Oh Yeah, Football: Week Nine Wrap Up

On Wednesday, November 1, as I left my local haunt, I reminded the newest waiter and former runner, Evan, of the valuable lesson he learned about waiting tables that night, one that I happened to witness earlier. Me: So, Evan, what did you learn today? Evan (a Texans fan): I learned that if I make fun of Rodgers' injury, my quarterback gets hurt. Tbh, that wasn't a bad lesson either. Not that I'm happy about Watson's injury. After so many years of chaos, to have a star under Center (even though he usually wasn't directly under Center) was so nice to see. But alas, Week 9 was back to the usual for the Texans.

Best part of the Texans game, by far.

On the other hand, Houston was a little distracted this week, especially on Friday. I maybe saw an inning or two of the World Series this year and I don't recognize a single Astros player, but who can resist a parade?

WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS, BABY! #Astros #Houston #WorldSeries

A post shared by Ursula Ann (@ursalicious) on Nov 3, 2017 at 2:52pm PDT

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Two I'm Finally Ready

Phew. THE CHAOS IS RECEDING AND MY WEEKEND WAS VERY NORMAL.

Ahem, I mean, yeah. I can use my kitchen again, my living room is not full of furniture, each load of laundry is being washed only once before being put in the dryer, and I'm watching football on a Sunday while putting the scores into the spreadsheet. Last week, my calculation got 67% correct and Gut was 73%. The benchmarks were 67% and 47%. I wasn't surprised to hear that Houston defeated Cincinnati on Thursday. Just like Houston can't defeat New England, Cincinnati can't defeat Houston, especially at home. Then all of the early games lined up with my calculation. In truth, the only game that didn't line up all day was the Cowpokes implosion in Denver. Yes, my Packers lost, even after sneakily allowing the Falcons to get a (nearly) 25 point lead on them mid-way into the 3rd, but my calculation had Atlanta. This means that the worst my calculation can do is 88%, which is the best just one of my benchmarks can do.

Oh, and now I'm 80% on the season. The calculation has the Giants tomorrow and as the NFC Champs in February.

Oh Yeah, Football: Week One Wait, What?

So I changed up my Annual Summer Vacay, this year in Oregon, to come back to Houston early, on August 28th, and have some time off work to get things done. One of which was to finish my football spreadsheet in time for the season opener on the 7th, but some soggy douchebag named Harvey got in my way.

I was stranded in Portland until the 31st and might have been there longer had I not decided to just go back to Wisconsin, see the folks, and sleep in warm beds for free. I then got home on September 3rd to an apartment with damp carpets. It wasn't flood water, just rain water, but it still had to be fixed. So I had to clear out my carpeted rooms which had me living like a hoarder for a few days. But the carpets are clean, Bruno is happy, and things are getting back to normal.

I'm starting to enter data into my spreadsheet, but it's gonna take a while. I'm watching Denver trying to hold on to their lead against San Diego (sorry, I had enough trouble changing STL to LA last year, I'm not doing it again) but I'll probably go to bed soon. Packers won, the Texans lost, and my boyfriend kicked some Patriots ass on Thursday.

The Running Game: Divisional Clairvoyance

On Friday, my personal trainer asked me for a prediction on the final points for the Texans and Patriots game. I knew the spread was 16 (in favor of New England, of course) and was reminded by a friend from the night before that Houston was shut out by New England in Week 3, who scored 27 points with their 3rd string quarterback. Oh, and the Texans very rarely score more than 17 points per game.

With those facts in mind, my prediction was that New England's score would be above 30, and Houston wouldn't be shut out again, but their score wouldn't be better than mid-teens. This was later repeated to a few other individuals, one that questioned the Patriots' ability to score more than 30 points against the league's best defense, but I held strong.

Not that I wanted the Patriots to win tonight. There are very few things I want to see less than Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, and one of them is him holding that Lombardi Trophy. Their elimination from the playoffs tonight would have been a relief. And I say this even though the elimination of the Texans from the playoffs means that I win $50. Like every other decent American citizen, my hatred for the Patriots runs deep.

Well, anyway, the game finished a few hours ago, so let's take a look at that score...

BOOM

The Running Game: Week Sixteen Better Late than Never

I was at home in Wisconsin, where it was *so cold* or *خیلی سرد* (kheli sard), in Persian, for Christmas. A foot of snow on the ground, freezing rain, and on Monday, the wind. Holy Jesus, the wind on Monday. But about Football, what can I say? The Packers won, thank goodness, my Gut picks did well, but overall, I'm going to finish the season with a calculation that barely does above 60%. Also, sorry, Mom, but Cincinnati cannot win in Prime Time or against the Texans. It's just the way it is.

Wind made the ice freeze at an angle

The Running Game: Week Ten You Win Some You Lose Some

Or, in the case of one of my benchmarks, all but, at most, four (maybe five, if they also picked Baltimore) of your picks lose after having 77% accuracy last week. The Packers also lost, but that was no surprise. Painful, but not surprising. Apparently, now Clay Matthews is injured, which is really hurting them, just like the loss of Jordy Nelson hurt them last year. My thought is that, you know, if your whole team falls apart because one good non-quarterback player is out, maybe your team isn't that great. The Texans lost JJ friggen' 'Watt and they can still win games. Sigh... Packers...

I really do need more garbage bags.

What is up with those lines up there? ^^ What the hell?

	Calc	Bench	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
CLE at BAL	BAL	BAL	It was easy to go with BAL	BAL
HOU at JAX	HOU	Split	The Home team is abysmal, don't make me regret this, HOU	HOU
KC at CAR	KC	Split	Can my boyfriend, back from IR, and his team win? I'm hedging, CAR	KC
DEN at NO	DEN	Split	The odds are giving me pause, so I will hedge with NO	DEN
LA at NYJ	NYJ	Split	Can Grizzly Adams do it? I'm dubious, LA	LA
ATL at PHI	ATL	ATL	Matty Ice is on fire, but I am going to hedge with PHI	PHI
MIN at WAS	MIN	Split	Can Minestrone get over their post-bye slump? No, WAS	WAS
GB at TEN	TEN	GB	Oh, Packers, please, please, please, please	TEN
CHI at TB	TB	Split	Cutler's back, but that's a mixed bag too, oh well, CHI	TB
MIA at SD	SD	SD	I can't see Miami winning this game, SD	MIA
SF at ARI	ARI	ARI	Enormous spread here, and I don't see it any other way, ARI	ARI
DAL at PIT	DAL	Split	Considering hedging, but after last week's implosion, DAL	DAL
SEA at NE	NE	NE	Seattle needs a running game again, so I have to go with NE	...
CIN at NYG	NYG	Split	Cinci needs the win, but by the stats, I gotta go with NYG	...

The Running Game: Week Six Disappointments and Curses

Coming off a week where the AFC and NFC Champions were defeated by Divisional rivals that are rarely, if ever, contenders, I can't finish this sentence in a satisfactory way. Favre returned to Lambeau again, and the Packers lost in Lambeau again, but that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot are no Chicago Bears. They were wearing those godawful throw-back uniforms ::vomit::. Maybe Favre's curse had an effect on Prescott. No, really, Favre, you're great, we love you, but please, stay home.

I'm sitting here, watching Osweiler break my heart, and break everyone's heart in Houston. Well, not right now because the Texans' defense is on the field. I liked the table I shared last week, so I made the same one for this season.

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
DEN at SD	DEN	DEN	San Diego isn't necessarily as bad as their record says, but still, DEN	SD
SF at BUF	BUF	BUF	Kaepernick is back, but who knows how good he is. BUF	BUF
PHI at WAS	WAS	PHI	Calculation says WAS, but the Benchmarks and my gut say PHI	WAS
CLE at TEN	TEN	TEN	This may be the best shot for a Browns win, but Murray & Mariota TEN	TEN
BAL at NYG	NYG	Split	I haven't yet given up on them BAL	NYG
CAR at NO	CAR	CAR	Things are not going well this year for my boy, NO	NO
JAX at CHI	JAX	Split	This is a tough one, but in the end, I'm sticking with JAX	JAX
LA at DET	LA	Split	Another one I can't explain, just a feeling about DET	DET
PIT at MIA	PIT	PIT	I honestly don't see Miami winning this game, barring the worst for PIT	MIA
CIN at NE	NE	NE	I really, really want the Bengals to win, but NE	NE
KC at OAK	OAK	OAK	I see some upset potential here KC	KC
ATL at SEA	SEA	SEA	We all know about Seattle, but I got a feeling ATL	SEA
DAL at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!! But oh man, that Prescott, Idk, eff it, GO PACK GO!!!!	DAL
IND at HOU	HOU	HOU	This is another tough one, and it may be wishful thinking, HOU	...
NYJ at ARI	ARI	ARI	Grizzly Adams has been slipping, and Stanton & Fitzgerald ARI	...

The fonts look messed up, and I can't stand to hear the banter about overpaying Osweiler right now. 2:28 to go, and Luck goes down. Hope springs eternal.

The Running Game: Free Agency Grades and Power Ranks

The Free Agency Grades and Power Rankings are in, so two of five columns for the Offseason portion of my Season Open Points spreadsheet have been filled in. I've got to wait until late April to finish up Free Agency, then early May for the Draft. Fortunately, for me, I have more than enough to distract me during the month of April, which will include my first ever trip to Asia.

There have been some interesting changes so far, including Demarco Murray heading to, of all places, Tennessee. Cousins and Bradford are staying put, and rumor has it that, if the 49ers can't keep him, Kaepernick could head to Denver. The reason for that is the biggest news of all: the Texans poached former Denver backup and NFL Quarterback Beauty Pageant 2015 First Runner Up Brock Osweiler!

The Broncos reportedly offered him up to $16 million per season for a new contract, but Houston edged them out with a $72 million, four year deal. Not everyone is excited about this move, with the most amusing assessment being, "The Houston Texans are run like someone wanted to dare themselves to win with a poorly constructed roster in Madden just for the hell of it." The commentariat at NFL Memes were also downers, noting that he could be overrated and his 6'7" frame is going to slow down fast. Whatever, though, I don't care, and I don't agree. The NFL's dreamiest QB will be playing in Houston, just a train ride and some requests to use friends' and colleagues' season tickets away from yours truly.

Going for Two: Wild Card Wonders

We were a little late to the first game of the Wild Card weekend, but overheard "106 yards" in reference to the kickoff, and knew that Kansas City was the team that must have ran the kick-off back for a touchdown. We found our section and then began the long descent down to row C and to our seats. It was surreal to me, being so close to something I've mostly seen on TV. Even the games I've been to were high up in Lambeau, and toward a corner. But now, I was right there, and there was JJ Watt, and OMG, ALEX SMITH!

GO TEXANS!!!

There was hope in the first half, and there was excitement. When the screen told us to get loud, we GOT LOUD!! But the murmurs about Hoyer got louder too after turnover after blown drive after turnover and soon enough, I was chanting "We Want Weeden!" along with the loudest of them, all to no avail. Apparently, the coach never even considered taking Hoyer out, and maybe Weeden wasn't the savior that would have helped, but I can't imagine that he would have had a turnover on every. single. promising. drive. No, instead of giving us Weeden, the Texans didn't score any points and lost by 30. There was a disgusting thing that one of the Kansas City players did that had me screaming "EJECT HIM FROM THE GAME" and "#*$& YOU FISHER". However, what I saw as an egregious and unnecessary act - as did many others in the stands - appears to be nothing more than, at worst, a "dirty play" to the rest of the world. And after that, Watt was out of the game, but with a groin injury.

I wish you played for another team, and not Washington.

With 6 minutes left to go, I decided to go to the Kansas City sideline for a closer look at my boyfriend, and a closer look did I get. ::swoon:: The backup QB was in and kneeled down for the final time and we went back up the stairs to board the train and head back to Midtown, one of my calculation picks being right.

We saw parts of the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati game, with sleet, or rain, or snow, and a closer, more exciting game at hand. We did catch the final few minutes of the game, and all Cincinnati had to do was hold Pittsburgh back from field goal range and they would win, but they couldn't do that. A bad hit by a Bengal led to penalty yards for the Steelers, and they won by two points, proving my prediction right for the second game.

Today, we missed kick-off again, since my friend and I were out for breakfast, but we got back in time for the second half, with Minnesota up by 3 to 0. Then the Vikings got two more field goals before Wilson missed the snap. As he scrambled and picked up the ball, Tyler Lockett paid attention and stayed open to receive the Wilson pass and got inside the Vikings 5 yard line! Soon enough, the Seahawks had 7 points on the board, and then they had 10, but Minestrone was making a comeback and was in field goal range.

LACES OUT!!!! LACES OUT! Did you learn NOTHING from Ace Ventura?!?

I saw the set-up, with the kicker kicking into the sunlight, and I had a feeling. Maybe it was my hopes, because I needed Seattle to win and really wanted Minnesota to lose, but I think it was the sunlight. That kick sailed wide left, and another one of my picks was correct. After that, I took my friend to the airport. When I got back, I put the Green Bay game on for a little while, but went back and forth between the game and the NFL Network. Eventually, I had the game on mute with Rifftrax on my computer. The Packers were down by 5 when I got home, then Washington got a touchdown. I hoped they would blow the extra point, and they did, but they were up by 11. After that, however, Green Bay became Green Bay again, and scored 17 unanswered points.  YOU LIKE THAT! WE ALL LIKE THAT! Washington got another touchdown and made the extra point, but it didn't matter, because the Packers responded with 18 more points to make my calculation 100% accurate this week! WOOOOOOOOOO PACKERS! PACKERS WON THE SUPER BOWL WILD CARD GAME!

Going for Two: Wild Card Shoulda Coulda Didn't

It's easy to give Kansas City a pass because their mascot isn't a racial slur and their imagery is significantly more subtle (though still an appropriation) than Washington. I'm also not prone to watching Kansas City or Washington games, so I'm not familiar with their fans' activity, but I suspected that it wasn't good.

Yesterday, I had a unique opportunity to attend the Kansas City at Houston playoff game and had seats in the third row of the "Bull Pen", which was right behind the uprights in the north end zone. And as everyone who reads this blog knows, Alex Smith is my Football Boyfriend, so I made a sign that said "I <3 you Alex Smith" on one side. On the other side, it said, "but not your team Go Texans," with "Change the Name" and "#NotYourMascots" in smaller print.

Well, as my calculation and my benchmarks predicted, Kansas City won the game. Since the still-probably-concussed Hoyer was never taken out of the game, they shut out the Texans, so most Texans fans left the game by the 4th quarter. The few Kansas City fans then moved down closer to the games, and a large contingent of them were down on the KC sideline. With about 6 minutes left, I decided to go down there too so I could again share my feelings with Alex Smith. I held my sign in front of my red Texans shirt, with the Alex Smith side facing forward, and was successfully camouflaged in the 6th row. Yelling "I love you, Alex Smith!" a few times sealed the deal.

This was another unique opportunity, this time to be in one of the most uncomfortable crowds I've ever been in, complete with white people in headdresses and face-paint. As I learned earlier in the game, football crowds often do the "First Down" hand symbol when their team gets one, and that symbol is an awful lot like the "Tomahawk Chop". Down among the crowd of primarily white Kansas City fans, they accompanied that hand gesture with that chant. I grimaced whenever that happened, and hopefully, that grimace made it on to one fan's attempt to get a video of the whole affair.

I contemplated telling people how racist all of this was. I contemplated moving the paper with "Change the Name" and "#NotYourMascots" from the Texans side of my sign to the Alex Smith side (it was taped on). I even contemplated somehow telling one of the headdress guys that he was being incredibly offensive by wearing the formal clothing of another culture as a costume for entertainment value. I contemplated all of these things, but I did nothing, absolutely nothing.

The fact is that I was too scared to make waves - it was scary to have those messages on the Texans side of my sign while among Texans fans. I'm nervous posting about this so much on this blog too, because I abhor arguments. I end up getting too angry, my heart rate goes up, and my ability to make effective arguments plummets. At the end of the day, however, it's still an important issue. I won't stop talking about it until it's no longer an issue, because I know how this affects real people. Next time I'm in this situation, I hope I will have more courage.

Going for Two: Playoff Preview

I can end the speculation and the maybes: I have two tickets to Reliant Stadium for Saturday's game. When I first contemplated going to the game, I figured I'd be in a higher section, maybe on the sidelines, but probably in a corner. Then I learned that they were in the north end zone, third row, but I still assumed corner. Instead, no, they're in the center, right between the uprights When the players jump in the stands, I will be able to touch them! I'm not sure that I know anyone who has had this opportunity.

I'll be in that blue circle.

But now for my Power Rankings, with NFL Power Rank in parentheses. A couple points I want to make:
1. Being in the playoffs does not a top-12 team make. Sometimes, in the NFL, the better teams stay home.
2. Seeding schmeeding: these ranks are about which teams are better than others, not those with better records.
3. I won't write things for all teams, just all of the teams in order until I reach the last of the 12 playoff teams.

1 (2)	Seattle +4	Well, Seattle did defeat Arizona, and not only that, they did to Arizona what Arizona did to Green Bay the week before. They may be ready to go back to the Super Bowl for a third year after all. They will be in Minnesota for the Wild Card round, where they handed the Vikings their ass. With the final results in, the Seahawks now have won by the most points (19.9) and lost by the fewest (5.5). Has the Legion of Boom returned just in time for another Lombardi trophy?
2 (3)	Arizona -1	I don't think anyone was expecting this outcome. Sorry Cardinals, though you should have a chance for revenge in the Conference Championship.
3 (6)	New England -1	This was always a possibility, of course, but it came as a surprise to everyone. Now, New England has to go to Denver for the Peyton and Brock show if they even make it to the Conference Championship this year. Is it possible that they peaked too soon?
4 (1)	Carolina	And Carolina finally broke the pattern and managed a 15 & 1 season after all. Though, with the second easiest schedule in the league, it isn't as much of an accomplishment as everyone might think. My new calculation has them repeating the fate of the 2011 Packers this year.
5 (9)	Minnesota +3	You know what? The Vikings still suck, and they'll lose to Seattle next week, the end.
6 (11)	Green Bay -3	The first time the Lions, Bears, and Vikings win in Lambeau in the same season since 1969 and the Packers are STILL number 6? I can only pray that they win in Washington, but I don't pray, so it might be hopeless.
7 (7)	Pittsburgh	Well, Pittsburgh, you're in. Don't waste it.
8 (5)	Denver -2	It's not so much that Denver is worse than they were the week before, but it was the meteoric rise of Minnesota and Seattle that brought Denver down. And it's not so much that Brock was letting Denver down, but that the team just really needed Peyton.
9 (4)	Kansas City	They won, New England lost, but Denver won too, so Kansas City is in the Wild Card round. This means that my boyfriend is coming to Houston, and with my seats, he will see my sign telling him that I <3 him. It's going to be an amazing game.
10 (8)	Cincinnati +1	Cincinnati made it back to the top ten with a win over Baltimore, but Pittsburgh comes to town in the Wild Card round, and AJ is no Andy. It will be a good game, but it's liable to break some Bengal hearts.
11 (14)	New York Jets -1	Oh, Jets. Jets, Jets, Jets. You almost had the playoffs in your hand. You needed one more Fitzy touchdown and you were in, but instead, Ryan will be sitting at home, watching his former team in the playoffs. Better luck next year?
12 (12)	Houston +1	And now for the better of the two Champions of the garbage divisions, the Houston Texans. This team really turned it around after the bye week, and netted 7.1 points per game in this second season, after a first season with a net negative 3.1 points.They took what could have been a 6 & 10 season to one that could have been 12 & 4. I hope they can defeat Kansas City, but my boyfriend won't make it easy.
13 (13)	Buffalo -1	Buffalo played the spoiler this week, but they will still be sitting at home with an 8 & 8 record. In other news, I now have an opinion about this team: I hate them.
14 (19)	Atlanta	And here we have the first NFC team that makes this part of the list because a lower ranking team is in the playoffs. Except they too are at 8 & 8, and what could have been a stellar season has ended in Week 17. Better luck next year. Just make sure Julio Jones sticks around.
15 (10)	Washington	You know, Kirk, I would like that. I would like your enthusiasm, your skill, and your being the host to my Packers in the Wild Card round if you weren't running all over and making a mockery of Native American culture, if your mascot didn't perpetuate the image of Native Americans as being part of the past, instead of real people that exist today. I'd enjoy this game if I didn't have to listen to a racial slur repeated over and over. #*$& this team, and the same to the rest of the NFC East teams that couldn't be good enough to represent the other garbage division.

And now the rest...

		22 (17)	New Orleans -1
		23 (18)	Indianapolis -1
		24 (15)	Detroit -1
		25 (25)	Tampa Bay -1
		26 (24)	Chicago -1
16 (20)	Philadelphia +1	27 (30)	Dallas
17 (21)	St. Louis -1	28 (27)	Jacksonville
18 (23)	Miami +8	29 (29)	San Diego
19 (28)	San Francisco +1	30 (31)	Cleveland
20 (22)	New York GIants -2	31 (26)	Baltimore
21 (16)	Oakland -2	32 (32)	Tennessee