The Running Game: Earlier Projections

The 2015 season, Free Agency, and Draft have all completed, and that means that about half of my initial calculation for predicting the winners and losers of Week 1 is ready. By projecting the other half of the points, filling in the schedules, and adding some very low and impossible point values to create potentially realistic Mid-Season calculation results, I can make an early prediction for the 2016 playoffs.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

NYG

Divisional

Divisional

PIT

A6

N4

PHI

Conference

Conference

KC

A5

N3

MIN

N3

MIN

CIN

A2

NE

A3

N1

CAR

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

OAK

A1

N1

CAR

OAK

OAK

A1

N2

ARI

Champions

CIN

A2

N5

SEA

N1

CAR

OAK

A1

KC

A5

N3

MIN

NE

A3

N4

PHI

JAX

A4

One thing I haven't done is update the rank-based color scheme for each team, so the current colors are based on the relative rank of the team at the beginning of the 2015 season. The colors range from dark red for "very bad" through orange, yellow, and light green to dark green for "very good".

Now, my numbers don't lie. They may not know what they're talking about, but they don't knowingly lie. So the fact that FootballLocks has Oakland at 40 to 1 odds of winning Super Bowl LI shouldn't stop you from putting all your money on the Raiders to go all the way. What should stop you from doing that is that this is the result from less than half of my entire calculation and we're a full 3 months away from the start of the Regular Season. I mean, I wish them the best, but if Oakland gets to the big game, I will eat my hat. Well, first I will get a hat, and then I will eat it.

The Running Game: Free Agency Grades and Power Ranks

The Free Agency Grades and Power Rankings are in, so two of five columns for the Offseason portion of my Season Open Points spreadsheet have been filled in. I've got to wait until late April to finish up Free Agency, then early May for the Draft. Fortunately, for me, I have more than enough to distract me during the month of April, which will include my first ever trip to Asia.

There have been some interesting changes so far, including Demarco Murray heading to, of all places, Tennessee. Cousins and Bradford are staying put, and rumor has it that, if the 49ers can't keep him, Kaepernick could head to Denver. The reason for that is the biggest news of all: the Texans poached former Denver backup and NFL Quarterback Beauty Pageant 2015 First Runner Up Brock Osweiler!

The Broncos reportedly offered him up to $16 million per season for a new contract, but Houston edged them out with a $72 million, four year deal. Not everyone is excited about this move, with the most amusing assessment being, "The Houston Texans are run like someone wanted to dare themselves to win with a poorly constructed roster in Madden just for the hell of it." The commentariat at NFL Memes were also downers, noting that he could be overrated and his 6'7" frame is going to slow down fast. Whatever, though, I don't care, and I don't agree. The NFL's dreamiest QB will be playing in Houston, just a train ride and some requests to use friends' and colleagues' season tickets away from yours truly.

The Running Game: Trading Time

The Ides of March brings the 8-hours when NFL teams can submit things. Sooner or later, I can start adding Free Agency rankings to my spreadsheet.

"March 15: The 2016 league year and free agency period begin at 4 p.m. ET.

"The first day of the 2016 League Year will end at 11:59:59 p.m. ET, on March 15. Clubs will receive a personnel notice that will include all transactions submitted to the league office during the period between 4 p.m. ET and 11:59:59 p.m. ET on March 15.

"Trading period for 2016 begins at 4 p.m. ET, after expiration of all 2015 contracts."

The Running Game: Free Agency Negotiation Time

Thanks to an article on nj.com, I am fully aware of the NFL Offseason schedule.

"March 7: Beginning at 12 noon, New York time, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with the certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents upon the expiration of their 2015 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15. However, a contract cannot be executed with a new club until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15."