| I was at home in Wisconsin, where it was *so cold* or *خیلی سرد* (kheli sard), in Persian, for Christmas. A foot of snow on the ground, freezing rain, and on Monday, the wind. Holy Jesus, the wind on Monday. But about Football, what can I say? The Packers won, thank goodness, my Gut picks did well, but overall, I'm going to finish the season with a calculation that barely does above 60%. Also, sorry, Mom, but Cincinnati cannot win in Prime Time or against the Texans. It's just the way it is. |
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Sunday, December 25, 2016
The Running Game: Week Sixteen Better Late than Never
Sunday, December 18, 2016
The Running Game: Week Fifteen Picks
So far this week, things are looking significantly better for my calculations, but the benchmarks are holding too. Here are my picks:
| Calc | Bench | Thoughts & Gut pick (2015-16 Calc pick success rate vs. Underdog upset rate) | Winner | |
| LA at SEA | SEA | SEA | Who did the Seahawks even play? The Rams? Oh jeez. SEA (58% vs. 45%) | SEA |
| MIA at NYJ | MIA | MIA | It'll be close, but the 'phins have this in the bag. MIA (46% vs. 43%) | MIA |
| PIT at CIN | PIT | PIT | Sorry, mom, but Cinci needs serious rebuilding. PIT (62% vs. 12%) | PIT |
| DET at NYG | NYG | Split | I'm going to hedge, goddamn Giants. DET (80% vs. 63%) | NYG |
| PHI at BAL | PHI | BAL | My calculation thinks to highly of Philly. BAL (59% vs. 36%) | BAL |
| GB at CHI | GB | GB | The Packers really need this one. GB (60% vs. 26%) | GB |
| IND at MIN | MIN | MIN | Minnesota is also overrated, so I will hedge. IND (67% vs. 39%) | IND |
| CLE at BUF | BUF | BUF | Cleveland can't catch a break. BUF (37% vs. 8%) | BUF |
| TEN at KC | KC | KC | My boyfriend and his team have this one sealed. KC (85% vs. 28%) | TEN |
| JAX at HOU | HOU | HOU | Jacksonville? Please, don't make me laugh. HOU (100% vs. 18%) | HOU |
| NO at ARI | ARI | ARI | New Orleans has a decent upset rate, so I hedge. NO (60% vs. 44%) | ... |
| SF at ATL | ATL | ATL | Oh, 49ers, you won't catch a break this week. ATL (46% vs. 23%) | ... |
| NE at DEN | NE | NE | I considered a hedge, but then stayed with NE (84% vs. 50%) | ... |
| OAK at SD | OAK | OAK | I'm staying with OAK (74% vs. 40%) | ... |
| TB at DAL | DAL | DAL | A TB win is possible, but not enough for a hedge. DAL (77% vs. 31%) | ... |
| CAR at WAS | WAS | WAS | Carolina's upset rate is inflated from last year, WAS (61% vs. 69%) | ... |
I'm really just waiting for the Tampa Bay at Dallas game tonight. If TB can win that one, my calculations have them making the playoffs as the fifth seed and Dallas would stay as the first seed. I predict either that either Dallas will blow the Bucs out of the water, or it will be a nail-biter. The latter makes for a more interesting game, certainly.
The Running Game: Week Fifteen Packers in the Super Bowl?!?
| And just like that, with Minestone and Detroit losing, my calculation not only has the Packers winning the NFC North, but sweeping through the playoffs to the Super Bowl, only to lose to New England. Honestly, after their performance mid-season, not to mention letting today's game against the freaking Bears get down to the wire, I don't know how to feel about this. |
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| Except for the "Complete opposite" bracket, all of these let the calculation pick the Super Bowl winner. |
PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL!!!
Huzzah! Come on, A-a-ron and McCartney! WE CAN DO THIS!
Saturday, December 17, 2016
The Running Game: Week Fifteen Just Endure The Suffering
Another Prime Time game, another embarrassment for the Jets. It was mid-way through the 3rd quarter when Miami went up by 24 freaking points, and now we just have to watch any of the hopes for the Jets die, slowly. Then, around the change of the quarter, Petty took a bad hit, and who came back but Grizzly Adams. Ugh. We're at the 2-minute warning now. Soon, it will all be over. |
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Sunday, December 11, 2016
The Running Game: Week Fourteen Superb Owl Predictions
Well, with most of Week 14 in the books, Dallas being ahead in the middle of the 3rd, and New England playing Baltimore tomorrow, here are the new predictions for the post season.
But before you get too worried about having to see pretty-boy-Brady holding the Lombardi trophy again, remember that, while I was 100% for the Wild Card and Divisional rounds last year, I was dead wrong after that. Remember how I thought it would be Arizona and New England? Then how I figured that Carolina would beat Denver? Yeah, that didn't happen, so let's see how things shake out with that in mind...
I input Minnesota and Kansas City and let the calculation pick the winner. So, congratulations, Minestrone. I guess you won't choke after all.
| Wild Card | Wild Card | |||||||||||||||||
| N6 | MIN | Divisional | Divisional | BUF | A6 | |||||||||||||
| N4 | ATL | Conference | Conference | OAK | A5 | |||||||||||||
| N3 | DET | N6 | MIN | NE | A1 | PIT | A3 | |||||||||||
| N1 | DAL | NFC | Super Bowl | AFC | NE | A1 | ||||||||||||
| N1 | DAL | NE | NE | A1 | ||||||||||||||
| N2 | SEA | Champions | KC | A2 | ||||||||||||||
| N5 | WAS | N1 | DAL | KC | A2 | OAK | A5 | |||||||||||
| N6 | MIN | PIT | A3 | |||||||||||||||
| N4 | ATL | HOU | A4 | |||||||||||||||
But before you get too worried about having to see pretty-boy-Brady holding the Lombardi trophy again, remember that, while I was 100% for the Wild Card and Divisional rounds last year, I was dead wrong after that. Remember how I thought it would be Arizona and New England? Then how I figured that Carolina would beat Denver? Yeah, that didn't happen, so let's see how things shake out with that in mind...
| Conference | Conference | |||||||||
| N6 | MIN | NE | A1 | |||||||
| NFC | Super Bowl | AFC | ||||||||
| N6 | MIN | KC | KC | A2 | ||||||
| Champions | ||||||||||
| N1 | DAL | KC | A2 | |||||||
I input Minnesota and Kansas City and let the calculation pick the winner. So, congratulations, Minestrone. I guess you won't choke after all.
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