Going for Two: Wild Card Wonders

We were a little late to the first game of the Wild Card weekend, but overheard "106 yards" in reference to the kickoff, and knew that Kansas City was the team that must have ran the kick-off back for a touchdown. We found our section and then began the long descent down to row C and to our seats. It was surreal to me, being so close to something I've mostly seen on TV. Even the games I've been to were high up in Lambeau, and toward a corner. But now, I was right there, and there was JJ Watt, and OMG, ALEX SMITH!

GO TEXANS!!!

There was hope in the first half, and there was excitement. When the screen told us to get loud, we GOT LOUD!! But the murmurs about Hoyer got louder too after turnover after blown drive after turnover and soon enough, I was chanting "We Want Weeden!" along with the loudest of them, all to no avail. Apparently, the coach never even considered taking Hoyer out, and maybe Weeden wasn't the savior that would have helped, but I can't imagine that he would have had a turnover on every. single. promising. drive. No, instead of giving us Weeden, the Texans didn't score any points and lost by 30. There was a disgusting thing that one of the Kansas City players did that had me screaming "EJECT HIM FROM THE GAME" and "#*$& YOU FISHER". However, what I saw as an egregious and unnecessary act - as did many others in the stands - appears to be nothing more than, at worst, a "dirty play" to the rest of the world. And after that, Watt was out of the game, but with a groin injury.

I wish you played for another team, and not Washington.

With 6 minutes left to go, I decided to go to the Kansas City sideline for a closer look at my boyfriend, and a closer look did I get. ::swoon:: The backup QB was in and kneeled down for the final time and we went back up the stairs to board the train and head back to Midtown, one of my calculation picks being right.

We saw parts of the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati game, with sleet, or rain, or snow, and a closer, more exciting game at hand. We did catch the final few minutes of the game, and all Cincinnati had to do was hold Pittsburgh back from field goal range and they would win, but they couldn't do that. A bad hit by a Bengal led to penalty yards for the Steelers, and they won by two points, proving my prediction right for the second game.

Today, we missed kick-off again, since my friend and I were out for breakfast, but we got back in time for the second half, with Minnesota up by 3 to 0. Then the Vikings got two more field goals before Wilson missed the snap. As he scrambled and picked up the ball, Tyler Lockett paid attention and stayed open to receive the Wilson pass and got inside the Vikings 5 yard line! Soon enough, the Seahawks had 7 points on the board, and then they had 10, but Minestrone was making a comeback and was in field goal range.

LACES OUT!!!! LACES OUT! Did you learn NOTHING from Ace Ventura?!?

I saw the set-up, with the kicker kicking into the sunlight, and I had a feeling. Maybe it was my hopes, because I needed Seattle to win and really wanted Minnesota to lose, but I think it was the sunlight. That kick sailed wide left, and another one of my picks was correct. After that, I took my friend to the airport. When I got back, I put the Green Bay game on for a little while, but went back and forth between the game and the NFL Network. Eventually, I had the game on mute with Rifftrax on my computer. The Packers were down by 5 when I got home, then Washington got a touchdown. I hoped they would blow the extra point, and they did, but they were up by 11. After that, however, Green Bay became Green Bay again, and scored 17 unanswered points.  YOU LIKE THAT! WE ALL LIKE THAT! Washington got another touchdown and made the extra point, but it didn't matter, because the Packers responded with 18 more points to make my calculation 100% accurate this week! WOOOOOOOOOO PACKERS! PACKERS WON THE SUPER BOWL WILD CARD GAME!

Going for Two: Wild Card Shoulda Coulda Didn't

It's easy to give Kansas City a pass because their mascot isn't a racial slur and their imagery is significantly more subtle (though still an appropriation) than Washington. I'm also not prone to watching Kansas City or Washington games, so I'm not familiar with their fans' activity, but I suspected that it wasn't good.

Yesterday, I had a unique opportunity to attend the Kansas City at Houston playoff game and had seats in the third row of the "Bull Pen", which was right behind the uprights in the north end zone. And as everyone who reads this blog knows, Alex Smith is my Football Boyfriend, so I made a sign that said "I <3 you Alex Smith" on one side. On the other side, it said, "but not your team Go Texans," with "Change the Name" and "#NotYourMascots" in smaller print.

Well, as my calculation and my benchmarks predicted, Kansas City won the game. Since the still-probably-concussed Hoyer was never taken out of the game, they shut out the Texans, so most Texans fans left the game by the 4th quarter. The few Kansas City fans then moved down closer to the games, and a large contingent of them were down on the KC sideline. With about 6 minutes left, I decided to go down there too so I could again share my feelings with Alex Smith. I held my sign in front of my red Texans shirt, with the Alex Smith side facing forward, and was successfully camouflaged in the 6th row. Yelling "I love you, Alex Smith!" a few times sealed the deal.

This was another unique opportunity, this time to be in one of the most uncomfortable crowds I've ever been in, complete with white people in headdresses and face-paint. As I learned earlier in the game, football crowds often do the "First Down" hand symbol when their team gets one, and that symbol is an awful lot like the "Tomahawk Chop". Down among the crowd of primarily white Kansas City fans, they accompanied that hand gesture with that chant. I grimaced whenever that happened, and hopefully, that grimace made it on to one fan's attempt to get a video of the whole affair.

I contemplated telling people how racist all of this was. I contemplated moving the paper with "Change the Name" and "#NotYourMascots" from the Texans side of my sign to the Alex Smith side (it was taped on). I even contemplated somehow telling one of the headdress guys that he was being incredibly offensive by wearing the formal clothing of another culture as a costume for entertainment value. I contemplated all of these things, but I did nothing, absolutely nothing.

The fact is that I was too scared to make waves - it was scary to have those messages on the Texans side of my sign while among Texans fans. I'm nervous posting about this so much on this blog too, because I abhor arguments. I end up getting too angry, my heart rate goes up, and my ability to make effective arguments plummets. At the end of the day, however, it's still an important issue. I won't stop talking about it until it's no longer an issue, because I know how this affects real people. Next time I'm in this situation, I hope I will have more courage.

Going for Two: Week Seventeen and I Sing

The regular season is in the books, and I feel like focusing on the AFC now, since I might be getting tickets to see my boyfriend play the Texans next week. I certainly won’t be able to watch my Packers go to that stadium of offensively used symbols and feel panic that they might lose for three hours. Regardless, every team’s record is set, and all my numbers are in too.

The benchmarks performed poorly this year, compared to the last two years, at least, and my calculation excelled.

169 correct predictions represents exactly 66% correct, and 158 is 61.7%. My calculation broke even this week, so I've earned $8,400 theoretical dollars on top of the $25,600 I would have had to put up. $8,400 is 33% of $25,600, so I think that means my ROI was 133%, or maybe 33%, and I think that is good. I've been told that a 66% accuracy rating is pretty good too, so I should be a lot happier than I am. Eh, it's late, I should go to bed.

See you in the playoffs!

Going for Two: Week Seventeen Poor Form

It isn't much of a surprise that a former member of an NFL team with a straight-up racial slur for a name to says something racist. But it is a little surprising when that person is a black man saying something about other black men. Perhaps Dexter Manley is spending too much time making rich old white men laugh to realize that the rest of the country doesn't play that way.

I could also see it as something that black people might joke about with other black people because they know they're among people that won't (necessarily) further dehumanize black people because of the comment. In that way, it's similar to the way feminist women will say some of the most misogynist things in a facetious way to joke with each other.

Going for Two: Week Sixteen Conflicts

I just realized that this year's Super Bowl could be unwatchable for me, but the odds of Washington making it into the Divisional round are pretty slim. I will watch if my boyfriend's team goes back to San Francisco in the Super Bowl. I will watch that and savor every delicious moment of 49ers shame! That isn't too far fetched. If Denver loses tonight and heads to the number 6 seed, my calculation has Kansas City in the Conference championship.

Meanwhile, I'm watching the most anticipated game of the last couple months - ever since both teams were still undefeated - Bengals at Broncos, and I'm so conflicted. My calculation needs a Denver win to break even this week. On the other hand, I want Cincinnati to win and I think they are better than Denver, at this point at least. Cinci is my #2 team, of course, and their win tonight also ensures that Houston, and not Indianapolis, makes it to the playoffs.

The prettiest QB of them all.

But that's not the end of the conflict. Don't tell Alex, but I have a little bit of a crush on this Osweiler kid. I had a feeling that he could be the one to lead the Broncos to defeat the Patriots, and it was ordained by the Football Gods. But with a third loss on the horizon, Brock might get knocked out in favor of a healthier Peyton Manning. I find that utterly unfair, however. It's not his fault that the receivers can't run fast enough and can't manage to catch the super fastballs he throws. Okay, maybe it is, sort of, but I really hope they don't give up on Brock.

9 and a half left in the game, Cinci is down by 3 after another great run by C.J. Anderson. That touchdown run was made just as the TV commentators said that they weren't seeing much from C.J. tonight. Unless this is a tie, there is no outcome that won't satisfy and disappoint me tonight. 

Going for Two: Week Thirteen Lackluster Performances

Houston, Minnesota, Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England, and my calculations were all poor performers this week. At best, most of my calculations, including the Mid-Season, will get 63% while Points and my Gut picks get 75%, and actually, that's not very bad. However, the NFL Power Ranking benchmark is at 69% and the Football Locks benchmark is looking at a stunning 88%, which is the highest one-week percentage of any predictions I'm tracking.

No one predicted Chicago or New England's losses, with the exception of my Ideal picks, but Football Locks knew more about Tennessee, while they and my Gut were right about Buffalo and Seattle. Interesting, and frankly, surprising that the Patriots followed suit with the other undefeated teams starting with the Packers of being unable to lose just one game and bounce back. That thing I said about losses being absolutely detrimental certainly rang true for the Packers, Denver, Cincinnati, and now New England. The Panthers better hope that their first loss doesn't happen in Week 17.

As for my picks, I waffled earlier today about the Sunday Night Game, but came back to predicting a Steelers win. The Packers might be able to come back from a 20 point deficit, but the Colts won't be overcoming their 25 point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter. I'm unlikely to watch tomorrow's game even though I've heard a lot about this Cousins guy and wouldn't mind seeing Dallas lose. I just can't stomach that logo or tolerate hearing that racial slur for three or more hours. I'm glad to hear fewer mentions of the mascot on TV, and no one seems to be touting this upcoming game as "Cowboys and Indians", thank goodness. Still, it's time to change the name.

Going for Two: Optimized Calculation

After my first post, I began working with my calculation more, then put the numbers into the charts for each week to see how the season might shake out. The results made for a very even distribution of records, with a couple teams having perfect seasons and just as many not getting a win at all. The top two teams, my prospective Super Bowl teams, were the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC and the Miami Dolphins in the AFC.

I mentioned this to two of the people that did my Peer Reviews, and one said, "I will give you $100 if Miami gets to the Super Bowl," but had more optimism about the Cardinals. This prompted me to make more changes. I changed up the numbers that went into the charts for each week by rounding the value to the nearest whole number and added the points from my ranking to the weekly chart through Week 8, but reducing the point value by 10% each week. This rounding and prolonging the effect of those initial points helped by making the final records of each team fall into a more normal distribution. I also hard coded a win for New England to get them from 8&8 to 11&5, because yeah. I may hate the Patriots, but I'm not stupid.

The other major change was to add more data, including Depth Chart Rankings and the ranks for Offenses, Defenses, and Special Teams. This change took considerably more time, both from data entry, figuring out how to weight the different values, and then combining the information into a single number that still fit my 16-point scale. Oh, and I pulled all of that into its own spreadsheet, the apparently simplicity of which masking all of the hours that were poured into it.

This moved the team ranks around, but did not change the Bottom 5 teams. WAS, and JAX made the last of the 20's, and TEN, OAK, and TB received 30, 31, and 32, respectively. New England, Green Bay, and Seattle bounced around a little, but ended up in the top 3. Most of the other top ranked teams from my simpler calculation remained up at the top, but Arizona was the biggest loser, going from number 8 to 16.

Given all the work that I did on my spreadsheet, I'm not about to work on describing it any more, or copy the results into this post. I will say that, after all of that work, Miami still makes it to the Super Bowl.

Playoffs, Yeah: Wild Card, Day 2

So, I don't really care about the games today, save for proving the accuracy of my picks. The Packers already won their game, and the Bengals lost, and today are the battles of teams I either didn't care about, or didn't like. The battle of the don't care is over, and I'm pleased that the Ravens won, though I did pick the Colts. Now, the don't likes are playing. I picked the Seahawks, for obvious reasons (to anyone who knows me), but I really kind of hope they just go on to lose to the Falcons next week.

Stupid Observation: The Seahawks are from the state of Washington, and the other team is from the city of Washington.

--Time Passes--

So, Washington broke the trend of the Wild Card games, and scored first with a touchdown, instead of a field goal. They are generally dominating this game, but whatever, in the battle of the don't likes, I hope either one goes down against the Falcons next week.