The Running Game: Week One Last Minute Predictability

Earlier today, after the cable guy fixed my connection and sound came on my TV, while the early games were on, I was a little worried. Okay, a LOT worried. Oakland was down, Minnesota was down, Cincinnati was down, Kansas City was WAY down, Buffalo, Atlanta, and Houston were down. Even Green Bay was down for a second - and they never had a comfortable lead. But, as I always tell myself, nothing matters before the half. Houston came back and kicked ass, Green Bay managed a win, as did Cinci and Minnesota, Oakland took a risk that paid off in a 2-point conversion to win, and Kansas City won in overtime. Only Atlanta and Buffalo let me down, but I don't even really care. I didn't stay home for the late games, and I actually didn't watch them as I had to go for a walk to get more than 2,700 steps on the day. I walked all around, took over both gyms at Baldwin Park, then started on a long trek for fancy confectioneries.

V H Win 69% CAR DEN DEN CAR TB ATL TB ATL MIN TEN MIN MIN CLE PHI PHI PHI CIN NYJ CIN CIN OAK NO OAK OAK SD KC KC KC BUF BAL BAL BUF CHI HOU HOU HOU GB JAX GB GB MIA SEA SEA SEA NYG DAL NYG NYG DET IND DET IND

Now I'm home - I got home in time to see the second half of the Sunday Night game, and for the Patriots, sometimes, it's better to be lucky than to be good. Okay, that's a little unfair because I'm bitter that Arizona lost. Oh well, I was 500 for the later games today, and I'm hoping Pittsburgh and Los Angeles don't let me down.

The Running Game: Week One Football's Back!

Woohoo! Football! And real football this time! Okay, okay, first I had to take over the local Pokemon gym (and two of my monsters were still in there earlier today), then I went home and turned on my TV, but something was wrong. I had to call my cable company for them to "rehit" my device. After several cable box rehits, getting escalated to Level 3 support, and about 100 minutes, I still could not watch the game. Instead, I was relegated to watching the progress on NFL.com.

At first, we all know that it was promising. Our golden boy got closer to having the highest number of career running touchdowns as a QB - and he's only 27 - but the end was dicey and they were down by 4. Things looked good until they had to settle for a field goal, but then they got the ball back quickly. The clock lurched down, and my heart pounded. Were they in field goal range? All it takes is one good throw - Aaron Rodgers could do it - please don't let us down, Cam! But then it happened. The word Final appeared in the middle, with Denver still ahead by 1 point. How? Wha? Wait a second...

I don't care what anybody says, I still love you.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Okay, okay, I gotta get over this. It's gonna be okay - they can only go up from here, right? Or maybe they can just go down, over and over again, loss after loss and - no, stop it. STOP IT.

In other news, after putting in many, many stats, then dialing back for fear of "overcooking" my calculation, I have the final numbers and am ready to publish the Post Season Predictions.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

GB

Divisional

Divisional

CIN

A6

N6

GB

Conference

Conference

DEN

A5

N3

NYG

N2

MIN

PIT

A2

NE

A3

N1

ARI

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

OAK

A1

N1

ARI

ARI

OAK

A1

N2

MIN

Champions

PIT

A2

N5

SEA

N1

ARI

OAK

A1

DEN

A5

N4

CAR

NE

A3

N4

CAR

JAX

A4

Sadly, the outcome of the first game does change this up just a little. Carolina doesn't beat Seattle in the Wild Card round, but Minnesota has its revenge (LACES OUT!) until Phoenix. To be honest, I don't think this will actually happen - especially Jacksonville representing the AFC South - but whatever, there it is, with the right colors this time.

The Running Game: Preseason Blues

I hate the preseason. There, I said it. Everyone gets so excited, like, "oh, yay, football is back!"

But it's not real football, it's preseason. Christ, it might as well be college football, for all it matters. The players are nobodies, crazy $#*! happens, and I don't care about it.

A team could lose all of their preseason games and then win the Super Bowl, and the team that won all their preseason games can go 2-14. It means nothing, none of the outcomes have any bearing on the season, at all.

Oh, except for one, like when the best player on the team tears an ACL or breaks a collarbone on a stupid first quarter preseason play. That's why I had no problem with the cancellation of the Hall of Fame game this year. My Packers don't need that.

The Running Game: Preseason Predictions

Earlier this summer, I noticed that the site I had leveraged heavily for ranking different parts of teams last year was not putting out the same rankings this year. Since then, I've been working overtime to figure out what information I should use instead. I've discovered other rankings, played with weightings, and even created my own ranks from fantasy projections to get to a calculation that is one last data point away from the final product.

So, after all that, the NFC projections danced around a bit, but thanks to an easy early season and good projections, despite the 30 to 1 odds, Oakland is still predicted to win it all this year. Taking a look at their games this season, I don't see one that I would expect them to lose until week 12 when Carolina comes to town. Kansas City could have a chance in week 6, then maybe Denver in week 9, if their defense can make up for their unfortunate quarterback situation, and Houston has a chance, I guess. Still, I'm starting to wonder if a modest investment of my own isn't a bad idea. Of course, I'll know much more after Week 1.

Perhaps it's not just a distant memory.

The Running Game: Earlier Projections

The 2015 season, Free Agency, and Draft have all completed, and that means that about half of my initial calculation for predicting the winners and losers of Week 1 is ready. By projecting the other half of the points, filling in the schedules, and adding some very low and impossible point values to create potentially realistic Mid-Season calculation results, I can make an early prediction for the 2016 playoffs.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

NYG

Divisional

Divisional

PIT

A6

N4

PHI

Conference

Conference

KC

A5

N3

MIN

N3

MIN

CIN

A2

NE

A3

N1

CAR

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

OAK

A1

N1

CAR

OAK

OAK

A1

N2

ARI

Champions

CIN

A2

N5

SEA

N1

CAR

OAK

A1

KC

A5

N3

MIN

NE

A3

N4

PHI

JAX

A4

One thing I haven't done is update the rank-based color scheme for each team, so the current colors are based on the relative rank of the team at the beginning of the 2015 season. The colors range from dark red for "very bad" through orange, yellow, and light green to dark green for "very good".

Now, my numbers don't lie. They may not know what they're talking about, but they don't knowingly lie. So the fact that FootballLocks has Oakland at 40 to 1 odds of winning Super Bowl LI shouldn't stop you from putting all your money on the Raiders to go all the way. What should stop you from doing that is that this is the result from less than half of my entire calculation and we're a full 3 months away from the start of the Regular Season. I mean, I wish them the best, but if Oakland gets to the big game, I will eat my hat. Well, first I will get a hat, and then I will eat it.