The Running Game: Week Twelve Back Again

I try to post every week, but what can I say about last weekend? Oops? It was a two-day weekend, with a Persian lesson and preparation (even if only mental) for Thanksgiving. Oh yeah, and I was busy updating my "All Years All Teams" workbook, which drives my historical calculations, which included adding the current Games sheet to all workbooks back to 2012, then copying that to... oh, it was a lot of work, but I'm finally done. This means that I can see the year-to-date accuracy of my calculation for each team and see each team's "upset" rate. Here, Upset means "going against my calculation", not the Vegas line.

So far this week, there seems to be a trend...

It's not 100% perfect, but all of the teams with an Upset ratio of 20% or more ended up winning. Well, except Washington, but they did beat the spread.

The interesting thing is that, according to the teevee, Atlanta beating Arizona and Baltimore's win were notable. They also mentioned the wins by the Giants and the Dolphins. However, looking at my picks and the upset ratios for their opponents, those outcomes weren't really in doubt.

It really spells bad news for the Packers tomorrow night. Really bad news, because their upset ratio is 0%, but even if my calculation had picked them, Philly's upset ratio is 25%. I fear that the Green & Gold are DOA tomorrow night, but I can always hope, right? right?

The Running Game: Week Ten You Win Some You Lose Some

Or, in the case of one of my benchmarks, all but, at most, four (maybe five, if they also picked Baltimore) of your picks lose after having 77% accuracy last week. The Packers also lost, but that was no surprise. Painful, but not surprising. Apparently, now Clay Matthews is injured, which is really hurting them, just like the loss of Jordy Nelson hurt them last year. My thought is that, you know, if your whole team falls apart because one good non-quarterback player is out, maybe your team isn't that great. The Texans lost JJ friggen' 'Watt and they can still win games. Sigh... Packers...

I really do need more garbage bags.

What is up with those lines up there? ^^ What the hell?

	Calc	Bench	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
CLE at BAL	BAL	BAL	It was easy to go with BAL	BAL
HOU at JAX	HOU	Split	The Home team is abysmal, don't make me regret this, HOU	HOU
KC at CAR	KC	Split	Can my boyfriend, back from IR, and his team win? I'm hedging, CAR	KC
DEN at NO	DEN	Split	The odds are giving me pause, so I will hedge with NO	DEN
LA at NYJ	NYJ	Split	Can Grizzly Adams do it? I'm dubious, LA	LA
ATL at PHI	ATL	ATL	Matty Ice is on fire, but I am going to hedge with PHI	PHI
MIN at WAS	MIN	Split	Can Minestrone get over their post-bye slump? No, WAS	WAS
GB at TEN	TEN	GB	Oh, Packers, please, please, please, please	TEN
CHI at TB	TB	Split	Cutler's back, but that's a mixed bag too, oh well, CHI	TB
MIA at SD	SD	SD	I can't see Miami winning this game, SD	MIA
SF at ARI	ARI	ARI	Enormous spread here, and I don't see it any other way, ARI	ARI
DAL at PIT	DAL	Split	Considering hedging, but after last week's implosion, DAL	DAL
SEA at NE	NE	NE	Seattle needs a running game again, so I have to go with NE	...
CIN at NYG	NYG	Split	Cinci needs the win, but by the stats, I gotta go with NYG	...

The Running Game: Week Nine Stranger Things

The way the numbers work out for the rest of the season, the Packers do as well as the 2015 NFC Champions, which isn't very good for either of them, at all. Despite the victory last night, Oakland loses their Division and the Wild Card to Kansas City and Denver, respectively, and neither of the number 1 seeds for either conference make it to the Superb Owl.

Wild Card

Wild Card

N6

SEA

Divisional

Divisional

DEN

A6

N5

PHI

Conference

Conference

BUF

A5

N3

ATL

N5

PHI

KC

A2

HOU

A3

N1

DAL

NFC

Super Bowl

AFC

NE

A1

N5

PHI

KC

KC

A2

N2

MIN

Champions

KC

A2

N5

PHI

N2

MIN

NE

A1

BUF

A5

N3

ATL

HOU

A3

N4

ARI

PIT

A4

And news is that my boyfriend will be back next week, while his team won for him while he was out.