The Running Game: Week Eight No More Ties, Please

I was out at Houston's Renaissance Faire yesterday, and after I helped ward off the evil spirits during the upcoming dark months by dancing around the bonfire, we got back to the city after 1am, and I didn't get to bed until 3am. So, natch, I slept through the early early game, and even through kickoff for the early games. I showered before bed, mainly to get the bug spray out of my hair, so when I got up at about noon thirty, I very groggily put on clothing and went out the door to get some food. The Texans game was on, and they were doing well, thank goodness. They even went on to win, and that gave me opportunity to joke with a couple in Lions jerseys when they game into my regular eatery as I left: "Only winners, please'". I also chatted with a couple of guys in Lions jerseys, later in the day, after opening with the same line.

What is this bright stuff?

I did pretty well this week too, but I didn't predict the big upsets. 

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
JAX at TEN	TEN	TEN	I have to go with most of my calculations and the benchmarks TEN	TEN
WAS at CIN	CIN	Split	Bengals, all the way, CIN	tie
DET at HOU	HOU	Split	ALL of my calculations have this one the same, HOU	HOU
SEA at NO	SEA	SEA	NO? Yeah, no. SEA	NO
NE at BUF	NE	NE	Buffalo shut 'em out before, but it is a different game today, NE	NE
NYJ at CLE	NYJ	NYJ	No thought involved here, NYJ	NYJ
OAK at TB	OAK	Split	One of the benchmarks has these teams evenly rated, so OAK	OAK
KC at IND	KC	KC	My boyfriend's got this, KC	KC
GB at ATL	GB	Split	PAAAACCC (well, Atlanta is doing really well lately) KKKKERRSS!!!!!	ATL
SD at DEN	DEN	DEN	On the coast vs. a mile in the sky? DEN	DEN
ARI at CAR	ARI	Split	Benchmarks are split, calcs are saying ARI, but at home... CAR	CAR
PHI at DAL	DAL	DAL	Star Rookie vs. Star Rookie, emotional win for Philly, calc alignment PHI	...
MIN at CHI	MIN	MIN	The Bears still suck! MIN	...

The good news about the early early game is now all my win totals are whole numbers again, thank goodness.

The Running Game: Week Seven Introducing The Power Calculation

This week, I combined the Home and Away Advantage, Historical, and the Official calculations together to make, what I am dubbing, "The Power Calculation". It's one game behind the better Historical calculation, which is to be expected at this point. Due to an error entering a formula to count the wins, I was briefly thinking that I had made a calculation with a 70% accuracy last year, and 74% so far this year, but correcting that brought me down to earth.

It still did predict San Francisco's defeat of Minnesota in last year's Week One second Monday Night game, which seemed to surprise everyone else. But the 81% it got in Week One was more or less negated by a 38% showing in Week Two. This year, the showing is a bit better, with a total 69% accuracy for all 104 games already completed.

My Gut picks are doing very well this week too, so without further ado:

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
CHI at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!!	GB
NYG at LA	NYG	Split	The Rams could win, but their jet lag will be worse... NYG	NYG
NO at KC	KC	KC	My boyfriend will get this one done, KC	KC
IND at TEN	TEN	TEN	My other calculations say Colts, so I'm going for IND	IND
MIN at PHI	MIN	MIN	Philly could win this, but I gotta go with MIN	PHI
CLE at CIN	CIN	CIN	I had an inkling of a doubt at first, but it was an easy pick for CIN	CIN
WAS at DET	WAS	WAS	The Benchmarks were split before, but the new calcs all say DET	DET
OAK at JAX	OAK	Split	All the calculations pointed right at OAK	OAK
BUF at MIA	BUF	BUF	Miami? Seriously? No, BUF	MIA
BAL at NYJ	BAL	Split	The upset potential here is good, NYJ	NYJ
TB at SF	TB	Split	I think the 49ers can win this one, at home, SF	...
SD at ATL	ATL	ATL	Gotta go with Matty Ice and our boy, Julio on this one, ATL	...
NE at PIT	NE	NE	If they had Big Ben, I would have hedged my pick, but I gotta go with NE	...
SEA at ARI	SEA	Split	I'm splitting my pick here, ARI	...
HOU at DEN	DEN	DEN	Sorry, baby, but I can't see it working for you... DEN	...

PS: The Power Calculation matches my Gut Picks this week, except for NE at PIT, which gave me pause until I remembered that Big factor.

The Running Game: Week Six Disappointments and Curses

Coming off a week where the AFC and NFC Champions were defeated by Divisional rivals that are rarely, if ever, contenders, I can't finish this sentence in a satisfactory way. Favre returned to Lambeau again, and the Packers lost in Lambeau again, but that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot are no Chicago Bears. They were wearing those godawful throw-back uniforms ::vomit::. Maybe Favre's curse had an effect on Prescott. No, really, Favre, you're great, we love you, but please, stay home.

I'm sitting here, watching Osweiler break my heart, and break everyone's heart in Houston. Well, not right now because the Texans' defense is on the field. I liked the table I shared last week, so I made the same one for this season.

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
DEN at SD	DEN	DEN	San Diego isn't necessarily as bad as their record says, but still, DEN	SD
SF at BUF	BUF	BUF	Kaepernick is back, but who knows how good he is. BUF	BUF
PHI at WAS	WAS	PHI	Calculation says WAS, but the Benchmarks and my gut say PHI	WAS
CLE at TEN	TEN	TEN	This may be the best shot for a Browns win, but Murray & Mariota TEN	TEN
BAL at NYG	NYG	Split	I haven't yet given up on them BAL	NYG
CAR at NO	CAR	CAR	Things are not going well this year for my boy, NO	NO
JAX at CHI	JAX	Split	This is a tough one, but in the end, I'm sticking with JAX	JAX
LA at DET	LA	Split	Another one I can't explain, just a feeling about DET	DET
PIT at MIA	PIT	PIT	I honestly don't see Miami winning this game, barring the worst for PIT	MIA
CIN at NE	NE	NE	I really, really want the Bengals to win, but NE	NE
KC at OAK	OAK	OAK	I see some upset potential here KC	KC
ATL at SEA	SEA	SEA	We all know about Seattle, but I got a feeling ATL	SEA
DAL at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!! But oh man, that Prescott, Idk, eff it, GO PACK GO!!!!	DAL
IND at HOU	HOU	HOU	This is another tough one, and it may be wishful thinking, HOU	...
NYJ at ARI	ARI	ARI	Grizzly Adams has been slipping, and Stanton & Fitzgerald ARI	...

The fonts look messed up, and I can't stand to hear the banter about overpaying Osweiler right now. 2:28 to go, and Luck goes down. Hope springs eternal.

The Running Game: Week Five More Than a Feeling

So Week 5 and Brady is back. Right away, they began to slay the Cleveland Browns. A friend sent me a text saying that he must be angry. Well, I can't blame him. I mean, the only thing that is his fault is not cooperating with the deflategate investigation by not turning over his phone records, but I understand why. He was texting smack talk about other players, which is his right, but no one wants that kind of thing made public.

Angry Brady's "icy stare of death" courtesy of CBS Sports.

In other words, the suspension was for a bullshit reason, and it isn't his fault that his first game back is against the local pee-wee team. Let's see how he fares against... well, I'm not really sure that there is a team truly on par with the Patriots right now. Pittsburgh? Green Bay in Lambeau? Don't get me wrong, I still hate them, but they're damn good. There is no denying that.

The other big story this week is my picks. Once again, my calculation's picks were identical to those of my benchmarks, and I'm not sure what to make of it. Knowing the success rate of those metrics, I made some upset predictions in my Gut picks and am a little taken aback:

	Calc	Benchmarks	Thoughts and Gut pick	Winner
ARI at SF	ARI	ARI	Palmer is out, but Stanton is decent and Larry Fitzgerald. ARI	ARI
NE at CLE	NE	NE	AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA NE	NE
PHI at DET	PHI	PHI	Last week must have stung Detroit, and Philly isn't 4-0 good. DET	DET
CHI at IND	IND	IND	Personally, I think Luck is overrated, but Chicago is Chicago. IND	IND
TEN at MIA	MIA	Split	Miami is not very good, and the Titans have Murray now. TEN	TEN
WAS at BAL	BAL	BAL	I just don't think Baltimore can win this one. WAS	WAS
HOU at MIN	MIN	MIN	Oh, Osweiler, how I love you, but I'm so sorry. MIN	MIN
NYJ at PIT	PIT	PIT	Jets? Yeah, no. PIT	PIT
ATL at DEN	DEN	DEN	Siemian is out, and Matty Ice is on fire. ATL	ATL
CIN at DAL	CIN	Split	Dak Prescott is the new Tom Brady, only more likeable. DAL	DAL
BUF at LA	LA	Split	Buffalo shut out New England, and the benchmarks are split. BUF	BUF
SD at OAK	OAK	OAK	LET'S GO OAK-LAND! OAK	OAK
NYG at GB	GB	GB	PACKERS!!!!	...

What?