Interesting things happen when you play with numbers. On Sunday, I discovered which teams had the easiest and hardest seasons- according to my calculations. Then on Monday, I decided to multiply that number by the difference between average points scored by the team and against the team. Maybe things aligned with my Playoff predictions because I’m using the same numbers to create all these calculations, or maybe they align because I know what I’m doing. The calculation predicts the following:
Conference
|
Conference
| |||||||||
N2
|
ARI
|
CIN
|
A2
| |||||||
Super Bowl
| ||||||||||
N2
|
ARI
|
ARI
|
NE
|
A1
| ||||||
N1
|
CAR
|
NE
|
A1
| |||||||
So I ranked the numbers - giving the hardest season a 1, and the easiest a 32, and the most average net points a 1 and the least a 32. The outcome of that was further from reality than I could abide, so I scrapped it. Instead, I averaged the season difficulty number and multiplied that by the average net points. That produced the same results, but with less outlandish final numbers, I guess.
| 1 (3) | New England | ::vomits:: Okay, sorry about that, a reflex, I guess. New England's season is just above average in difficulty, and they net over 11 points per game. The loss to Denver was ordained by the Football Gods because of Brady’s face, and Philadelphia was a fluke. Barring more intervention from the Football Gods, New England is Super Bowl bound. |
| 2 (2) | Arizona | I've got Arizona winning the Super Bowl, but this week, they are only number two. They average more net points per game, but their season is just below average difficulty, and their most difficult opponents appear in Weeks 16 and 17: Green Bay and Seattle. If Arizona can produce in the next two weeks like they have in the last 8, they will win the Super Bowl. |
| 3 (6) | Green Bay | Surprising here, based on the way they've been playing, and no, I do not rig these things: Green Bay has clawed its way to third place. Their net points are in the “good” range, but half that of Arizona or New England. It is only be by virtue of having the most difficult of all schedules this year (and winning 10 of their 14 games) that they rank so high. Unfortunately for them and me, they will get their asses handed to them by Arizona.... twice. Then again, if they can win in week 16, anything is possible. |
| 4 (1) | Carolina | That’s right, the undefeated Panthers are just number 4 here because my numbers aren’t deluded by the undefeated season. It’s easy to be undefeated, frankly, when your division rivals are Tampa Bay and New Orleans and the AFC Division on your schedule happens to be the second worst Division in the league. They have the second easiest schedule in the league this year, but they have won by an average of 12 points every week, so they certainly aren't bad. |
| 5 (4) | Seattle | In the last five games, Seattle has netted an average of 20 points per game, 25 in the last three games. Early losses notwithstanding, Seattle could make it back to the Conference Championship, if not the Super Bowl. Certainly if they can come out of Arizona in Week 17 as the victors. . |
| 6 (5) | Pittsburgh | This team may not have fallen as far as Seattle this year, but it hasn't been the greatest season for Pittsburgh either. They have always been a threat, even without Big Ben, and recent defeats of Cincinnati and Denver, they’re finishing strong. Their last two opponents are the weaker division rivals, and they’re well poised to clinch that Wild Card spot. |
| 7 (9) | Denver | A two game losing-streak and a major opponent coming to town. Is it time to bring back Peyton? Eh, probably not. They still have the best defense in the world and are projected to defeat Cincinnati. |
| 8 (8) | Cincinnati | Pittsburgh was tough, but the toughest opponent you’ll face until the playoffs is this week. It seems like AJ McCarron could defeat Denver, if their warm-up against San Francisco can be trusted. With Baltimore schlepping into town during week 17, Cinci doesn’t really need the bye, but it would be nice. |
| 9 (7) | Kansas City | San Francisco dumped him, and I’m somewhat uncomfortable with his new team, but Alex Smith is my boyfriend for a reason. They are playing Cleveland and Oakland for the last two weeks, and if Denver falters even once in that time, an AFC Playoff game will go through Kansas City. |
| 10 (10) | New York Jets | After leaving Houston, it looks like the Buffalo Rider found a good home in New York with the Jets. He’s got a good receiver core and decent team that will end up with a record that should send the Jets to the playoffs. Should send them, that is, but won’t because, irony, the 9&7 Texans will go as AFC South Champions. |
| 11 (11) | Minnesota | Minestrone is back down to number 11 with the updated ranks, but originally, I didn't write anything about them. Um, Adrian Peterson, other players that are good. They win games, just barely. They had an average net point value of 0.5 at this point. |
Teams 12-32
| 22 (19) | Tampa Bay | ||
| 12 (15) | Buffalo | 23 (25) | Miami |
| 13 (16) | Houston | 24 (26) | Indianapolis |
| 14 (17) | Philadelphia | 25 (30) | Dallas |
| 15 (12) | Washington | 26 (24) | Jacksonville |
| 16 (20) | Atlanta | 27 (21) | Detroit |
| 17 (14) | New York GIants | 28 (23) | Chicago |
| 18 (18) | St. Louis | 29 (29) | San Diego |
| 19 (13) | Oakland | 30 (27) | Cleveland |
| 20 (28) | San Francisco | 31 (32) | Tennessee |
| 21 (22) | New Orleans | 32 (31) | Baltimore |
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