The Running Game: Week Twelve Back Again

I try to post every week, but what can I say about last weekend? Oops? It was a two-day weekend, with a Persian lesson and preparation (even if only mental) for Thanksgiving. Oh yeah, and I was busy updating my "All Years All Teams" workbook, which drives my historical calculations, which included adding the current Games sheet to all workbooks back to 2012, then copying that to... oh, it was a lot of work, but I'm finally done. This means that I can see the year-to-date accuracy of my calculation for each team and see each team's "upset" rate. Here, Upset means "going against my calculation", not the Vegas line.

So far this week, there seems to be a trend...

It's not 100% perfect, but all of the teams with an Upset ratio of 20% or more ended up winning. Well, except Washington, but they did beat the spread.

The interesting thing is that, according to the teevee, Atlanta beating Arizona and Baltimore's win were notable. They also mentioned the wins by the Giants and the Dolphins. However, looking at my picks and the upset ratios for their opponents, those outcomes weren't really in doubt.

It really spells bad news for the Packers tomorrow night. Really bad news, because their upset ratio is 0%, but even if my calculation had picked them, Philly's upset ratio is 25%. I fear that the Green & Gold are DOA tomorrow night, but I can always hope, right? right?