The Running Game: Week Thirteen No Suprises

I guess that's what happens when hedging all picks based on the benchmarks. But I am also making careful picks based on the work I did over Week Eleven. I'm not sure if the Upset Rates line up as well this week as they did last week, but the data does not seem to be completely unreliable.

	Calc	Bench	Thoughts & Gut pick (2015-16 Calc pick success rate vs. Underdog upset rate)	Winner
DAL at MIN	MIN	DAL	GODDAMNIT, COWBOYS. They're on fire, DAL (64% vs. 27%)	DAL
DEN at JAX	DEN	DEN	The Home team just isn't good enough to beat DEN (72% vs. 14%)	DEN
KC at ATL	KC	Split	Going with Matty Ice & their upset rate at home, ATL (81% vs. 51%)	KC
HOU at GB	GB	GB	I really, really don't see Houston beating PACKERS! (60% vs. 15%)	GB
PHI at CIN	PHI	Split	Wentz is the rookie that isn't ready for primetime, CIN (42% vs. 14%)	CIN
DET at NO	NO	Split	The Saints' success rate has nothing on upsets by DET (67% vs. 48%)	DET
SF at CHI	CHI	Split	In the battle of the worst, the line is SF (41% vs. 21%)	CHI
LA at NE	NE	NE	The Rams' upset rate isn't enough to beat NE (80% vs. 37%)	NE
MIA at BAL	BAL	Split	Miami is definitely turning my head, MIA (53% vs. 36%)	BAL
BUF at OAK	BUF	OAK	LET'S GO OAK-LAND! OAK (53% vs. 16%)	OAK
TB at SD	TB	SD	Hedge time, SD (60% vs. 31%)	TB
WAS at ARI	ARI	Split	I think the Cards can hold onto this one ARI (65% vs. 34%)	ARI
NYG at PIT	PIT	Split	Looking at that Upset Rate, I'm sticking with PIT (68% vs. 10%)	PIT
CAR at SEA	SEA	SEA	I'm sorry, Carolina, it's not happening this year SEA (54% vs. 49%)	...
IND at NYJ	NYJ	IND	Both rates are leading me to hedge with IND (45% vs. 26%)	...

With all the attention on my Gut picks, I only just now noticed how well my Official calculation did this week. The tie-breaker game is tomorrow night. That's about the only interesting thing about Colts at Jets.