Oh Yeah, Football: Superb Owl

Early predictions of Jacksonville's wild success this year proved true but the freight train that is New England is back in the Super Bowl this year anyway. I've done a lot of analysis since my last post and my playoff predictions are 7 for 10 and the benchmarks are 5 and 6 for 10.

On one hand, New England is the easy favorite and a blow-out is possible. On the other, it looks like Philly thrives on being an underdog. With my calculation, it turns out that Philly is just barely an underdog, with 9.8 points to New England's 10. Basically, the teams have an equal score and we can consider New England the favorite as if they were the home team.

PHI NE Upset Rates Accuracy Rates Specific 88% (7 of 8) 100% (1 of 1) Overall 60% 86%

New England simply has not faced many opponents at home that were evenly matched. There are 5 more games at home where they had 1 point over the underdog and they won all those games.

This may look like a shoe-in for New England, but there is a lot to be said in Philadelphia's upset rates. They blew out Minestrone with a 53% Upset Rate to Minnesota's 71% accuracy rate. We can only $%#&ing hope.

The Running Game: Divisional Clairvoyance

On Friday, my personal trainer asked me for a prediction on the final points for the Texans and Patriots game. I knew the spread was 16 (in favor of New England, of course) and was reminded by a friend from the night before that Houston was shut out by New England in Week 3, who scored 27 points with their 3rd string quarterback. Oh, and the Texans very rarely score more than 17 points per game.

With those facts in mind, my prediction was that New England's score would be above 30, and Houston wouldn't be shut out again, but their score wouldn't be better than mid-teens. This was later repeated to a few other individuals, one that questioned the Patriots' ability to score more than 30 points against the league's best defense, but I held strong.

Not that I wanted the Patriots to win tonight. There are very few things I want to see less than Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, and one of them is him holding that Lombardi Trophy. Their elimination from the playoffs tonight would have been a relief. And I say this even though the elimination of the Texans from the playoffs means that I win $50. Like every other decent American citizen, my hatred for the Patriots runs deep.

Well, anyway, the game finished a few hours ago, so let's take a look at that score...

BOOM

The Running Game: Week Fifteen Packers in the Super Bowl?!?

And just like that, with Minestone and Detroit losing, my calculation not only has the Packers winning the NFC North, but sweeping through the playoffs to the Super Bowl, only to lose to New England. Honestly, after their performance mid-season, not to mention letting today's game against the freaking Bears get down to the wire, I don't know how to feel about this.

Giving up 17 in Q4 is not cool, Packers, not cool at all.

I also really, really do not want to see my Packers lose to New England. I don't want to see any team lose to New England, but especially not my team. But that's what the calculation says for the Super Bowl, not what may actually happen.

Except for the "Complete opposite" bracket, all of these let the calculation pick the Super Bowl winner.

Ah, screw it, I'm a Packer fan, and since the calculation does not pick the Packers, regardless* of the AFC opponent, that can only mean one thing...

PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL!!!

Huzzah! Come on, A-a-ron and McCartney! WE CAN DO THIS!

*No, I won't consider the other possible playoff teams. :P

The Running Game: Week Five More Than a Feeling

So Week 5 and Brady is back. Right away, they began to slay the Cleveland Browns. A friend sent me a text saying that he must be angry. Well, I can't blame him. I mean, the only thing that is his fault is not cooperating with the deflategate investigation by not turning over his phone records, but I understand why. He was texting smack talk about other players, which is his right, but no one wants that kind of thing made public.

Angry Brady's "icy stare of death" courtesy of CBS Sports.

In other words, the suspension was for a bullshit reason, and it isn't his fault that his first game back is against the local pee-wee team. Let's see how he fares against... well, I'm not really sure that there is a team truly on par with the Patriots right now. Pittsburgh? Green Bay in Lambeau? Don't get me wrong, I still hate them, but they're damn good. There is no denying that.

The other big story this week is my picks. Once again, my calculation's picks were identical to those of my benchmarks, and I'm not sure what to make of it. Knowing the success rate of those metrics, I made some upset predictions in my Gut picks and am a little taken aback:

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
ARI at SF	ARI	ARI	Palmer is out, but Stanton is decent and Larry Fitzgerald. ARI	ARI
NE at CLE	NE	NE	AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA NE	NE
PHI at DET	PHI	PHI	Last week must have stung Detroit, and Philly isn't 4-0 good. DET	DET
CHI at IND	IND	IND	Personally, I think Luck is overrated, but Chicago is Chicago. IND	IND
TEN at MIA	MIA	Split	Miami is not very good, and the Titans have Murray now. TEN	TEN
WAS at BAL	BAL	BAL	I just don't think Baltimore can win this one. WAS	WAS
HOU at MIN	MIN	MIN	Oh, Osweiler, how I love you, but I'm so sorry. MIN	MIN
NYJ at PIT	PIT	PIT	Jets? Yeah, no. PIT	PIT
ATL at DEN	DEN	DEN	Siemian is out, and Matty Ice is on fire. ATL	ATL
CIN at DAL	CIN	Split	Dak Prescott is the new Tom Brady, only more likeable. DAL	DAL
BUF at LA	LA	Split	Buffalo shut out New England, and the benchmarks are split. BUF	BUF
SD at OAK	OAK	OAK	LET'S GO OAK-LAND! OAK	OAK
NYG at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!!	...

What?

The Running Game: Week One Last Minute Predictability

Earlier today, after the cable guy fixed my connection and sound came on my TV, while the early games were on, I was a little worried. Okay, a LOT worried. Oakland was down, Minnesota was down, Cincinnati was down, Kansas City was WAY down, Buffalo, Atlanta, and Houston were down. Even Green Bay was down for a second - and they never had a comfortable lead. But, as I always tell myself, nothing matters before the half. Houston came back and kicked ass, Green Bay managed a win, as did Cinci and Minnesota, Oakland took a risk that paid off in a 2-point conversion to win, and Kansas City won in overtime. Only Atlanta and Buffalo let me down, but I don't even really care. I didn't stay home for the late games, and I actually didn't watch them as I had to go for a walk to get more than 2,700 steps on the day. I walked all around, took over both gyms at Baldwin Park, then started on a long trek for fancy confectioneries.

V H Win 69% CAR DEN DEN CAR TB ATL TB ATL MIN TEN MIN MIN CLE PHI PHI PHI CIN NYJ CIN CIN OAK NO OAK OAK SD KC KC KC BUF BAL BAL BUF CHI HOU HOU HOU GB JAX GB GB MIA SEA SEA SEA NYG DAL NYG NYG DET IND DET IND

Now I'm home - I got home in time to see the second half of the Sunday Night game, and for the Patriots, sometimes, it's better to be lucky than to be good. Okay, that's a little unfair because I'm bitter that Arizona lost. Oh well, I was 500 for the later games today, and I'm hoping Pittsburgh and Los Angeles don't let me down.

Going for Two: Conference Championship Blues

I felt it when New England didn't score on their first drive. I'd wondered why they elected to receive when they won the coin toss. The teevee always told me that Belichick liked to have the last possession of the first half and the first of the second. But the teevee said today that this decision secured "one more possession" for New England.

They should have gone with their normal procedure. Denver scored first, and New England kept punting, until that first touchdown. I figured that was the start of their eventual win, but then Mr. Perfect missed, and Denver was still leading. Scores kept happening, low scores, but New England was never in the lead. They should have gone for field goals on 4th down at least twice (or maybe just once, I forget) in the the 4th quarter. But they didn't. They didn't get the 2-point conversion, they didn't get the onside kick, and they didn't get the AFC Championship. That loss cost me one thousand theoretical dollars. Of course, as with every New England loss, it was worth it. And this one was so worth it. Oh, and this video is a thing of beauty.

Arizona was down 10 to nothing at the end of the first quarter, but Carolina going up early was to be expected. Arizona made a better showing than the Seahawks did, at least in the first half, but then fell apart as Carolina soared. The Panthers lulled us into a false security by not scoring in the second half last week. Or maybe it wasn't Arizona's year. Maybe that will be next year, for the first time in 70 years. Better than the Cubs, I guess.

So my Super Bowl prediction was completely wrong, but the one team that everyone thought was a lock lost, so it could be worse. It means that the 4th worst possible outcome of these Playoffs was prevented. Fourth or fifth, or something, whatever, but the other worst outcomes had already been prevented. The last remaining worst outcomes are now out since the Patriots aren't going to Super Bowl 50.

I would have liked to see an Arizona and Denver Super Bowl, and I would like to see Peyton Manning go out on top, but it won't happen. Don't get me wrong, I don't particularly care for Manning, but as I told a friend earlier today, anyone that unfortunate looking has my sympathy, at least. Denver may have the best defense, but these last two weeks have convinced me. Carolina is going to kick their ass.

Going for Two: Conference Championship Interim Post

I wanted to post earlier this week, but even now, I am typing one-handed while my my other hand dangles a toy for my beloved Bruno. This cat, I swear. I waved a toy or flashed the laser toy for almost the entire Packer game last weekend and he would STILL cry when I stopped doing anything. And I could handle the crying (or meowing) if I wasn't worried about what always happened after the meowing, which was knocking things over. My poor baby is bored, I know, but he has a million toys, seriously. Anyway, I have found the NFL Power Rankings for this week, and the NFL is still in love with Carolina. After that opening half, I'm less inclined to think they are wrong. I still think Arizona will win, but that isn't stopping me from hedging my picks. I'm putting Carolina as my Gut pick, but I'm not doing the same for Denver. It's possible that Denver could win, and FSM knows that I want them to, I just don't think they will. New England is going to the Super Bowl, there isn't really much we can do about it other than enjoy a Disappointed Brady Google Image Search.

He used to entertain himself.

Anyway, Bruno just knocked over the box of markers, and while he's laid down for the moment, he's looking at me - oh, he's up now. What I mean is that I can't post my Power Ranks yet. I need to stop typing because my 14-pound fur baby needs me. 

Going for Two: Divisional Round Review

With my first two picks being accurate this weekend, I was going to hold off on blogging lest it jinx me, but with Seattle down 31 to nothing at the half, I've got nothing to lose. Saturday was very bittersweet, since I predicted New England and Arizona, and they both won, but I would have been perfectly happy with them losing. With the AFC game, it was more about New England losing and a partial desire to see my boyfriend succeed. As for the other game, a Packer win would have wreaked havoc with my predictions, but it would have had me jumping for joy. As it was, I'm happy for the Cardinals, cuz it's their year.

The best part of last night's game had to be trash talking in the comments section of my favorite blogger's Facebook threads. Before the Week 16 game, he had asked if the Packers and their fans had "ever considered sucking it", though it appears that he has removed that post. Regardless, when he warned readers that he was about to go all football for a few hours, I opted to respond in kind.

Miracles can only win games so often.

Ed confessed his fear of A-A-Ron, expressed surprise at all the 3rd down conversions from the Packers, whined about missed calls, whined about his team,  gave up, bitched about Cris Collinsworth, but mostly about missed calls, dropped a few posts that have since been removed, and finally, expressed his appreciation for Wisconsin. He lost a few dozen followers with that night, but what a night it was. In the end, the better team won. I kind of wished that Larry Fitzgerald had finished his spectacular run in the end zone, but at least he got the TD in the end.

When Ed gave up, I saw a comment further down-thread that made an egregious false comparison. I made a short reply last night, then followed up this morning. This comment was researched and took about an hour to construct. The response I got was, simply, Touché, which not enough people use. Below is the comment, in its entirety, with sources linked.

In terms of their respective rank in their conferences, yes. KC and GB had impressive victories over the champions of the two garbage divisions. They both went to the home stadium of the number 2 seed and were projected to lose. They both scored 20 points, nearly came back to win, and lost by a touchdown. They both have very attractive quarterbacks (though while I <3 Alex Smith, in terms of skill, he is no A-A-Ron), but that is where the similarities, for the most part, end. There might be similarities between the Patriots and the Cardinals, but they're not important. The Patriots won their 4th Super Bowl last year (Super Bowl XLIX, or ex-lix, as I like to call it) and have been to 4 others. In the last 14 Super Bowls, half of them have included the New England Patriots, and they're probably going to Super Bowl 50. In that same time, the Cardinals have made the playoffs four times, including their only Super Bowl appearance, which they lost in 2008. They have not won an NFL Championship since they were the Chicago Cardinals in 1947. The other difference is that New England is getting a little stale this year, while Arizona is on fire. I'm predicting that they will get the Lombardi trophy in Super Bowl 50, and while this is my first year doing serious NFL predictions, I'm 6 for 6 in the playoffs and 68% on the regular season (which I'm told is good).

For the record, Ed was not actually done.

Kansas City started the season in a massive hole, while Green Bay was playing like a championship team. The former team went on to win 11 straight games, while the Packers lost to the Lions, Bears, and Vikings *at home.* Kansas City won one Super Bowl, in 1969, which was the last of the two that they have been to. In the last 15 years (14 Super Bowls), they have been to the playoffs 5 times, and have only gotten to the Divisional Round twice. The Packers, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl wins in 5 appearances, have made the postseason 12 times since the 2001 season, have been in 8 Divisional Round games, and three Conference Championship games. It is much more like KC=ARI and NE=GB. I could write you at least one more paragraph about how that last comparison doesn't hold up, but I've had my fun this morning for this thread.

And in the time it took me to write this post (and exercise, shower, and make plans with friends), Seattle came back to lose, like the other two losers this week, by a single touchdown. My record for the playoffs is now 6 & 1, and with only 4 more games left to go, I'm guaranteed to be over 500.

Going for Two: Wild Card Ranks and Divisional Picks

The NFL is once again hypnotized by a 15 & 1 record and a 30-0 blow out, never considering how easy it is to be undefeated when 5 of those games were against the Romo-less Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Tampa Bay, twice. Okay, so they defeated Seattle and the Packers, just barely, but the Falcons figured them out for the second round, and I can't imagine that the Seahawks won't also. As for Kansas City, well, that's all in my Power Ranks. As much as I <3 Alex "Not great, but good enough*" Smith, I'm not stupid. At least I know that New England won't shut them out.

My calculation for the Divisional Round has Seattle, Arizona, Denver, and New England. My Gut picks follow those, but I'm compelled to type GB where my brain says ARI should be. I can't help it, I feel a very 2010 vibration in the air.

1 (2)	Arizona +1	Arizona reclaimed the top spot by virtue of Seattle's slim win up in frozen TFC Stadium. For their sake, lets hope the rest did them well, because the Packers are coming to town with a chip on their shoulder and a whole mess of lessons learned.
2 (4)	Seattle -1	Seattle could still get back to the Super Bowl this year, especially after their demolition of the Carinals in Week 17, but it will take a lot more than a great catch and scrambling QB this time.
3 (6)	New England	The rest should have been good for New England, and they are taking on an overrated Kansas City. Still, it will warm my heart to see them lose this weekend.
4 (3)	Kansas City +5	Kansas City is not nearly as good as my rating implies. Had Weeden been put in, he might have put up 7, 10, or more points on the board, instead of turning the ball over on every single drive. In fact, if Houston had only scored a field goal in that game, Kansas City would be down at number 5 right now. Had they only won by 20, they'd be just below Green Bay.
5 (1)	Carolina -1	Carolina slips only because Kansas City is so overrated, but odds are that Seattle will steamroll over them.
6 (7)	Green Bay	The Pack is BACK! Of course, they were playing the worst of all of the teams in the Playoffs this year, but they have already played Arizona and now have something to prove. Is this a repeat of the 2010 post-season? Packer fans can only hope.
7 (5)	Denver +1	Denver edged up again by virtue of the slim win of the team just beneath them, which happens to be coming to town this weekend. Denver has a stronger defense than the Bengals, but the quarterback situation is a tricky one.
8 (8)	Pittsburgh -1	The Steelers broke many Bengals hearts over the weekend. Well, sort of. The Bengals broke many Bengals hearts this weekend with bonehead mistakes and letting their emotions overrule their skill. Pittsburgh and Denver are nearly evenly matched in my calculation. Is this a repeat of the 2010 post-season? Packer fans can only hope.
9 (9)	Minnesota -4	Poor, poor Minestrone. They are the first of the losers on my list. They lost by a mistake made by the same guy that was responsible for all of their points during the game. However, if they were actually a better team, they would have scored at least one touchdown and Blair Walsh wouldn't be crying himself to sleep right now. But then again, that means that I couldn't watch these every day (and I do, they're beautiful).
10 (10)	Cincinnati	Again, can we say boneheaded? Exactly, Cinci, you made your own bed, now man up and lie in it. Maybe next year, you'll have some discipline and be able to win a primetime game.
11 (12)	Houston	As it was explained to me today, it appears that the Texans coach threw Hoyer under the bus. Had he been taken out in the second quarter, Weeden could have finished a few drives and put some points on the board.
12 (11)	Washington	And we saved the worst for last. This team is thankfully out of the playoffs this year. Let's hope that Cousins is snatched up by another team in Free Agency and they return to the bottom of the barrel.

*That's a quote from a Kansas City fan that came down to near where my tickets were.

Going for Two: Week Thirteen Lackluster Performances

Houston, Minnesota, Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England, and my calculations were all poor performers this week. At best, most of my calculations, including the Mid-Season, will get 63% while Points and my Gut picks get 75%, and actually, that's not very bad. However, the NFL Power Ranking benchmark is at 69% and the Football Locks benchmark is looking at a stunning 88%, which is the highest one-week percentage of any predictions I'm tracking.

No one predicted Chicago or New England's losses, with the exception of my Ideal picks, but Football Locks knew more about Tennessee, while they and my Gut were right about Buffalo and Seattle. Interesting, and frankly, surprising that the Patriots followed suit with the other undefeated teams starting with the Packers of being unable to lose just one game and bounce back. That thing I said about losses being absolutely detrimental certainly rang true for the Packers, Denver, Cincinnati, and now New England. The Panthers better hope that their first loss doesn't happen in Week 17.

As for my picks, I waffled earlier today about the Sunday Night Game, but came back to predicting a Steelers win. The Packers might be able to come back from a 20 point deficit, but the Colts won't be overcoming their 25 point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter. I'm unlikely to watch tomorrow's game even though I've heard a lot about this Cousins guy and wouldn't mind seeing Dallas lose. I just can't stomach that logo or tolerate hearing that racial slur for three or more hours. I'm glad to hear fewer mentions of the mascot on TV, and no one seems to be touting this upcoming game as "Cowboys and Indians", thank goodness. Still, it's time to change the name.

Going for Two: Week Twelve Scared Sh*tless

That was the feeling I got from Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's press conferences with ESPN. Tom Brady was talking about how the Denver defensive players were some of the best he's ever seen, and Belichick said, with a shaky voice, the team that plays the best will win. Between the lines, I could hear, "I'm really scared," and "I don't want to talk about this." They looked scared.

Today, Detroit beat the pants off of the Eagles, Carolina defeated Dallas, and Green Bay is up on Chicago. This is going to be a good football week.

Going for Two: Week Ten What the...

This is just insane. INSANE. There's people nodding up and down the line, with grocery bags on their heads. Dollar bills pasted on to their faces, squeegees in their hands. There is no other explanation. Now take a look at this sexy jackass, hamming it up for the camera. He might be our only hope for an NFC Super Bowl win, if the AFC winner can't be the Bengals. Really, I don't care, just as long as it's not Tom friggen' Brady.

At least they're still undefeated.

I mean really, where do we go from here? Is anything knowable any more? Football Locks pulled in 21% - that's a total of three, out of fourteen, correct predictions. They would have done better just picking at random. Home teams, which had previously won at a rate of 58% of the time, were just as successful. It's gotta be Ditka and Rice in those Packers and Cowboys apparel ads. I don't know, but whoever picked upsets this weekend made a shitload of money, that's for sure.

Going for Two: Week Six & Too Much Stress

Actually, the stress happened last week, when I found myself panicking about the possibility that a team I like (San Francisco) might beat a team I really don't like (New York Giants), but thank goodness, for my calculation and my picks, they didn't. My calculation proved itself again that Monday, when Pittsburgh won, and so far, it's at 75%, while my own picks are at about 58%.

Today, the Packers stressed me out a lot too, with a defense that just couldn't stop the goddamn Chargers. But they came together at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and Goal at the end of the game to win the game, 27 to 20. I actually jumped up when that defender batted the ball away from the receiver on 4th down, and I know that we can't win them all, but damn it feels good to be 6 & 0.

So then I went home to watch SNF and put in the results from the weekend so far only to discover that, no matter what happens tonight or tomorrow, the Packers are now predicted to go 15 & 1. I started going through my sheets for each week - Bye on 7, still predicted to defeat Denver in 8, lose to Carolina in 9? Damn. Now Carolina is projected to be undefeated, with only New England and Cincinnati in the 16 & 0 party. But if New England loses tonight, they fall to 13 & 3. I can tell you that I won't mind a New England loss, and it definitely looks like a possibility right now.

Going for Two: Optimized Calculation

After my first post, I began working with my calculation more, then put the numbers into the charts for each week to see how the season might shake out. The results made for a very even distribution of records, with a couple teams having perfect seasons and just as many not getting a win at all. The top two teams, my prospective Super Bowl teams, were the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC and the Miami Dolphins in the AFC.

I mentioned this to two of the people that did my Peer Reviews, and one said, "I will give you $100 if Miami gets to the Super Bowl," but had more optimism about the Cardinals. This prompted me to make more changes. I changed up the numbers that went into the charts for each week by rounding the value to the nearest whole number and added the points from my ranking to the weekly chart through Week 8, but reducing the point value by 10% each week. This rounding and prolonging the effect of those initial points helped by making the final records of each team fall into a more normal distribution. I also hard coded a win for New England to get them from 8&8 to 11&5, because yeah. I may hate the Patriots, but I'm not stupid.

The other major change was to add more data, including Depth Chart Rankings and the ranks for Offenses, Defenses, and Special Teams. This change took considerably more time, both from data entry, figuring out how to weight the different values, and then combining the information into a single number that still fit my 16-point scale. Oh, and I pulled all of that into its own spreadsheet, the apparently simplicity of which masking all of the hours that were poured into it.

This moved the team ranks around, but did not change the Bottom 5 teams. WAS, and JAX made the last of the 20's, and TEN, OAK, and TB received 30, 31, and 32, respectively. New England, Green Bay, and Seattle bounced around a little, but ended up in the top 3. Most of the other top ranked teams from my simpler calculation remained up at the top, but Arizona was the biggest loser, going from number 8 to 16.

Given all the work that I did on my spreadsheet, I'm not about to work on describing it any more, or copy the results into this post. I will say that, after all of that work, Miami still makes it to the Super Bowl.

Back to Football: Divisional Drama

This weekend's games were very exciting and somewhat predictable. I went out on a limb and predicted a Baltimore upset and tentatively picked Denver to win at home, then ended up getting the entire AFC Championship game wrong. Baltimore lost me $50 in a friendly bet yesterday too. The AFC Championship game is going to be pretty boring - certainly in terms of colors. My preference is for Indianapolis to win, but I am not sure that they can defeat the Patriots. 

But the NFC Championship is exactly as predicted - Green Bay is going to Seattle. On one hand, the Seahawks are young, hungry killers on the field. Cocky assholes that can put their playing where their mouths are, and they're awfully fun to watch. On the other hand, they weren't able to blow out the 7&9 Carolina Panthers yesterday, and the Packers came from behind to defeat the possibly-better-than-them Dallas Cowboys. Perhaps, the Seahawks just phoned it in, while Green Bay had to claw a win out of this weekend. Maybe, Seattle has a false sense of security and the Packers are actually ready. I guess that we'll know next week. 

Honestly, I really don't care who wins the NFC Championship next week. Of course, I would love for the Packers to win, then go on to win the Super Bowl, I mean, obviously. But I've developed a major football-crush on this Seahawks team. First, there is "the best corner in the game", not the league, the m&th*#f&*#ing game, who's also got a great sense of humor, then their running back is not only good, he's a bastion of gratitude and generosity too, and their quarterback is from UW Madison. But whoever does win this game, I can only hope they are prepared to take the Lombardi Trophy home. 

Back to Football: Week Thirteen Already?

I guess that's how goes when you forget to post for Week Twelve, but it was a good one for me with 80% correct. Thursday was good too, with 2 for 3 - only Dallas let me down.

Green Bay hosts New England this weekend, and it has me cautiously pumped. The Packers are playing more like their 2011 selves,  but the Pats are 9 and 2 for a reason. We'll see.

Back to Football: Week Four Return

What's up Kansas City! My long lost, estranged boyfriend threw 13 touchdown passes yesterday to beat the apparently pathetic Patriots 41-14 last night.

I've updated my potential earning calculations to only pay out $4 for successfully picking the 'favorite' to win and $7 to pick the 'upset.' After running my numbers, I realized that bookies actually have to make money on taking bets. These new numbers, when applied to the 2012 season, create the following numbers.

0%	-$2	-13%	-$211	9%	$144	-20%	-$325.
Favorite		Upset		Gut		Ideal

Always betting on the 'Favorite' for every game would nearly mean you break even. Betting on the 'Upset' would cost you $211, and betting on teams I liked would have been the worst of all. The next addition to my calculation will probably be a column where I define the 'odds' and increase the payout for a successful 'Upset' pick by that number. Perhaps it could be the difference in wins between the teams.

I also added some conditional formatting to indicate which teams were Good, Bad, and Mediocre in 2013. This should help me make better picks, unless it doesn't.