Showing posts with label Super Bowl Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl Predictions. Show all posts

Saturday, September 8, 2018

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 1 and Season Update

Well, I guess I should have known it was too good to be true - that I didn't have the manually update information for certain weeks in order to get an accurate result for my calculation, but at least Chicago doesn't win the Super Bowl anymore.

UPDATE 9/9/2018

Every year is a relearning experience with my spreadsheet to try to remember all of the little tricks I've hidden within the cells. After a massive simplification effort that removed a number of experimental calculations and then data entry for the early games of Week 1, I discovered that the Master sheet used an area where the schedule was hand-coded to create the main calculation. (sigh) So I automated it to update it for this year and had to re-update those certain weeks mentioned above. This gave me a new-but-also-old Super Bowl prediction.
ConferenceConference
N3MINJAXA3
NFCSuper BowlAFC
N3MINMINPITA1
Champions
N1PHIPITA1
Super Bowl
N1PHIJAXJAXA3
^Alternate^
The alternate is included because there is a disagreement between the two columns that I thought used the same calculation. One variation is in an AFC divisional playoff and puts either New England or Jacksonville into the Conference Championship. Regardless, however, Pittsburgh goes to the Super Bowl. The other is in the NFC Championship. If we do get the Battle of Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh would win.

Instead, my boy Cam Newton and his Panthers get their dream.
ConferenceConference
N4CARTENA5
NFCSuper BowlAFC
N4CARCARTENA5
Champions
N3MINJAXA3

Sorry, Cam, you know you're still my angel. Also, I like what you're doing with your hair.

Thursday, September 6, 2018

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 1 Watch out for Chicago oh gawd no

There was a moment when I didn't have all the stats in when we had Bizzaro World Super Bowl and Chicago defeated the Jets.

...

Just, no. Sorry about hurting your brain there.

So I put in more stats and Super Bowl 53 was Minnesota defeating Pittsburgh, which is a lot more believable. But still, I saw some good things for Chicago. I had one more stat: The Week 1 NFL Power Rankings. Then Chicago signed Mack and moved up 8 spots to number 15. That gave them the edge to defeat Minnesota twice and earn the Division Championship. And even at the 3rd seed, they move through the brackets until...

Better dust off that ol' Super Bowl Shuffle
Just remember...

THE BEARS STILL SUCK!
(Go Pack Go)

Monday, January 22, 2018

Oh Yeah, Football: Superb Owl

Early predictions of Jacksonville's wild success this year proved true but the freight train that is New England is back in the Super Bowl this year anyway. I've done a lot of analysis since my last post and my playoff predictions are 7 for 10 and the benchmarks are 5 and 6 for 10.

On one hand, New England is the easy favorite and a blow-out is possible. On the other, it looks like Philly thrives on being an underdog. With my calculation, it turns out that Philly is just barely an underdog, with 9.8 points to New England's 10. Basically, the teams have an equal score and we can consider New England the favorite as if they were the home team.

PHINE
Upset RatesAccuracy Rates
Specific88% (7 of 8)100% (1 of 1)
Overall60%86%


New England simply has not faced many opponents at home that were evenly matched. There are 5 more games at home where they had 1 point over the underdog and they won all those games. 

This may look like a shoe-in for New England, but there is a lot to be said in Philadelphia's upset rates. They blew out Minestrone with a 53% Upset Rate to Minnesota's 71% accuracy rate. We can only $%#&ing hope.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Ten Tears of Joy

Monday morning, or just after noon, I forget, I get a chat message at work. It's my Personal Trainer, asking how my projections changed based on Dallas not losing to Kansas City. It was yes and no because Jacksonville was still projected to win the Super Bowl, but now they were going to defeat Dallas. Then there was news that Elliot's suspension was canceled for the whole season and I really didn't realize what I had unleashed a few weeks ago. He even accused me of being a Cowboys fan on Tuesday, which was totally uncalled for. At least one person told me that I should have smacked him for that. Personally, I think the only proper reaction to that is a straight-on projectile vomit to the face.


In any case, now we are here in Week Ten and my prediction for Thursday was correct, but somehow it created a truly horrifying result in the predictions.

At that point, even a loss to the Falcons didn't keep Dallas out of the Super Bowl, though it was of the simple, projected kind.


But then, the Football Gods spoke. Perhaps it was Reggie White that looked favorably upon our world, reinstated Zeke's suspension and bequeathed upon us a Green Bay Packer WIN WITHOUT AARON RODGERS?!?!?!?! OMG, PACKERS WIN!


GREEN BAY PACKERS WIN WITHOUT AARON RODGERS!

Honeycomb even managed to throw a touchdown pass! OMG OMG OMG I now want to cry again, but in a good way! Sure, we may only have one or two more wins on the season, but who cares? Certainly not me. We beat the Bears, we beat the Cowboys, everything's okay.

Okay, so wait, what? Where was I? Okay. So, other calculation predictions also came out accurately except the Jets beating Tampa Bay, but I figured that one would be wrong and it was time for the late games. I went back and forth between Dallas at Atlanta and Houston in LA and then Forensic Files when both were on commercial. It was at this point that my cable started being weird, so I tried to reset it, which did not work. I checked all of the cable connections, including out of the wall, into and out of the splicer, into and out of the cable box, and into the TV and they were good.

Then I reset it again, it didn't work, then I called the cable company. The outage in my area would be fixed by 8:45pm. So I went for a walk. I decided to hit up the gas station closest to me for a Topo Chico and noticed that, hey, the cable company was out there, actually working on the problem.

But I had to walk, walk walk walk. My friend kept me up to date on the game. Prescott kept getting sacked and the Falcons got touchdowns! YES!

It was at HCC that I learned the final result and saw the cable truck driving away, which I assumed meant that the problem was fixed. I headed back over to the block and got some dinner from Spicy Girl. Now here I am, watching the completely predictable result of New England at Denver. After plugging all the numbers in, Dallas loses in the Wild Card round, the Divisi-, okay, Conference? Oh sweet Jesus no, the result is the same.

Even the Football Gods can't help us now.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Eight Call It Caught Up

After a fantastic Friday and sh*tty Saturday, I had a good Sunday, starting on a walk around 9:30am. Unlike yesterday, I went Pokewalking east, down Truxillo to La Branch. I circled up to Baldwin Park, Dolce Delights, then the Museum District before finally hitting up Natacheese and ordered the special, to go.

From text message updates from my friend E, it sounded like my calculated picks were doing quite well, with Atlanta winning, New England holding on, and Philly routing the 49ers. Finally, around 4pm and with over 14,500 steps, I got home and settled in to sit until bedtime.

"An important job today is trying to keep those balls dry."

My calculation has done more than quite well, with 100% accuracy today. One hundred percent, 11 for 11. I was wrong about Thursday night and there is one more game, so the worst I can do now is 85%. But this also means that my weird Super Bowl prediction remains in place. On one hand, I like that it doesn't just put the two first seeds in the big game. On the other hand, seriously?


Some of the teams end up with the same records, so the seeding is a little flexible, but it doesn't seem to matter. Jacksonville always defeats the Rams in SBLII. Always, always ALWAYS.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Uh, Week One Redo?

If it's not one thing, it's another. The rounding on my calculation wasn't working right so I have a slightly different Super Bowl prediction.


Wild CardWild Card
N6SEADivisionalDivisionalKCA6
N3CARConferenceConferenceNEA3
N3CARN1DALOAKA1NEA3
N1DALNFCSuper BowlAFCOAKA1
N4ARIOAKOAKA1
N2MINChampionsPITA2
N5NYGN4ARIPITA2INDA5
N4ARIINDA5
N4ARIHOUA4

Sorry to have missed Weeks Four and Five. I certainly have plenty to say, but life is much busier these days. In other news, I went to the dentist last weekend for the first time in [longer than recommended] and I had NO CAVITIES! WOOOOOOOOOO!