The Running Game: Week Fifteen Packers in the Super Bowl?!?

And just like that, with Minestone and Detroit losing, my calculation not only has the Packers winning the NFC North, but sweeping through the playoffs to the Super Bowl, only to lose to New England. Honestly, after their performance mid-season, not to mention letting today's game against the freaking Bears get down to the wire, I don't know how to feel about this.

Giving up 17 in Q4 is not cool, Packers, not cool at all.

I also really, really do not want to see my Packers lose to New England. I don't want to see any team lose to New England, but especially not my team. But that's what the calculation says for the Super Bowl, not what may actually happen.

Except for the "Complete opposite" bracket, all of these let the calculation pick the Super Bowl winner.

Ah, screw it, I'm a Packer fan, and since the calculation does not pick the Packers, regardless* of the AFC opponent, that can only mean one thing...

PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL!!!

Huzzah! Come on, A-a-ron and McCartney! WE CAN DO THIS!

*No, I won't consider the other possible playoff teams. :P

Going for Two: Week Seventeen Preview and Picks

There is no Thursday Night, Saturday Night, or Monday Night Football this week and it's messing with me. Everything for Week Seventeen is crammed into Sunday, with ten games starting at noon, five at 3:25, and a single prime time game featuring the Vikings and my Packers to decide the winner of the NFC North. It's in Lambeau, but that doesn't mean what it used to - not with Detroit and Chicago having won there this year. But it's been a good week, and it's a new year, so hope springs eternal.

Here are my picks for Week 17:

	Games			Calculated Winner	Benchmark Winner	Gut Picks
N O O N G A M E S	NO	at	ATL	ATL (63%)	ATL (61%)	ATL
	NYJ	at	BUF	NYJ (53%)	NYJ (61%)	NYJ
	DET	at	CHI	CHI (43%)	DET (61%)	DET
	BAL	at	CIN	CIN (63%)	CIN (61%)	CIN
	PIT	at	CLE	PIT (63%)	PIT (61%)	PIT
	WAS	at	DAL	WAS (53%)	DAL (31%)	WAS
	JAX	at	HOU	HOU (63%)	HOU (61%)	HOU
	TEN	at	IND	IND (63%)	IND (61%)	IND
	NE	at	MIA	NE (63%)	NE (61%)	NE
	PHI	at	NYG	NYG (32%)	NYG (61%)	NYG
L A T E	SEA	at	ARI	ARI (63%)	ARI (61%)	ARI
	TB	at	CAR	CAR (63%)	CAR (61%)	CAR
	SD	at	DEN	DEN (63%)	DEN (61%)	DEN
	OAK	at	KC	KC (63%)	KC (61%)	KC
	STL	at	SF	STL (53%)	STL (61%)	STL
PT	MIN	at	GB	GB (63%)	GB (61%)	GB

The percentages next to the calculated and benchmark winners represent the average accuracy for that metric and are an attempt to identify the possibility that this will be right. For example, the Benchmark Winners combines two metrics and together, they are 61% accurate. If they both pick that team, the percent is 61%. If only one metric picks that team, then the percent is lower to reflect that. The Calculated Winners combine 6 different metrics with an overall average accuracy of 63%  and range from 59% to 67% accurate.

My Gut picks, which have a 63% accuracy rating this year, are sometimes adjusted based on disagreement between the calculations and/or benchmark, as well as things I know. In this case, I'm going with the calculation with the 67% accuracy rating except for the Detroit at Chicago game - Detroit is just a better team than Chicago. I almost switched up the Philly at NY Giants game, but am sticking with the Giants because they will have Odell Beckham back. There is something to be said for the firing of Chip Kelly, but that could really go either way.

Going for Two: Week Fifteen Wrap Up

Again, the worst my Mid-Season calculation can do is the best any metric has done this year. At best, it will tie the Wins & Home calculation for Week 14 in 2013 and my Gut* prediction for 2013.. For a little while, it looked like I was headed there, but the Lions are up by 15 points half-way through the 4th quarter, so Mid-Season is at 88%. Here are the times when any metrics reached that mark or higher in the past 4 years.

2012 Week 2: Home Field Advantage 88% Week 11: Football Locks 93% Week 17: Wins & Home 88%

2013 Week 8: Wins 92% Week 8: Wins & Home 92% Week 14: Football Locks 88% Week 14: Early Calculation 88% Week 14: Home Field Advantage 88% Week 14: Wins 88% Week 14: Wins & Home 94% Week 15: Gut 94%*

2014 (none)

2015 (none)

*These picks were made during 2014, with the knowledge of the season outcome for many teams, but without knowing the actual outcomes of any regular-season games. 

The Saints could have actually won this game, with 6 seconds left, but somehow, the receivers cannot catch a ball to save their lives. And with that, Week 15 comes to a close

Going for Two: Week Thirteen Still Talking

I should post about other games today, and maybe I will, or maybe that will wait to tomorrow. I've been watching replays and reactions. Some considered it subdued, but Wayne Larrivee and Larry McCarren's commentary was only that if you have never heard them before. They're old-timers, they're been there through the good years in the Glory Days, the bad decades that followed, the comeback in the 90's, Rodgers' Super Bowl, and if you can't hear the excitement in their voices, well, maybe you need to read it.

One last un-timed play... scrambles to his left, under pressure, rolling right, he escapes! Right side looking, rainbows high and deep in to the end zone! And it is CAUGHT! CAUGHT FOR A TOUCHDOWN! A LEAPING TOUCHDOWN CATCH IS MADE AND THE PACKERS HAVE WON! Unbelievable. - The Packers Radio Network

The catch heard round the world.

The silence from the Lions radio announcer speaks more than the rest of the words. I don't really understand Portuguese, but I understand excitement, and this is definitely the best broadcast of what will be the play of the year. And now for the dramatization a 61 yard and season-saving throw of which I am glad to be on the good side. Don't forget to check out the video from the stands that showed the play from the side and just how close the ball got to the rafters.

It was an incredible moment for Packer fans. I can't remember just how many times I told my "where was I" moment about turning off the game to ease my stress level, seeing a promising Facebook comment, the 27 to 23 score, then turning the TV back on again in time to see the replay. My mother called me this weekend to relay the experience of her and my dad, and we just can't stop watching and sharing the videos.

Aaron Rodgers breathless interview at the end of the game showed that the difference in the psychological effect between a win and a loss is real, and this one is huge. An emotionally positive win can give a team the edge they need to win an upset the next week. On the other hand, a loss is complete in its devastation. There may be wins that count for more than others, but awarding partial points for losses only made my calculations less accurate. In fact, subtracting partial points for a loss can increase the accuracy for some of my calculations. The Packers have a lot of things to work on, but Dallas limps into town next week and I will be very surprised to see that Rodgers scowl for a while.

Going for Two: Week Thirteen Hope

This team was undefeated until the bye. They hadn't lost a single game in 2011 until the bye. They're 1 & 4 after the bye, and now, they will break a, what, 56 game streak of not being scoreless in the first half? This is BULL ISH. I mean, something HAS to be happening, psychologically, with someone on that offense. Is it Jordy? They're apparently down three offensive linemen? Is Aaron just not feeling it anymore? Every time I see his face, he looks just miserable - depressed and miserable. It appears that the Lions have fired some people and now they're ON FIRE. Maybe the Packers should take a play out of that book and shake some things up. I mean... what the... Maybe I should just watch that C. J. Anderson touchdown run again and enjoy me some Brady tears. ~fumble at the 5, Cobb recovers in the end zone, Packers have 7~ So that ^^ just happened. ~14 points later~ I turned the TV off when Detroit had the ball and was checking the score as it showed up on Facebook. Then, a college friend (and Packer fan) commented "Holy shit!!!", I looked over, and it was 27 to 23... The TV went right back on to see the replay of a Rodgers to Rodgers 70 yard Hail Mary touchdown. Then I saw a great interview with a breathless Aaron Rodgers, now with renewed hope. 8 & 4 feels pretty nice.

Going for Two: Week Twelve Scared Sh*tless

That was the feeling I got from Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's press conferences with ESPN. Tom Brady was talking about how the Denver defensive players were some of the best he's ever seen, and Belichick said, with a shaky voice, the team that plays the best will win. Between the lines, I could hear, "I'm really scared," and "I don't want to talk about this." They looked scared.

Today, Detroit beat the pants off of the Eagles, Carolina defeated Dallas, and Green Bay is up on Chicago. This is going to be a good football week.

Going for Two: Week Ten and the Ditka Curse

"I'm gonna sink this bitch."

Ever since the Packers sweater didn't do its job and burst into flames as soon as it touched former Bears coach Mike Ditka, the Packers have been playing like shit. Of course, it's possible that everyone has been suffering from Packer Fever and the team just isn't that good. There was that one game against San Diego that was only won by the seat of their pants - or rather, by a single batted football at the last possible second. My father attributes some of the problems to the Defensive Coordinator, who was the Head Coach of the Carolina Panthers back when the Packers defeated them to go to the Super Bowl in 1997. Others are contending that it is a confidence problem, which could be true unless they're saying that it is lack of confidence. Rod-Gers was pretty cocky earlier in the week about Detroit, so maybe this is the loss that kicks them into gear?

Dallas is also feeling this curse after Jerry Rice donned their gear for the same reason. Romo is coming back soon, but Dallas would need to win every game for the rest of the season to hope to make it to post season. The Packers need to do something better on defense, and frankly, sober up and start playing like they want to win before the end of the fourth quarter.

Now, the loss to the Lions in Lambeau for the first time 24 years was certainly traumatic, even if it was pessimistically predicted by many Packer fans, but it wasn't the only upset this weekend. This was the weekend of upsets, in fact, and that's made it an incredible day for NFL Memes. At best, my calculation will be 50% this weekend, which would put Football Locks (my benchmark) at a dismal 29%. If Seattle wins, which is possible, and somehow Houston wins in Cinci- hahhahaha, I can't even finish that, whatever, the worst my calculation can do is 36%, which is also the best that Football Locks can do. Of course, if they do that well, my calculation will be 43%. Regardless, there isn't much you can say to something like that, except...

Back to Football: Week Seventeen Shenanigans

I made at least one stupid pick this week, thinking that Atlanta could defeat the Panthers, but that goes to not paying attention to intricacies of the game, like players. And though I had a suspicion that Kansas City could defeat the Bolts, I went with San Diego anyway and turned out to be wrong.

However, nothing was more controversial this week than an incident in the NFC North showdown between the Packers and Lions. Ndamukong Suh (pronounced Endam-u-kong Soo) knocked Aaron Rodgers (pronounced Eh-ron Ra-jers) to the ground during a play, then took some steps backwards, which happened to land his cleated feets on the sort-of injured calves of Mr. Rodgers.

The NFL suspended Suh for the Wildcard Playoff game against the Cowboys because their interpretation of the evidence is that he intentionally stepped on Rodgers' calf. Suh also has a history of not-so-unintentionally striking or hurting other players, which doesn't help his case.

However, after a few viewings of the incident at a slowed speed, I'm still willing to give the benefit of the doubt. On one hand, if his past offenses were similar - with him not looking at the victim - then maybe he did it on purpose, but I don't have that evidence in front of me. One could argue that Rodger's reaction indicated that he thought it was on purpose, but adrenaline runs high in football and being stepped on with cleats would make anyone mad, regardless of intent.

At normal speed, I don't really think that this incident is a big deal. I hope Suh wins his appeal, so he can help defeat the Cowboys next week. If not, well, I still hope the Lions can win.

Back to Football: Week Eight Sunday Morning

Thursday's game was an easy pick, making me 8 for 8 there. A game in London meant that the first game today started at 8:30 Central, or 6:30 Pacific. Fortunately, the teams playing were from the Eastern and Central time zones, so no one on the West Coast cared?

It was a much more competitive game than I thought it would be, since some player dubbed Megatron on Detroit was not starting against Atlanta. Late in the 4th, it was Atlanta up by 2, but checking the scores just now, I was very, very happy to see DET in bold and the word Final under the score. They won by a single point, and I am 2 for 2 in games played so far.

I'm off to get coffee and breakfast. I just hope Cincinnati and Seattle don't disappoint me again this week.

Sundays are for Football: Week Seventeen

This is the last week of the regular season, but last week, I was on vacation with family, who either did not let me watch football, did not have wireless, or where it would have been awkward to break out a computer while watching the TV. But also, as a result of the vacation, I didn't make my picks before the games started today. But somehow, I managed to not see the scores of the still happening games while looking up who was playing, and made my picks anyway. Now I just need to wait for the early games to end to see how well I did. I already called the Giants/Eagles game, and it isn't even over yet. ::WIN::

--Time Passes--

Superfluous Rant: For the love all that is and ever was, please do not let the Giants into the playoffs. If they get in the playoffs, they will ruin everything, then win the Super Bowl, and that will be boring. I will not sit and watch a Giants Super Bowl, no way, no how. Giants fans can KMA.

So, the roommate and I were watching the Spotify window on my computer, when I realized that we could listen to Spotify and watch the NFL games at the same time, and it is so far, so good. The TV was apparently playing the Eagles/Giants game, but they switched away from that blow out to show the Bears/Lions game, which is actually interesting. For a while, it looked like the Lions might win the game - indeed, they still might, but the Bears now have the ball with less than three minutes to go, and if they score, it will be over for the Lions, and the Bears playoff hopes will still be alive, only to be crushed by the 49ers or Packers someday, wahahahahaha.

--Time Passes, Early Games End--

So, I started watching the 49ers/Cardinals game, but had to turn away because it was entirely too red - seriously. I couldn't even tell the players apart because my eyes were hurting. So I tuned in to the Raiders/Chargers game, and not 15 seconds into the game, the Raiders are down 7-0. Really, San Diego, did you have to rub it in? And apparently, the last time that the Chargers got a TD from the opening kick-off was this exact same game, last year. WOW

--Time Passes--

So, during REM's End of the World song, the local TV station showed clips of the 49ers game, where everyone was cheering, and things were happy. Then, they went over to a bar with Raider fans, watching that game, which was just... not very nice, come on, TV station, we know that they are going to be sad, leave them alone. Anyway, the games are at half time, and none of the scores are at blow out level yet, so I cannot make any predictions on the winners yet. The 49ers, however, should be up by 7 points, if not for two missed field goals.

--Time Passes--

So, Green Bay gave up their first round bye so they could play the Vikings again, but in Lambeau? This doesn't seem like it will end well, but hey, the rest of my late game picks were accurate, so my average for the season is now at 64%. Now, Washington needs to win, and I'll be sort of happy, sort of. At least the Giants were knocked out of contention this year, and so long as New England is held back, the Super Bowl will be highly watchable this year.

In other news, I'm watching the press conferences, but on mute. It just seems mean to have a press conference for the teams that did really bad. I mean, what are they supposed to say? "Yeah, we suck, we'll try to do better next year, sorry." Seriously, someone does have to suck, why make them sit in front of angry fans and answer questions? On the other hand, making up the answers for the San Diego QB during his press conference was pretty fun.

But whatever, the regular season is done for me, see you in the playoffs!