The Running Game: Week Fourteen Calculation Suckage

Something is up with my calculation - the official one. Something needs to be changed. The problem I have is deciding what to change. The Power Calculation started strong, with an average of 67% for the first 7 weeks of the season, and, at best, an average of 57% for the next 7. Actually, nearly everything did really well for the first 7 weeks, except for the benchmarks, then the tables turned for the last 7 weeks. You can see the results for that on the right for nearly everything that is tracked in my spreadsheet. The colors in the columns are meant to show the highest results for that particular time period. Dark green is the best, then light green, yellow, and orange for the worst. Each column is different, depending on how my numbers stacked up against the benchmarks. For instance, in Weeks 1-7, the benchmarks performed poorly, so 61% for Point Differential got light green, but in Weeks 8-14, 62% for that same calculation was only yellow. The surprise for me is the way that Weighted Wins is performing right now. That calculation uses the value assigned to the losing team based on the Official Calculation to add to the new value of the winning team. Actually, that's roughly how all my calculations work, just with different variables. Anyway, there are just far too many numbers over there, and running through all those calculations are maxing out my poor Chromebook.

Football Locks Picks 56% 69% 63% Picks based on NFL Power Rankings 57% 65% 61% Weeks Calculation 1-7 8-14 All Official Calculation 59% 62% 61% Adding overall '16 Home Field Advantage 58% 64% 61% Experimental Ranking Calculation 65% 59% 62% Gut Picks 65% 64% 64% Early Calculation (Official for Weeks 1-10) 59% 62% 61% Mid-Season Calculation (Official after Week 10) 59% 57% 58% Weighted Wins (part of Mid-Season) 60% 69% 65% Point Differential (part of Mid-Season) 61% 62% 62% Winners based on record 56% 69% 62% Home Team 58% 57% 57% Home & Away Advantage for last 2 years 66% 56% 61% Home & Away Advantage for last 2 years 65% 58% 62% Historical Comparison for last 2 years 68% 61% 65% Historical Comparison for last 3 years 62% 62% 62% Power Calculation 67% 57% 62%

* All of these numbers assume that Dallas and New England win their games this week.