The Running Game: Preseason Predictions

Earlier this summer, I noticed that the site I had leveraged heavily for ranking different parts of teams last year was not putting out the same rankings this year. Since then, I've been working overtime to figure out what information I should use instead. I've discovered other rankings, played with weightings, and even created my own ranks from fantasy projections to get to a calculation that is one last data point away from the final product.

So, after all that, the NFC projections danced around a bit, but thanks to an easy early season and good projections, despite the 30 to 1 odds, Oakland is still predicted to win it all this year. Taking a look at their games this season, I don't see one that I would expect them to lose until week 12 when Carolina comes to town. Kansas City could have a chance in week 6, then maybe Denver in week 9, if their defense can make up for their unfortunate quarterback situation, and Houston has a chance, I guess. Still, I'm starting to wonder if a modest investment of my own isn't a bad idea. Of course, I'll know much more after Week 1.

Perhaps it's not just a distant memory.

The Running Game: Earlier Projections

The 2015 season, Free Agency, and Draft have all completed, and that means that about half of my initial calculation for predicting the winners and losers of Week 1 is ready. By projecting the other half of the points, filling in the schedules, and adding some very low and impossible point values to create potentially realistic Mid-Season calculation results, I can make an early prediction for the 2016 playoffs.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

NYG

Divisional

Divisional

PIT

A6

N4

PHI

Conference

Conference

KC

A5

N3

MIN

N3

MIN

CIN

A2

NE

A3

N1

CAR

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

OAK

A1

N1

CAR

OAK

OAK

A1

N2

ARI

Champions

CIN

A2

N5

SEA

N1

CAR

OAK

A1

KC

A5

N3

MIN

NE

A3

N4

PHI

JAX

A4

One thing I haven't done is update the rank-based color scheme for each team, so the current colors are based on the relative rank of the team at the beginning of the 2015 season. The colors range from dark red for "very bad" through orange, yellow, and light green to dark green for "very good".

Now, my numbers don't lie. They may not know what they're talking about, but they don't knowingly lie. So the fact that FootballLocks has Oakland at 40 to 1 odds of winning Super Bowl LI shouldn't stop you from putting all your money on the Raiders to go all the way. What should stop you from doing that is that this is the result from less than half of my entire calculation and we're a full 3 months away from the start of the Regular Season. I mean, I wish them the best, but if Oakland gets to the big game, I will eat my hat. Well, first I will get a hat, and then I will eat it.

Going for Two: Week Sixteen and My Power Rankings

Merry Christmas and Let's Go Oakland!

Interesting things happen when you play with numbers. On Sunday, I discovered which teams had the easiest and hardest seasons- according to my calculations. Then on Monday, I decided to multiply that number by the difference between average points scored by the team and against the team. Maybe things aligned with my Playoff predictions because I’m using the same numbers to create all these calculations, or maybe they align because I know what I’m doing. The calculation predicts the following:

	Conference								Conference
N2	ARI								CIN	A2
				Super Bowl
		N2	ARI		ARI		NE	A1
N1	CAR								NE	A1

So I ranked the numbers - giving the hardest season a 1, and the easiest a 32, and the most average net points a 1 and the least a 32. The outcome of that was further from reality than I could abide, so I scrapped it. Instead, I averaged the season difficulty number and multiplied that by the average net points. That produced the same results, but with less outlandish final numbers, I guess.

So now that I’ve completed my Mid-Season Calculation, I’m ready to post MY Power Rankings going into Week 16, and have commentary for the first ten eleven teams. Update for Week 16 Power Rankings below, with my rank, then the NFL rank in parentheses.

1 (3)	New England	::vomits:: Okay, sorry about that, a reflex, I guess. New England's season is just above average in difficulty, and they net over 11 points per game. The loss to Denver was ordained by the Football Gods because of Brady’s face, and Philadelphia was a fluke. Barring more intervention from the Football Gods, New England is Super Bowl bound.
2 (2)	Arizona	I've got Arizona winning the Super Bowl, but this week, they are only number two. They average more net points per game, but their season is just below average difficulty, and their most difficult opponents appear in Weeks 16 and 17: Green Bay and Seattle. If Arizona can produce in the next two weeks like they have in the last 8, they will win the Super Bowl.
3 (6)	Green Bay	Surprising here, based on the way they've been playing, and no, I do not rig these things: Green Bay has clawed its way to third place. Their net points are in the “good” range, but half that of Arizona or New England. It is only be by virtue of having the most difficult of all schedules this year (and winning 10 of their 14 games) that they rank so high. Unfortunately for them and me, they will get their asses handed to them by Arizona.... twice. Then again, if they can win in week 16, anything is possible.
4 (1)	Carolina	That’s right, the undefeated Panthers are just number 4 here because my numbers aren’t deluded by the undefeated season. It’s easy to be undefeated, frankly, when your division rivals are Tampa Bay and New Orleans and the AFC Division on your schedule happens to be the second worst Division in the league. They have the second easiest schedule in the league this year, but they have won by an average of 12 points every week, so they certainly aren't bad.
5 (4)	Seattle	In the last five games, Seattle has netted an average of 20 points per game, 25 in the last three games. Early losses notwithstanding, Seattle could make it back to the Conference Championship, if not the Super Bowl. Certainly if they can come out of Arizona in Week 17 as the victors. .
6 (5)	Pittsburgh	This team may not have fallen as far as Seattle this year, but it hasn't been the greatest season for Pittsburgh either. They have always been a threat, even without Big Ben, and recent defeats of Cincinnati and Denver, they’re finishing strong. Their last two opponents are the weaker division rivals, and they’re well poised to clinch that Wild Card spot.
7 (9)	Denver	A two game losing-streak and a major opponent coming to town. Is it time to bring back Peyton? Eh, probably not. They still have the best defense in the world and are projected to defeat Cincinnati.
8 (8)	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh was tough, but the toughest opponent you’ll face until the playoffs is this week. It seems like AJ McCarron could defeat Denver, if their warm-up against San Francisco can be trusted. With Baltimore schlepping into town during week 17, Cinci doesn’t really need the bye, but it would be nice.
9 (7)	Kansas City	San Francisco dumped him, and I’m somewhat uncomfortable with his new team, but Alex Smith is my boyfriend for a reason. They are playing Cleveland and Oakland for the last two weeks, and if Denver falters even once in that time, an AFC Playoff game will go through Kansas City.
10 (10)	New York Jets	After leaving Houston, it looks like the Buffalo Rider found a good home in New York with the Jets. He’s got a good receiver core and decent team that will end up with a record that should send the Jets to the playoffs. Should send them, that is, but won’t because, irony, the 9&7 Texans will go as AFC South Champions.
11 (11)	Minnesota	Minestrone is back down to number 11 with the updated ranks, but originally, I didn't write anything about them. Um, Adrian Peterson, other players that are good. They win games, just barely. They had an average net point value of 0.5 at this point.

Teams 12-32

		22 (19)	Tampa Bay
12 (15)	Buffalo	23 (25)	Miami
13 (16)	Houston	24 (26)	Indianapolis
14 (17)	Philadelphia	25 (30)	Dallas
15 (12)	Washington	26 (24)	Jacksonville
16 (20)	Atlanta	27 (21)	Detroit
17 (14)	New York GIants	28 (23)	Chicago
18 (18)	St. Louis	29 (29)	San Diego
19 (13)	Oakland	30 (27)	Cleveland
20 (28)	San Francisco	31 (32)	Tennessee
21 (22)	New Orleans	32 (31)	Baltimore

Going for Two: Week Eight Ups and Downs

The Gospel according to JJ: We played a lot better, and it was good. Houston did play a lot better, as expected. The Kitties defeated the Bumblebees to go 7 & 0 for the first time ever. After tonight, they will be one of three teams with that record, I just hope Denver isn't one of them. Tampa Bay somehow defeated Atlanta, but the big story is Oakland.

Oakland is definitely a Wild Card this year, and that doesn't necessarily mean that they will be a Wild Card pick, but that they are wild, and, I guess, they have cards, or something. They came from the bottom of the pack - #31 in my rankings - to defeat Baltimore, Cleveland, and San Diego, and were within one score of winning against Denver since then. But the Jets are really good this year, so I didn't expect them to lose to Oakland, much less by 14 points, but it happened. 

And the new numbers are in, both from the calculation tweaks and this week's wins. If all goes as The Ancient Oracle of Football predicts, the only playoff change is that Carolina is on top of the NFC South again. Of course, if events refuse to line up as the Ancient Oracle predicts, Carolina would, once again, be a Wild Card team, and the locations of playoff games might change up a little bit. Oh yeah, Philly is back in the playoffs, and the Giants are out, no matter how things shake out tonight and tomorrow.

In tonight's game, Denver has more to gain (13 to 16 wins) than Green Bay has to lose (16 to 15 wins), or so the numbers go. Personally, I'm not so sure about that. If Green Bay can just stop Denver's offense, because I really don't want to hear Collinsworth tell me that here's a guy from the Broncos who is really good. Eff the Broncos, Go Pack Go!

Going for Two: Just Before Regular Season Start

The 2015 regular season of the NFL starts next week and I'm starting with my first post for it today. I selected the name for these posts, "Running the Football" "Going for Two", based on the fact that this is the second consecutive season that I have committed to blogging [nearly] every week and created a spreadsheet to pick winners during* the season. In other words, this is possibly the start of a "streak", synonyms for which are period, spell, stretch, run, and patch. Of those, run relates most to football, hence "Running the Football".

I've been enjoying pre-season games for the last month and opened up my spreadsheet this weekend for the first time since March, when I entered in the Free Agency "Grades" as identified by CBS Sports. I made edits to the spreadsheet, including splitting the Master sheet into two and changing my "Ideal" ranks. Then I started making a calculation to determine the expectations this year based on performance last year and activity in the post and off seasons.

• 2014 Wins: All 2014 Regular & Post Season wins (Ties count for .5) and 1 point for getting into the playoffs.
• Free Agency Performance: Number out of 8 points based on a percentage identified by the Free Agency Grade, assuming that the grades are given based on an American college scale, with 1-2 percentage points gained or lost based on whether experts at the NFL identified the team as a "Winner" or "Loser" during the free agency period.
• Draft Performance: Number out of 4 points based on a percentage identified by dividing the number of points awarded in the NFL's Draft Class Power Rankings by 290, the points given to the highest ranked team.

It took a few passes to get to those decisions, with first giving a total possible 8 points for Free Agency and Draft, and giving whole number points from 1-8 for each grade (e.g. 8 for an A, 7 for a B+). After a conversation with a friend about the perils of the draft, I reduced the weight of the draft numbers to half of those for Free Agency. While Free Agents have played with NFL rules, college players have not. A well-rated college player's performance is less known. 

Next, I looked for additional rankings of Free Agency performance, but only found those "Winners" and "Losers" sites. Without a better ranking, I decided to apply a percentage to the grades so I could award points to the winners and losers without "bumping up their grade".

After entering these numbers, I sorted the points to determine how the teams will do this year. 

Team Rank		Points		Team Rank		Points
1	New England Patriots	14.81		17	Minnesota Vikings	10.01
2	Green Bay Packers	14.56		18	Buffalo Bills	9.97
3	Dallas Cowboys	14.39		19	Cleveland Browns	9.95
4	Seattle Seahawks	13.89		20	Carolina Panthers	9.60
5	Denver Broncos	13.09		21	San Francisco 49ers	9.59
6	Indianapolis Colts	12.99		22	Atlanta Falcons	8.94
7	Baltimore Ravens	12.67		23	New Orleans Saints	8.91
8	Arizona Cardinals	11.94		24	New York Giants	8.77
9	Cincinnati Bengals	11.91		25	Chicago Bears	8.68
10	Pittsburgh Steelers	11.51		26	New York Jets	8.38
11	Detroit Lions	11.39		27	St. Louis Rams	7.85
12	Houston Texans	11.26		28	Washington Racists	7.67
13	Philadelphia Eagles	10.62		29	Jacksonville Jaguars	7.59
14	Miami Dolphins	10.59		30	Tennessee Titans	6.61
15	San Diego Chargers	10.45		31	Oakland Raiders	6.58
16	Kansas City Chiefs	10.21		32	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.66

I've had a couple peer reviews of these rankings and while those peers put some teams higher or lower, there is general approval of the overall picture. I can only offer my apologies to Oakland and Tampa Bay.

These numbers will be used for the first five week of the season, in diminishing importance each week (e.g. 100% for Week 1, 80% for Week 2, and down), before total wins and losses are the only ranking factor.

*I didn't pay much attention to the 2013 season due to other factors, but I did create a spreadsheet and fill in the information, including my likely 'gut' picks. Because I didn't know the outcome of most of the games, those picks were somewhat accurate, but it is likely that they skewed more accurate based on what I did know. I tried to focus only on the number of wins for the team and who Football Locks identified as the favorite.