The Running Game: Week Six Disappointments and Curses

Coming off a week where the AFC and NFC Champions were defeated by Divisional rivals that are rarely, if ever, contenders, I can't finish this sentence in a satisfactory way. Favre returned to Lambeau again, and the Packers lost in Lambeau again, but that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot are no Chicago Bears. They were wearing those godawful throw-back uniforms ::vomit::. Maybe Favre's curse had an effect on Prescott. No, really, Favre, you're great, we love you, but please, stay home.

I'm sitting here, watching Osweiler break my heart, and break everyone's heart in Houston. Well, not right now because the Texans' defense is on the field. I liked the table I shared last week, so I made the same one for this season.

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
DEN at SD	DEN	DEN	San Diego isn't necessarily as bad as their record says, but still, DEN	SD
SF at BUF	BUF	BUF	Kaepernick is back, but who knows how good he is. BUF	BUF
PHI at WAS	WAS	PHI	Calculation says WAS, but the Benchmarks and my gut say PHI	WAS
CLE at TEN	TEN	TEN	This may be the best shot for a Browns win, but Murray & Mariota TEN	TEN
BAL at NYG	NYG	Split	I haven't yet given up on them BAL	NYG
CAR at NO	CAR	CAR	Things are not going well this year for my boy, NO	NO
JAX at CHI	JAX	Split	This is a tough one, but in the end, I'm sticking with JAX	JAX
LA at DET	LA	Split	Another one I can't explain, just a feeling about DET	DET
PIT at MIA	PIT	PIT	I honestly don't see Miami winning this game, barring the worst for PIT	MIA
CIN at NE	NE	NE	I really, really want the Bengals to win, but NE	NE
KC at OAK	OAK	OAK	I see some upset potential here KC	KC
ATL at SEA	SEA	SEA	We all know about Seattle, but I got a feeling ATL	SEA
DAL at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!! But oh man, that Prescott, Idk, eff it, GO PACK GO!!!!	DAL
IND at HOU	HOU	HOU	This is another tough one, and it may be wishful thinking, HOU	...
NYJ at ARI	ARI	ARI	Grizzly Adams has been slipping, and Stanton & Fitzgerald ARI	...

The fonts look messed up, and I can't stand to hear the banter about overpaying Osweiler right now. 2:28 to go, and Luck goes down. Hope springs eternal.

The Running Game: Week Two GO FOR THE FIELD GOAL

OMG, WHY DIDN'T THEY GO FOR THE FIELD GOAL?

I repeat,

WHY DIDN'T THEY GO FOR THE FIELD GOAL?

Why?!? WHY????

WHY?

We would have had a tied game right now.

Going for Two: Week Seventeen Preview and Picks

There is no Thursday Night, Saturday Night, or Monday Night Football this week and it's messing with me. Everything for Week Seventeen is crammed into Sunday, with ten games starting at noon, five at 3:25, and a single prime time game featuring the Vikings and my Packers to decide the winner of the NFC North. It's in Lambeau, but that doesn't mean what it used to - not with Detroit and Chicago having won there this year. But it's been a good week, and it's a new year, so hope springs eternal.

Here are my picks for Week 17:

	Games			Calculated Winner	Benchmark Winner	Gut Picks
N O O N G A M E S	NO	at	ATL	ATL (63%)	ATL (61%)	ATL
	NYJ	at	BUF	NYJ (53%)	NYJ (61%)	NYJ
	DET	at	CHI	CHI (43%)	DET (61%)	DET
	BAL	at	CIN	CIN (63%)	CIN (61%)	CIN
	PIT	at	CLE	PIT (63%)	PIT (61%)	PIT
	WAS	at	DAL	WAS (53%)	DAL (31%)	WAS
	JAX	at	HOU	HOU (63%)	HOU (61%)	HOU
	TEN	at	IND	IND (63%)	IND (61%)	IND
	NE	at	MIA	NE (63%)	NE (61%)	NE
	PHI	at	NYG	NYG (32%)	NYG (61%)	NYG
L A T E	SEA	at	ARI	ARI (63%)	ARI (61%)	ARI
	TB	at	CAR	CAR (63%)	CAR (61%)	CAR
	SD	at	DEN	DEN (63%)	DEN (61%)	DEN
	OAK	at	KC	KC (63%)	KC (61%)	KC
	STL	at	SF	STL (53%)	STL (61%)	STL
PT	MIN	at	GB	GB (63%)	GB (61%)	GB

The percentages next to the calculated and benchmark winners represent the average accuracy for that metric and are an attempt to identify the possibility that this will be right. For example, the Benchmark Winners combines two metrics and together, they are 61% accurate. If they both pick that team, the percent is 61%. If only one metric picks that team, then the percent is lower to reflect that. The Calculated Winners combine 6 different metrics with an overall average accuracy of 63%  and range from 59% to 67% accurate.

My Gut picks, which have a 63% accuracy rating this year, are sometimes adjusted based on disagreement between the calculations and/or benchmark, as well as things I know. In this case, I'm going with the calculation with the 67% accuracy rating except for the Detroit at Chicago game - Detroit is just a better team than Chicago. I almost switched up the Philly at NY Giants game, but am sticking with the Giants because they will have Odell Beckham back. There is something to be said for the firing of Chip Kelly, but that could really go either way.

Going for Two: Week Thirteen Lackluster Performances

Houston, Minnesota, Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England, and my calculations were all poor performers this week. At best, most of my calculations, including the Mid-Season, will get 63% while Points and my Gut picks get 75%, and actually, that's not very bad. However, the NFL Power Ranking benchmark is at 69% and the Football Locks benchmark is looking at a stunning 88%, which is the highest one-week percentage of any predictions I'm tracking.

No one predicted Chicago or New England's losses, with the exception of my Ideal picks, but Football Locks knew more about Tennessee, while they and my Gut were right about Buffalo and Seattle. Interesting, and frankly, surprising that the Patriots followed suit with the other undefeated teams starting with the Packers of being unable to lose just one game and bounce back. That thing I said about losses being absolutely detrimental certainly rang true for the Packers, Denver, Cincinnati, and now New England. The Panthers better hope that their first loss doesn't happen in Week 17.

As for my picks, I waffled earlier today about the Sunday Night Game, but came back to predicting a Steelers win. The Packers might be able to come back from a 20 point deficit, but the Colts won't be overcoming their 25 point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter. I'm unlikely to watch tomorrow's game even though I've heard a lot about this Cousins guy and wouldn't mind seeing Dallas lose. I just can't stomach that logo or tolerate hearing that racial slur for three or more hours. I'm glad to hear fewer mentions of the mascot on TV, and no one seems to be touting this upcoming game as "Cowboys and Indians", thank goodness. Still, it's time to change the name.