The Running Game: Week Four Picks

It dawns on me that I should have posted this yesterday, but whatever, sorry. You should rest assured that the first pick was the same before the game started. I wonder if there was anyone outside the Miami Dolphins organization that really thought that they could defeat Dalton and the Bengals. Maybe even some of them thought that way. I wonder if the stigma that follows some teams around, like the Titans, all the Florida teams, and the Browns, doesn't become a self-fulfilling prophesy, dooming even the most cohesive, talented groups of guys to losing seasons.

63%		71%	65%	56%	58%	71%	65%	.	58%	63%
Calculations					Home & Away Advantage				Benchmarks
Official	Upset Probable	2 Years	3 Years	Gut	2015	2014-15	2013-15		Football Locks	NFLPower Rankings
CIN	No	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN		CIN	CIN
IND	No	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND		IND	IND
HOU	No	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU		HOU	HOU
WAS	No	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS		WAS	WAS
SEA	No	SEA	SEA	NYJ	SEA	SEA	SEA		SEA	SEA
NE	Yes	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE		NE	NE
CAR	No	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR		CAR	CAR
OAK	No	BAL	BAL	BAL	OAK	BAL	BAL		BAL	BAL
DET	No	DET	CHI	DET	DET	DET	DET		DET	DET
DEN	Yes	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN		DEN	DEN
ARI	No	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI		ARI	ARI
SD	No	NO	NO	NO	SD	SD	SD		SD	SD
DAL	No	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL		DAL	DAL
PIT	No	KC	KC	KC	PIT	PIT	PIT		PIT	PIT
MIN	No	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN		MIN	MIN

Given the close alignment between all of the published picks, it's your responsibility to remember who the opponent is for most of the games. From my experience, that is easier said than done.

The Running Game: Week Three NFC South Showdown

In honor of tonight's game, allow me to share this little gem from the Cooper Manning Hour (minus 58 minutes).

I don't trust a guy with two first names. That's coming from a guy with two last names.

The NFC South may be the weakest division in the NFC, but they certainly do not disappoint on the field. Tonight's high-scoring game is no exception. 1st and 10, completion, completion, good run, completion, 2nd and goal, touchdown. Kickoff, good run, completion, completion, completion, another 1st down in the red zone, completion, 1st and goal, TOUCHDOWN! Kickoff, good run, 1st down, completion, completion, good run, completion, INTERCEPTION FOR A TOUCHDOWN!

45 to 32 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Damn good game in New Orleans tonight.

The Running Game: Week Three Suspended Due to Weather

I need three Cali teams to lose today - everyone but Oakland. San Francisco was helpful, the Colts defeated the Bolts (I may or may not love TY Hilton), but Los Angeles is up by five at the two minute warning. That was about 10, 15, 30 minutes ago, and it is still the same now. Why?

Due to weather, the game will be temporarily suspended? Football isn't suspended for weather! The game is in Tampa, so is there a hurricane? I guess really heavy rain would be a problem. Talk about a momentum killer. I need the Bucs to overcome this 5 point deficit, but I first noticed that something was up before 6:30, and it is quarter after 7 now.

I looked up Tampa weather, and there is an advisory that includes the phrases, "Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Tampa... moving slowly west at 5 mph." and "Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm". And NFL.com is saying that it is suspended due to lightening.

The Running Game: Week Three Calculation Updates

Today, I looked into my new calculations, based on stats from previous years, and learned that I not only needed to change the colors for them, but that, with two tweaks, I could make a calculation that appears to be ridiculously good - at least for Week 1.

Don't believe me? Here are the Week 1 results:

	Calculations					Home and Away Advantage				Benchmarks
Actual Winner	Official	Upset Probable	3 Years	2 Years	Gut	2015	2014-15	2013-15		Football Locks	NFLPower Rankings
DEN	CAR	No	DEN	DEN	CAR	CAR	DEN	DEN		CAR	CAR
TB	ATL	No	TB	TB	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL		ATL	TB
MIN	MIN	No	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN		MIN	MIN
PHI	PHI	No	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI		PHI	PHI
CIN	CIN	No	CIN	CIN	NYJ	CIN	CIN	CIN		CIN	CIN
OAK	OAK	Yes	NO	NO	OAK	OAK	OAK	NO		NO	OAK
KC	KC	No	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC		KC	KC
BAL	BUF	No	BAL	BAL	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF		BAL	BUF
HOU	HOU	No	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU		HOU	HOU
GB	GB	Yes	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB		GB	GB
SEA	SEA	No	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA		SEA	SEA
NYG	NYG	No	DAL	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG		DAL	DAL
DET	IND	No	DET	DET	IND	IND	IND	IND		IND	DET
NE	ARI	No	NE	NE	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI		ARI	ARI
PIT	PIT	No	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT		PIT	PIT
SF	LA	Yes	SF	SF	SF	LA	LA	LA		LA	LA

Notice anything? Yeah, me too. The "2 Years Calculation" only got one game wrong during Week One. The Week Two numbers are not nearly as impressive, but overall, it is 79% accurate, so far. As for what is going on, the 3 Years and 2 Years calculations both factor in the general accuracy of my calculation during the last three years (2013-2015) and two years (2014-2015), respectively. I originally called the 3 Years one the "Modified Calculation".

The calculations previously called "Historical" were actually based on the win rate for home and away teams, so the names and colors were swapped to match the color themes for like predictors (orange, yellows, and browns for anything related to home or away team and blues and purples for calculations). And since the two year calculation for the Home and Away Advantage (H&AA) calculations was the most successful so far, I made the "2 Years" calculation to pull from that data. I changed a modifier for the upset percentage - using the same value that is used in the H&AA calculations - first, then sat back and waited for the spreadsheet to process.

When it was all done (I have a lot of dependent calculations and conditional formatting, and it gives my poor Chromebook a run for its money), I couldn't believe my eyes. Time will tell if this is an anomaly, or if I stumbled across something truly great.