The Running Game: Week Fifteen Picks

So far this week, things are looking significantly better for my calculations, but the benchmarks are holding too. Here are my picks:

	Calc	Bench	Thoughts & Gut pick (2015-16 Calc pick success rate vs. Underdog upset rate)	Winner
LA at SEA	SEA	SEA	Who did the Seahawks even play? The Rams? Oh jeez. SEA (58% vs. 45%)	SEA
MIA at NYJ	MIA	MIA	It'll be close, but the 'phins have this in the bag. MIA (46% vs. 43%)	MIA
PIT at CIN	PIT	PIT	Sorry, mom, but Cinci needs serious rebuilding. PIT (62% vs. 12%)	PIT
DET at NYG	NYG	Split	I'm going to hedge, goddamn Giants. DET (80% vs. 63%)	NYG
PHI at BAL	PHI	BAL	My calculation thinks to highly of Philly. BAL (59% vs. 36%)	BAL
GB at CHI	GB	GB	The Packers really need this one. GB (60% vs. 26%)	GB
IND at MIN	MIN	MIN	Minnesota is also overrated, so I will hedge. IND (67% vs. 39%)	IND
CLE at BUF	BUF	BUF	Cleveland can't catch a break. BUF (37% vs. 8%)	BUF
TEN at KC	KC	KC	My boyfriend and his team have this one sealed. KC (85% vs. 28%)	TEN
JAX at HOU	HOU	HOU	Jacksonville? Please, don't make me laugh. HOU (100% vs. 18%)	HOU
NO at ARI	ARI	ARI	New Orleans has a decent upset rate, so I hedge. NO (60% vs. 44%)	...
SF at ATL	ATL	ATL	Oh, 49ers, you won't catch a break this week. ATL (46% vs. 23%)	...
NE at DEN	NE	NE	I considered a hedge, but then stayed with NE (84% vs. 50%)	...
OAK at SD	OAK	OAK	I'm staying with OAK (74% vs. 40%)	...
TB at DAL	DAL	DAL	A TB win is possible, but not enough for a hedge. DAL (77% vs. 31%)	...
CAR at WAS	WAS	WAS	Carolina's upset rate is inflated from last year, WAS (61% vs. 69%)	...

I'm really just waiting for the Tampa Bay at Dallas game tonight. If TB can win that one, my calculations have them making the playoffs as the fifth seed and Dallas would stay as the first seed. I predict either that either Dallas will blow the Bucs out of the water, or it will be a nail-biter. The latter makes for a more interesting game, certainly.