READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 1 and Season Update

Well, I guess I should have known it was too good to be true - that I didn't have the manually update information for certain weeks in order to get an accurate result for my calculation, but at least Chicago doesn't win the Super Bowl anymore.

UPDATE 9/9/2018

Every year is a relearning experience with my spreadsheet to try to remember all of the little tricks I've hidden within the cells. After a massive simplification effort that removed a number of experimental calculations and then data entry for the early games of Week 1, I discovered that the Master sheet used an area where the schedule was hand-coded to create the main calculation. (sigh) So I automated it to update it for this year and had to re-update those certain weeks mentioned above. This gave me a new-but-also-old Super Bowl prediction.

Conference									Conference
N3	MIN								JAX	A3
			NFC		Super Bowl		AFC
		N3	MIN		MIN		PIT	A1
				Champions
N1	PHI								PIT	A1
					Super Bowl
		N1	PHI		JAX		JAX	A3
					^Alternate^

The alternate is included because there is a disagreement between the two columns that I thought used the same calculation. One variation is in an AFC divisional playoff and puts either New England or Jacksonville into the Conference Championship. Regardless, however, Pittsburgh goes to the Super Bowl. The other is in the NFC Championship. If we do get the Battle of Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh would win.

Instead, my boy Cam Newton and his Panthers get their dream.

Conference									Conference
N4	CAR								TEN	A5
			NFC		Super Bowl		AFC
		N4	CAR		CAR		TEN	A5
				Champions
N3	MIN								JAX	A3

Sorry, Cam, you know you're still my angel. Also, I like what you're doing with your hair.

The Running Game: Week One Football's Back!

Woohoo! Football! And real football this time! Okay, okay, first I had to take over the local Pokemon gym (and two of my monsters were still in there earlier today), then I went home and turned on my TV, but something was wrong. I had to call my cable company for them to "rehit" my device. After several cable box rehits, getting escalated to Level 3 support, and about 100 minutes, I still could not watch the game. Instead, I was relegated to watching the progress on NFL.com.

At first, we all know that it was promising. Our golden boy got closer to having the highest number of career running touchdowns as a QB - and he's only 27 - but the end was dicey and they were down by 4. Things looked good until they had to settle for a field goal, but then they got the ball back quickly. The clock lurched down, and my heart pounded. Were they in field goal range? All it takes is one good throw - Aaron Rodgers could do it - please don't let us down, Cam! But then it happened. The word Final appeared in the middle, with Denver still ahead by 1 point. How? Wha? Wait a second...

I don't care what anybody says, I still love you.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Okay, okay, I gotta get over this. It's gonna be okay - they can only go up from here, right? Or maybe they can just go down, over and over again, loss after loss and - no, stop it. STOP IT.

In other news, after putting in many, many stats, then dialing back for fear of "overcooking" my calculation, I have the final numbers and am ready to publish the Post Season Predictions.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

GB

Divisional

Divisional

CIN

A6

N6

GB

Conference

Conference

DEN

A5

N3

NYG

N2

MIN

PIT

A2

NE

A3

N1

ARI

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

OAK

A1

N1

ARI

ARI

OAK

A1

N2

MIN

Champions

PIT

A2

N5

SEA

N1

ARI

OAK

A1

DEN

A5

N4

CAR

NE

A3

N4

CAR

JAX

A4

Sadly, the outcome of the first game does change this up just a little. Carolina doesn't beat Seattle in the Wild Card round, but Minnesota has its revenge (LACES OUT!) until Phoenix. To be honest, I don't think this will actually happen - especially Jacksonville representing the AFC South - but whatever, there it is, with the right colors this time.

Going for Two: SUPERBOWL SUNDAY

Watching the NFL Network earlier today, I really enjoyed the adult conversation that the panel of black and white men had about the bias against Cam. They wondered if it was racial, but didn't go so far as to call fans racist, which is good form. They did explain how it was cultural, and that a lot of people don't understand the culture that he comes from. They also referenced a commentator from years past that would reference rap songs, and would be called out for making "obscure" references, but when the other guy made a Seinfeld reference and the first guy never heard of it, it wasn't noted. It seems that the NFL realized that they were reaching two different markets, and opted to not alienate one market just to placate the dominant one.

Kick-off: Lady Gaga's National Anthem was amazing. There is an over/under on Peyton Manning saying Omaha tonight - 15 is the number. I believe that the Panthers won the toss and elected to kick. End of Q1: Denver saved their game by getting points on the board on their first possession. The pressure, and playing away fro home must be getting to Cam. He's a lot more of a drop-back, pocket quarterback in this game, and he had a ball stripped from him that the Broncos retrieved in the end zone to out them up by 10. Denver brought their A game, and the Panthers are just struggling. Mid Q2: There has been a lot of football in the last 23 minutes, and while Carolina got points on the board, they're still struggling. Carolina looked like it could have gone ahead at one point after Manning was intercepted, but Denver's defense held. They had a chance to get points at the end of the half, but again, the defense stopped them.

Mid 4th: The game has gotten less interesting, but suddenly, it got more interesting with a Cam Newton fumble and Denver recovered the ball at the 5 yard line. The room agrees that Denver's constant running is signature Kubiak. He likes to get shitty leads, and then run the ball all the time, it seems. But that hasn't come to pass and the Broncos finally got an offensive touchdown to go ahead by 12, then 14, with the two-point conversion.

Going for Two: Conference Championship Blues

I felt it when New England didn't score on their first drive. I'd wondered why they elected to receive when they won the coin toss. The teevee always told me that Belichick liked to have the last possession of the first half and the first of the second. But the teevee said today that this decision secured "one more possession" for New England.

They should have gone with their normal procedure. Denver scored first, and New England kept punting, until that first touchdown. I figured that was the start of their eventual win, but then Mr. Perfect missed, and Denver was still leading. Scores kept happening, low scores, but New England was never in the lead. They should have gone for field goals on 4th down at least twice (or maybe just once, I forget) in the the 4th quarter. But they didn't. They didn't get the 2-point conversion, they didn't get the onside kick, and they didn't get the AFC Championship. That loss cost me one thousand theoretical dollars. Of course, as with every New England loss, it was worth it. And this one was so worth it. Oh, and this video is a thing of beauty.

Arizona was down 10 to nothing at the end of the first quarter, but Carolina going up early was to be expected. Arizona made a better showing than the Seahawks did, at least in the first half, but then fell apart as Carolina soared. The Panthers lulled us into a false security by not scoring in the second half last week. Or maybe it wasn't Arizona's year. Maybe that will be next year, for the first time in 70 years. Better than the Cubs, I guess.

So my Super Bowl prediction was completely wrong, but the one team that everyone thought was a lock lost, so it could be worse. It means that the 4th worst possible outcome of these Playoffs was prevented. Fourth or fifth, or something, whatever, but the other worst outcomes had already been prevented. The last remaining worst outcomes are now out since the Patriots aren't going to Super Bowl 50.

I would have liked to see an Arizona and Denver Super Bowl, and I would like to see Peyton Manning go out on top, but it won't happen. Don't get me wrong, I don't particularly care for Manning, but as I told a friend earlier today, anyone that unfortunate looking has my sympathy, at least. Denver may have the best defense, but these last two weeks have convinced me. Carolina is going to kick their ass.

Going for Two: Conference Championship Interim Post

I wanted to post earlier this week, but even now, I am typing one-handed while my my other hand dangles a toy for my beloved Bruno. This cat, I swear. I waved a toy or flashed the laser toy for almost the entire Packer game last weekend and he would STILL cry when I stopped doing anything. And I could handle the crying (or meowing) if I wasn't worried about what always happened after the meowing, which was knocking things over. My poor baby is bored, I know, but he has a million toys, seriously. Anyway, I have found the NFL Power Rankings for this week, and the NFL is still in love with Carolina. After that opening half, I'm less inclined to think they are wrong. I still think Arizona will win, but that isn't stopping me from hedging my picks. I'm putting Carolina as my Gut pick, but I'm not doing the same for Denver. It's possible that Denver could win, and FSM knows that I want them to, I just don't think they will. New England is going to the Super Bowl, there isn't really much we can do about it other than enjoy a Disappointed Brady Google Image Search.

He used to entertain himself.

Anyway, Bruno just knocked over the box of markers, and while he's laid down for the moment, he's looking at me - oh, he's up now. What I mean is that I can't post my Power Ranks yet. I need to stop typing because my 14-pound fur baby needs me. 

Going for Two: Divisional Round Review

With my first two picks being accurate this weekend, I was going to hold off on blogging lest it jinx me, but with Seattle down 31 to nothing at the half, I've got nothing to lose. Saturday was very bittersweet, since I predicted New England and Arizona, and they both won, but I would have been perfectly happy with them losing. With the AFC game, it was more about New England losing and a partial desire to see my boyfriend succeed. As for the other game, a Packer win would have wreaked havoc with my predictions, but it would have had me jumping for joy. As it was, I'm happy for the Cardinals, cuz it's their year.

The best part of last night's game had to be trash talking in the comments section of my favorite blogger's Facebook threads. Before the Week 16 game, he had asked if the Packers and their fans had "ever considered sucking it", though it appears that he has removed that post. Regardless, when he warned readers that he was about to go all football for a few hours, I opted to respond in kind.

Miracles can only win games so often.

Ed confessed his fear of A-A-Ron, expressed surprise at all the 3rd down conversions from the Packers, whined about missed calls, whined about his team,  gave up, bitched about Cris Collinsworth, but mostly about missed calls, dropped a few posts that have since been removed, and finally, expressed his appreciation for Wisconsin. He lost a few dozen followers with that night, but what a night it was. In the end, the better team won. I kind of wished that Larry Fitzgerald had finished his spectacular run in the end zone, but at least he got the TD in the end.

When Ed gave up, I saw a comment further down-thread that made an egregious false comparison. I made a short reply last night, then followed up this morning. This comment was researched and took about an hour to construct. The response I got was, simply, Touché, which not enough people use. Below is the comment, in its entirety, with sources linked.

In terms of their respective rank in their conferences, yes. KC and GB had impressive victories over the champions of the two garbage divisions. They both went to the home stadium of the number 2 seed and were projected to lose. They both scored 20 points, nearly came back to win, and lost by a touchdown. They both have very attractive quarterbacks (though while I <3 Alex Smith, in terms of skill, he is no A-A-Ron), but that is where the similarities, for the most part, end. There might be similarities between the Patriots and the Cardinals, but they're not important. The Patriots won their 4th Super Bowl last year (Super Bowl XLIX, or ex-lix, as I like to call it) and have been to 4 others. In the last 14 Super Bowls, half of them have included the New England Patriots, and they're probably going to Super Bowl 50. In that same time, the Cardinals have made the playoffs four times, including their only Super Bowl appearance, which they lost in 2008. They have not won an NFL Championship since they were the Chicago Cardinals in 1947. The other difference is that New England is getting a little stale this year, while Arizona is on fire. I'm predicting that they will get the Lombardi trophy in Super Bowl 50, and while this is my first year doing serious NFL predictions, I'm 6 for 6 in the playoffs and 68% on the regular season (which I'm told is good).

For the record, Ed was not actually done.

Kansas City started the season in a massive hole, while Green Bay was playing like a championship team. The former team went on to win 11 straight games, while the Packers lost to the Lions, Bears, and Vikings *at home.* Kansas City won one Super Bowl, in 1969, which was the last of the two that they have been to. In the last 15 years (14 Super Bowls), they have been to the playoffs 5 times, and have only gotten to the Divisional Round twice. The Packers, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl wins in 5 appearances, have made the postseason 12 times since the 2001 season, have been in 8 Divisional Round games, and three Conference Championship games. It is much more like KC=ARI and NE=GB. I could write you at least one more paragraph about how that last comparison doesn't hold up, but I've had my fun this morning for this thread.

And in the time it took me to write this post (and exercise, shower, and make plans with friends), Seattle came back to lose, like the other two losers this week, by a single touchdown. My record for the playoffs is now 6 & 1, and with only 4 more games left to go, I'm guaranteed to be over 500.