[2019 Season Theme]: Week 0 Predictions

Looking into my crystal ball, I see good things for Minnesota (but with predictable playoff results) and Jacksonville but New England should still dominate the AFC. New Orleans should be able to seek their revenge with Philly and Carolina making themselves known again.

Once again, Green Bay will miss the playoffs but will do better than the Bears. Elway will not be able to give Flacco another Super Bowl ring this year (far from it) and Cleveland will not perform as hoped.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 17 Predictions

Ahead of time, for once. Most predictions are easy this week. I'm reserving judgement for some games until I can do analysis on Saturday.

Sunday Early Games
	MIA	at	BUF		This is a tricky one because Miami sort of appears to be the better team. Neither has playoff hopes though and it's in Buffalo. I'm sticking with the benchmarks and picking the Bills.
	DET	at	GB		PACKERS!!!!!
	JAX	at	HOU		Houston's playoff place isn't set in stone and a win coupled with a Patriot loss would give them a first round bye. The benchmarks and I agree that they'll be playing to win.
	NYJ	at	NE		Everyone agrees that New England has this one.
	CAR	at	NO		New Orleans has everything wrapped up but they aren't giving anything away.
	DAL	at	NYG		Jerry Jones has asserted that no one is resting for this game, even though a loss wouldn't mean anything. I think they'd be stupid to put their starters at risk and the better benchmark has the Giants by 6. This will be a game day decision.
	ATL	at	TB		Tampa Bay does better at home than Atlanta does on the road but everyone else says Atlanta will win.
Sunday Late Games
	CLE	at	BAL		Everyone agrees on Baltimore
	OAK	at	KC		Everyone agrees on Kansas City
	CHI	at	MIN		Chicago has no real incentive to win with the NFC North Championship wrapped up but Minnesota is in a win-or-go-home situation. The Benchmarks are split, with the better having the Vikings. I need to do more analysis for a final decision.
	CIN	at	PIT		Everyone agrees on Pittsburgh
	PHI	at	WAS		Everyone agrees on Philly
	SF	at	LA		Everyone agrees on the Rams
	SD	at	DEN		Everyone agrees on the Chargers
	ARI	at	SEA		Everyone agrees on Seattle
The day's most interesting game on Sunday Night
	IND	at	TEN		Here it is, the game of the week, the win-or-go-home game. It's too bad Romo won't get to call it. The benchmarks say Indy and I'm inclined to agree, even against all my calculations (as they are now).

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 16 Predictions, Suspicions

I lost faith in the Packers, but then again, that wasn't very difficult this year. My two other upset predictions turned out to be true, as did a couple suspicions that I didn't make into predictions.

Saturday Games
	WAS	at	TEN		Everyone picked TEN and they won.
	BAL	at	SD		The benchmarks had the Chargers (still SD for me) but given the quality of the Ravens' new QB, I had to up their ranking for the week, giving them the edge. Turned out that I was right.
Sunday Early Games
	NYG	at	IND		Everyone picked IND and they won. I wasn't completely surprised that the Giants had the lead for most of the game, as this one also gave me a suspicion, but it wasn't enough for me to change my pick
	JAX	at	MIA		Here, I had a suspicion that Miami couldn't win but I went with the benchmarks and picked them anyway.
	ATL	at	CAR		The benchmarks were split, the NFL still foolishly hanging on to Carolina's ability to win games, but the rest of correctly picked Atlanta to win.
	CIN	at	CLE		Everyone picked CLE and they won
	TB	at	DAL		Everyone picked DAL and they won
	MIN	at	DET		Everyone picked MIN and they won
	BUF	at	NE		Everyone picked NE and they won
	GB	at	NYJ		I didn't have faith and I'm not too impressed with the overtime win over one of the worst teams in the league. This is the only one of my three "upset" predictions that wasn't true.
	HOU	at	PHI		The benchmarks were split, with the NFL correctly identifying Houston as the better team. However, with Foles as QB and a playoff berth at stake, I cast suspicion aside and went with the other benchmark to correctly pick Philly.
Sunday Late Games
	LA	at	ARI		Everyone picked LA and they won
	CHI	at	SF		Everyone picked CHI and they won
	PIT	at	NO		Everyone picked NO and they won
Sunday & Monday Night Games
	KC	at	SEA		Three words: Seattle at home. The benchmarks had Kansas City but I just couldn't go along time time. Fortunately, for me, I was right.
	DEN	at	OAK		Oakland beat Pittsburgh so I definitely had a suspicion they could beat Denver but I went with the benchmarks, picking Denver, and missed the upset.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 12 I'm still here

There once was a time in my life when I was bored, when I had nothing to do, but that time is not now. I've managed to fill my days now with anything and everything, not the least of which being keeping up with my picks which have been good. Up until Week 7, things weren't looking great - I was keeping pace with the main benchmark but just barely. That's when I reevaluated my algorithm and brought it back to the original intent. This adjustment took my season accuracy from about 64% to 70% and my accuracy for Week 7 to 100%. It's gone down since then but always comfortably above the benchmark.

The dark lines track the actual accuracy rate each week and the pale lines represent the trend lines, showing that my calculation, while more erratic than the benchmark, is trending better. Week 12 results assume the following:

• Miami wins, against the prediction of both me and the benchmark (they're tied right now)
• Denver wins, again upsetting both predictions (Denver is ahead right now)
• Minnesota wins, as predicted
• Houston wins, as predicted by the benchmark by upsetting my prediction (it's a long story)

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Thirteen Epiphany

This was the week I discovered how to work player injuries into my calculation and it made all the difference. This week, the calculation lined up exactly with the benchmark except for Minnesota and Atlanta. My calculation had Minnesota and the benchmark had Atlanta. Guess who won...

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Uh, Week One Redo?

If it's not one thing, it's another. The rounding on my calculation wasn't working right so I have a slightly different Super Bowl prediction.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

SEA

Divisional

Divisional

KC

A6

N3

CAR

Conference

Conference

NE

A3

N3

CAR

N1

DAL

OAK

A1

NE

A3

N1

DAL

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

OAK

A1

N4

ARI

OAK

OAK

A1

N2

MIN

Champions

PIT

A2

N5

NYG

N4

ARI

PIT

A2

IND

A5

N4

ARI

IND

A5

N4

ARI

HOU

A4

Sorry to have missed Weeks Four and Five. I certainly have plenty to say, but life is much busier these days. In other news, I went to the dentist last weekend for the first time in [longer than recommended] and I had NO CAVITIES! WOOOOOOOOOO!