The Running Game: Week Two Starts Promising

I added a few new pieces to my picks during the offseason, including an assessment that took into account the accuracy of my own picks. Unfortunately, I don't quite remember how it works, but the one that reflected the performance in 2014 and 2015 tied with the NFL Power Ranks for the best picks last week. Actually, last week, the best predictor was my Ideal picks. 12 games went the way that I would have really preferred them to go, while my official and modified calculations and gut picks only got 10.

Well, this week, so far, my Gut picks are doing pretty well and the Texans won. Other than that, I don't have much to blog about today. Maybe the heat is getting to me. It is 93 degrees F, but it feels like 106.

Here is how I will display my picks now, which shows about half of the predictors that I track.

Official Calculation	Upset Probable	Gut	Modified Calculation	Historical 2015	Historical 2014-15	Historical 2013-15		Benchmark	NFL Power Rankings
BUF	Yes	NYJ	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF		NYJ	NYJ
CAR	No	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR		CAR	CAR
WAS	No	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	DAL		WAS	WAS
PIT	No	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT		PIT	PIT
NYG	No	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG		NYG	NYG
NE	No	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE		NE	NE
KC	No	HOU	KC	KC	HOU	KC		HOU	KC
DET	No	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET		DET	TEN
BAL	No	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL		BAL	BAL
SEA	No	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA		SEA	SEA
ARI	No	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI		ARI	ARI
JAX	No	JAX	JAX	JAX	SD	SD		SD	JAX
OAK	No	OAK	OAK	OAK	OAK	OAK		OAK	OAK
DEN	No	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN		DEN	DEN
MIN	No	GB	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN		GB	GB
PHI	No	CHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI		CHI	PHI

A couple notes:

• In the color coding, light colored cells show where a predictor differs from the Official Calculation.
• The Upset Probable column reviews how many times the predicted team has proved my calculation right by winning against how many times the other team has proved it wrong by winning. This number isn't factored into a calculation yet. It only influences my Gut Picks.
• With extreme, rare exceptions (which previously, usually involved Seattle), I will always, always put Green Bay as my Gut Pick. 
• The Modified Calculation takes into account the rate of teams winning at home or on the road.
• Like I said, I can't remember how the Historical Calculations work at all. 

Oh, yeah, and after last week, Minnesota was going to win the Super Bowl. Both times I said that last week, I could not keep a straight face.