The Running Game: Week Nine Everything is Terrible

Actually, it's not. The weather was good, I got over 14,000 steps, we're finally back in Standard time, and my official calculation is still above 500. The Gut picks are horrible because I hedged on the wrong games, but I am happy to see that my boyfriend's team won even while he was concussed.

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
ATL at TB	ATL	ATL	A Buccaneer win was not impossible on Thursday, but I stuck with ATL	ATL
JAX at KC	KC	KC	My boyfriend's concussion last week scared me, JAX	KC
DET at MIN	MIN	MIN	I'm thinking that this post-bye slump might continue, DET	DET
PHI at NYG	NYG	Split	I'm hedging with Gut picking PHI	NYG
DAL at CLE	DAL	DAL	I want to see 1 win for the Browns this season, but it won't be today, DAL	DAL
NYJ at MIA	NYJ	MIA	Nearly every one of my calculations is going with NYJ	MIA
PIT at BAL	PIT	PIT	Another, like the above, "should have hedged, in hindsight", PIT	BAL
NO at SF	NO	NO	Brees and the Saints are on a roll, NO	NO
CAR at LA	CAR	Split	Last week's win was big and should build some momentum for CAR	CAR
IND at GB	GB	GB	PAAAACCKKKKEERRRRSSSS! Don't let me down again!	IND
TEN at SD	TEN	Split	Everything is split, but I gotta go with Mariota and Murray, TEN	SD
DEN at OAK	OAK	Split	I want Oakland to win, but I am going to hedge this pick, DEN	...
BUF at SEA	SEA	SEA	WIIILLLSSSOOONNNNN! I think I'm gonna hedge, BUF	...

As for my Packers, something needs to improve. Right now, they certainly don't deserve to go to the playoffs. I mean, even the Texans can beat the Colts in their own house.

The Running Game: Week Nine Wait, What?

There were only the tiniest of doubts in my mind before tonight's game about Atlanta. However, by the time I got home, paid my rent, and turned on the TV to see them up by 20 points, I was glad the doubts never influenced my actions.

So, with game one of Week Nine in the books, let's look at how things might turn out in 2017:

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

NYG

Divisional

Divisional

DEN

A6

N5

PHI

Conference

Conference

BUF

A5

N3

SEA

N2

DAL

KC

A2

HOU

A3

N1

MIN

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

NE

A1

N1

MIN

KC

KC

A2

N2

DAL

Champions

KC

A2

N5

PHI

N1

MIN

NE

A1

BUF

A5

N3

SEA

HOU

A3

N4

ATL

PIT

A4

Yeah, no. But it is interesting how the AFC contains most of the usual suspects, but we have a notably missing Arizona, Carolina, and Green Bay, yet all three of the NFC East teams that DIDN'T make the post season last year. 

The Running Game: Week Eight No More Ties, Please

I was out at Houston's Renaissance Faire yesterday, and after I helped ward off the evil spirits during the upcoming dark months by dancing around the bonfire, we got back to the city after 1am, and I didn't get to bed until 3am. So, natch, I slept through the early early game, and even through kickoff for the early games. I showered before bed, mainly to get the bug spray out of my hair, so when I got up at about noon thirty, I very groggily put on clothing and went out the door to get some food. The Texans game was on, and they were doing well, thank goodness. They even went on to win, and that gave me opportunity to joke with a couple in Lions jerseys when they game into my regular eatery as I left: "Only winners, please'". I also chatted with a couple of guys in Lions jerseys, later in the day, after opening with the same line.

What is this bright stuff?

I did pretty well this week too, but I didn't predict the big upsets. 

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
JAX at TEN	TEN	TEN	I have to go with most of my calculations and the benchmarks TEN	TEN
WAS at CIN	CIN	Split	Bengals, all the way, CIN	tie
DET at HOU	HOU	Split	ALL of my calculations have this one the same, HOU	HOU
SEA at NO	SEA	SEA	NO? Yeah, no. SEA	NO
NE at BUF	NE	NE	Buffalo shut 'em out before, but it is a different game today, NE	NE
NYJ at CLE	NYJ	NYJ	No thought involved here, NYJ	NYJ
OAK at TB	OAK	Split	One of the benchmarks has these teams evenly rated, so OAK	OAK
KC at IND	KC	KC	My boyfriend's got this, KC	KC
GB at ATL	GB	Split	PAAAACCC (well, Atlanta is doing really well lately) KKKKERRSS!!!!!	ATL
SD at DEN	DEN	DEN	On the coast vs. a mile in the sky? DEN	DEN
ARI at CAR	ARI	Split	Benchmarks are split, calcs are saying ARI, but at home... CAR	CAR
PHI at DAL	DAL	DAL	Star Rookie vs. Star Rookie, emotional win for Philly, calc alignment PHI	...
MIN at CHI	MIN	MIN	The Bears still suck! MIN	...

The good news about the early early game is now all my win totals are whole numbers again, thank goodness.

The Running Game: Week Seven Introducing The Power Calculation

This week, I combined the Home and Away Advantage, Historical, and the Official calculations together to make, what I am dubbing, "The Power Calculation". It's one game behind the better Historical calculation, which is to be expected at this point. Due to an error entering a formula to count the wins, I was briefly thinking that I had made a calculation with a 70% accuracy last year, and 74% so far this year, but correcting that brought me down to earth.

It still did predict San Francisco's defeat of Minnesota in last year's Week One second Monday Night game, which seemed to surprise everyone else. But the 81% it got in Week One was more or less negated by a 38% showing in Week Two. This year, the showing is a bit better, with a total 69% accuracy for all 104 games already completed.

My Gut picks are doing very well this week too, so without further ado:

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
CHI at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!!	GB
NYG at LA	NYG	Split	The Rams could win, but their jet lag will be worse... NYG	NYG
NO at KC	KC	KC	My boyfriend will get this one done, KC	KC
IND at TEN	TEN	TEN	My other calculations say Colts, so I'm going for IND	IND
MIN at PHI	MIN	MIN	Philly could win this, but I gotta go with MIN	PHI
CLE at CIN	CIN	CIN	I had an inkling of a doubt at first, but it was an easy pick for CIN	CIN
WAS at DET	WAS	WAS	The Benchmarks were split before, but the new calcs all say DET	DET
OAK at JAX	OAK	Split	All the calculations pointed right at OAK	OAK
BUF at MIA	BUF	BUF	Miami? Seriously? No, BUF	MIA
BAL at NYJ	BAL	Split	The upset potential here is good, NYJ	NYJ
TB at SF	TB	Split	I think the 49ers can win this one, at home, SF	...
SD at ATL	ATL	ATL	Gotta go with Matty Ice and our boy, Julio on this one, ATL	...
NE at PIT	NE	NE	If they had Big Ben, I would have hedged my pick, but I gotta go with NE	...
SEA at ARI	SEA	Split	I'm splitting my pick here, ARI	...
HOU at DEN	DEN	DEN	Sorry, baby, but I can't see it working for you... DEN	...

PS: The Power Calculation matches my Gut Picks this week, except for NE at PIT, which gave me pause until I remembered that Big factor.