Going for Two: Week Sixteen Point Two Updates

Another week, another Jet surprising their quarterback during the post-game interview. This time, Ryan didn't react like a monkey. Last night's outcome was really for the best, even if it was a massive embarrassment for Cincinnati. At least they were already guaranteed a playoff spot. Unfortunately, their backup suffered an injury, which means they might be the Arizona of 2015.

Here is my newest Super Bowl prediction.

N2	ARI								DEN	A2
					Super Bowl
		N2	ARI		ARI		NE	A1
				Champions
N1	CAR								NE	A1

And now for my Power Ranks, with the NFL Power Rank in parentheses for comparison. Updated after improving the calculation that produces these ranks on the 30th, then again on the 4th.

1 (2)	Arizona +1	We knew that they would defeat Green Bay, but the blow out they delivered, along with New England's loss, pushed Arizona into the top spot this week. They average over 13 net points this season, almost three more points than the next highest, and they have been winning games by almost 17 points every time, which is also the highest average margin of victory in the league.
2 (3)	New England -1	A loss to Fitzpatrick's Jets knocked Brady's Patriots down a peg. A loss to Miami could knock them down further, and it isn't impossible. The Patriots do not seem to fare well in Miami, no matter how bad the Dolphins are. The gulf between New England and Arizona is only growing, and I couldn't be happier.
3 (10)	Green Bay	I swear that I don't rig this thing, but even the loss to Arizona didn't bring the Packers down. I think the NFL has this rank closer to the truth, but we will find out for sure if they manage to sweep the Vikings next week.
4 (1)	Carolina	Many are saying that the loss took the pressure off of Carolina, and I buy that. They need to blow out Tampa Bay and possibly a Green Bay loss to move up in the ranks before the playoffs start.
5 (6)	Seattle	Seattle has the second highest margin of victory this year and loses by the fewest points. They would need to blow out Arizona in Week 17 to move up in my ranks, but they made the playoffs. I doubt that they are as good as Arizona, but if they win this weekend, they could be going to a third straight Super Bowl.
6 (8)	Denver +1	Brock did it! Well, sort of - the Broncos did it, with Brock, and thanks to an unbelievably embarrassing snap for Cincinnati. With San Diego climbing into town in Week 17, things can only look up for Denver.
7 (7)	Pittsburgh -1	Oh, Pittsburgh, what is this I hear that you might miss the playoffs? You've got Cleveland coming up, and you did defeat Denver last week, but you couldn't get past Baltimore this week? You're supposed to be better than this.
8 (11)	Minnesota +3	The NFL doesn't give many points for blowing out the Giants, but my calculation does. I just hope they aren't so good that they defeat the Packers next week. Their net points increased from 0.5 to 3.7, but they do tend to lose by more points than they win by.
9 (4)	Kansas City	My boyfriend is taking the Appropriations to the playoffs, and if, somehow, the Bolts can win at altitude, Kansas City could be the AFC West Champions (I think). Their close win against a poor team is how they were edged out of the top ten for me, but 9 wins in a row is nothing to sneeze at. They also have the third highest margin of victory in the league.
10 (5)	New York Jets	Defeating New England and a Pittsburgh loss has catapulted the Jets into the playoff hunt, instead of the poor, poor AFC team sitting at home, despite a better record, watching the champion of the AFC garbage division in the playoffs. They will need to focus on Buffalo this week, since their luck up-state hasn't always been the greatest, but their talent seems to be on track.
11 (9)	Cincinnati -3	A loss to Denver isn't the worst thing in the world - it's not like you were at home, playing Detroit or the Bears like some teams I can think of. You're on top of the AFC North and Baltimore is coming to town. Just be careful, because they did just defeat your major rival. The good news for Cincinnati is that the margin of victory for their losses averages under 6 points, and they are number 5 in terms of margins for their victories, outscoring opponents by at least 14 points each time.

And the rest...

		22 (22)	Indianapolis +2
12 (14)	Buffalo	23 (18)	Detroit +4
13 (15)	Houston	24 (24)	Tampa Bay -2
14 (17)	Atlanta +2	25 (21)	Chicago +3
15 (12)	Washington	26 (26)	Miami -3
16 (16)	St. Louis +2	27 (31)	Dallas -2
17 (23)	Philadelphia -3	28 (25)	Jacksonville -2
18 (19)	New York Giants -1	29 (30)	San Diego
19 (13)	Oakland	30 (27)	Cleveland
20 (29)	San Francisco	31 (28)	Baltimore +1
21 (20)	New Orleans	32 (32)	Tennessee -1

Going for Two: Week Sixteen Conflicts

I just realized that this year's Super Bowl could be unwatchable for me, but the odds of Washington making it into the Divisional round are pretty slim. I will watch if my boyfriend's team goes back to San Francisco in the Super Bowl. I will watch that and savor every delicious moment of 49ers shame! That isn't too far fetched. If Denver loses tonight and heads to the number 6 seed, my calculation has Kansas City in the Conference championship.

Meanwhile, I'm watching the most anticipated game of the last couple months - ever since both teams were still undefeated - Bengals at Broncos, and I'm so conflicted. My calculation needs a Denver win to break even this week. On the other hand, I want Cincinnati to win and I think they are better than Denver, at this point at least. Cinci is my #2 team, of course, and their win tonight also ensures that Houston, and not Indianapolis, makes it to the playoffs.

The prettiest QB of them all.

But that's not the end of the conflict. Don't tell Alex, but I have a little bit of a crush on this Osweiler kid. I had a feeling that he could be the one to lead the Broncos to defeat the Patriots, and it was ordained by the Football Gods. But with a third loss on the horizon, Brock might get knocked out in favor of a healthier Peyton Manning. I find that utterly unfair, however. It's not his fault that the receivers can't run fast enough and can't manage to catch the super fastballs he throws. Okay, maybe it is, sort of, but I really hope they don't give up on Brock.

9 and a half left in the game, Cinci is down by 3 after another great run by C.J. Anderson. That touchdown run was made just as the TV commentators said that they weren't seeing much from C.J. tonight. Unless this is a tie, there is no outcome that won't satisfy and disappoint me tonight. 

Going for Two: Week Sixteen Breaking Even

I'm up $8,200 theoretical dollars based on my calculations and broke even for the first two games. I made all my picks, the games are getting closer and closer to the end, and some strange things are still happening. Atlanta is leading Carolina, Baltimore is ahead of Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis is up by 6 over Miami. The Texans are blowing out the Titans, but unfortunately, CBS is still playing that boring game. I can't imagine that Texans fans even care to see the end of that one.

And Carolina lost their perfect season, but who cares, J E T S, JETS JETS JETS! The Jets just cost me a theoretical $200, but I don't even care. When the Patriots lose, who wins? Fans of every single other NFL team. And congratulations to my boyfriend on clinching a playoff spot. I can almost stomach their winning the Super Bowl if it means rubbing SF's face in their decision to let Alex Smith go after he got concussed.

TOUCHDOWN JETS!

Going for Two: Week Sixteen and My Power Rankings

Merry Christmas and Let's Go Oakland!

Interesting things happen when you play with numbers. On Sunday, I discovered which teams had the easiest and hardest seasons- according to my calculations. Then on Monday, I decided to multiply that number by the difference between average points scored by the team and against the team. Maybe things aligned with my Playoff predictions because I’m using the same numbers to create all these calculations, or maybe they align because I know what I’m doing. The calculation predicts the following:

	Conference								Conference
N2	ARI								CIN	A2
				Super Bowl
		N2	ARI		ARI		NE	A1
N1	CAR								NE	A1

So I ranked the numbers - giving the hardest season a 1, and the easiest a 32, and the most average net points a 1 and the least a 32. The outcome of that was further from reality than I could abide, so I scrapped it. Instead, I averaged the season difficulty number and multiplied that by the average net points. That produced the same results, but with less outlandish final numbers, I guess.

So now that I’ve completed my Mid-Season Calculation, I’m ready to post MY Power Rankings going into Week 16, and have commentary for the first ten eleven teams. Update for Week 16 Power Rankings below, with my rank, then the NFL rank in parentheses.

1 (3)	New England	::vomits:: Okay, sorry about that, a reflex, I guess. New England's season is just above average in difficulty, and they net over 11 points per game. The loss to Denver was ordained by the Football Gods because of Brady’s face, and Philadelphia was a fluke. Barring more intervention from the Football Gods, New England is Super Bowl bound.
2 (2)	Arizona	I've got Arizona winning the Super Bowl, but this week, they are only number two. They average more net points per game, but their season is just below average difficulty, and their most difficult opponents appear in Weeks 16 and 17: Green Bay and Seattle. If Arizona can produce in the next two weeks like they have in the last 8, they will win the Super Bowl.
3 (6)	Green Bay	Surprising here, based on the way they've been playing, and no, I do not rig these things: Green Bay has clawed its way to third place. Their net points are in the “good” range, but half that of Arizona or New England. It is only be by virtue of having the most difficult of all schedules this year (and winning 10 of their 14 games) that they rank so high. Unfortunately for them and me, they will get their asses handed to them by Arizona.... twice. Then again, if they can win in week 16, anything is possible.
4 (1)	Carolina	That’s right, the undefeated Panthers are just number 4 here because my numbers aren’t deluded by the undefeated season. It’s easy to be undefeated, frankly, when your division rivals are Tampa Bay and New Orleans and the AFC Division on your schedule happens to be the second worst Division in the league. They have the second easiest schedule in the league this year, but they have won by an average of 12 points every week, so they certainly aren't bad.
5 (4)	Seattle	In the last five games, Seattle has netted an average of 20 points per game, 25 in the last three games. Early losses notwithstanding, Seattle could make it back to the Conference Championship, if not the Super Bowl. Certainly if they can come out of Arizona in Week 17 as the victors. .
6 (5)	Pittsburgh	This team may not have fallen as far as Seattle this year, but it hasn't been the greatest season for Pittsburgh either. They have always been a threat, even without Big Ben, and recent defeats of Cincinnati and Denver, they’re finishing strong. Their last two opponents are the weaker division rivals, and they’re well poised to clinch that Wild Card spot.
7 (9)	Denver	A two game losing-streak and a major opponent coming to town. Is it time to bring back Peyton? Eh, probably not. They still have the best defense in the world and are projected to defeat Cincinnati.
8 (8)	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh was tough, but the toughest opponent you’ll face until the playoffs is this week. It seems like AJ McCarron could defeat Denver, if their warm-up against San Francisco can be trusted. With Baltimore schlepping into town during week 17, Cinci doesn’t really need the bye, but it would be nice.
9 (7)	Kansas City	San Francisco dumped him, and I’m somewhat uncomfortable with his new team, but Alex Smith is my boyfriend for a reason. They are playing Cleveland and Oakland for the last two weeks, and if Denver falters even once in that time, an AFC Playoff game will go through Kansas City.
10 (10)	New York Jets	After leaving Houston, it looks like the Buffalo Rider found a good home in New York with the Jets. He’s got a good receiver core and decent team that will end up with a record that should send the Jets to the playoffs. Should send them, that is, but won’t because, irony, the 9&7 Texans will go as AFC South Champions.
11 (11)	Minnesota	Minestrone is back down to number 11 with the updated ranks, but originally, I didn't write anything about them. Um, Adrian Peterson, other players that are good. They win games, just barely. They had an average net point value of 0.5 at this point.

Teams 12-32

		22 (19)	Tampa Bay
12 (15)	Buffalo	23 (25)	Miami
13 (16)	Houston	24 (26)	Indianapolis
14 (17)	Philadelphia	25 (30)	Dallas
15 (12)	Washington	26 (24)	Jacksonville
16 (20)	Atlanta	27 (21)	Detroit
17 (14)	New York GIants	28 (23)	Chicago
18 (18)	St. Louis	29 (29)	San Diego
19 (13)	Oakland	30 (27)	Cleveland
20 (28)	San Francisco	31 (32)	Tennessee
21 (22)	New Orleans	32 (31)	Baltimore

Going for Two: Week Fifteen Wrap Up

Again, the worst my Mid-Season calculation can do is the best any metric has done this year. At best, it will tie the Wins & Home calculation for Week 14 in 2013 and my Gut* prediction for 2013.. For a little while, it looked like I was headed there, but the Lions are up by 15 points half-way through the 4th quarter, so Mid-Season is at 88%. Here are the times when any metrics reached that mark or higher in the past 4 years.

2012 Week 2: Home Field Advantage 88% Week 11: Football Locks 93% Week 17: Wins & Home 88%

2013 Week 8: Wins 92% Week 8: Wins & Home 92% Week 14: Football Locks 88% Week 14: Early Calculation 88% Week 14: Home Field Advantage 88% Week 14: Wins 88% Week 14: Wins & Home 94% Week 15: Gut 94%*

2014 (none)

2015 (none)

*These picks were made during 2014, with the knowledge of the season outcome for many teams, but without knowing the actual outcomes of any regular-season games. 

The Saints could have actually won this game, with 6 seconds left, but somehow, the receivers cannot catch a ball to save their lives. And with that, Week 15 comes to a close

Going for Two: Week Fifteen Clairvoyance

Tonight, Arizona will win the game. They're up by 23 points with 2:33 left to go, and just got an interception, so anyone could see that now. Not to mention that predicting this win wasn't a very risky call, but that's not what makes this a stellar week. What makes this week stand out is that, at this point, the worst my reviewed, perfected Mid-Season calculation can do is still better than any of the metrics I track have done all year. The only game predicted incorrectly was Buffalo. It did have St. Louis, Atlanta, Houston, and San Diego.

Tomorrow, it has New Orleans.

I've also calculated the difficulty of each team's season, and ranked from most difficult to easiest, Packers winning the Super Bowl isn't that hard to see. Carolina's victory, on the other hand, seems a lot less likely.

1	GB	5	SF	9	OAK	13	ATL	17	DET	21	BAL	25	WAS	29	TB
2	NYG	6	DEN	10	MIN	14	BUF	18	CHI	22	NO	26	CIN	30	JAX
3	CLE	7	SD	11	PIT	15	PHI	19	ARI	23	TEN	27	NYJ	31	CAR
4	STL	8	SEA	12	DAL	16	NE	20	KC	24	IND	28	HOU	32	MIA