Friday, February 26, 2016

The Running Game: Earliest of Predictions

After the Super Bowl from last season, and before Free Agency for this season, I can still run a few numbers to predict next season's possible outcomes. The NFL released next year's opponents right after the regular season ended, which allows me to apply two different versions of preliminary Season Open Points (SO Points) to each team's season to predict which will be the hardest and easiest.

I ran the numbers with the original calculation, and then with a modification based on the calculation I created in the middle of last season. In both cases, the Atlanta Falcons will have the most difficult schedule of 2016. They play Denver, Carolina twice, Arizona, Seattle, Green Bay, and Kansas City.

That's 7 games against teams that not only made it to the playoffs, but won at least one of their playoff games. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones better make sure that if they are going to hang out down by the schoolyard, they are at least doing some practicing.

We shouldn't be surprised to see Carolina have a more down-to-earth season in 2016 either. They have the 14th most difficult schedule with either calculation.
Opponent Divisions
DivisionAFCNFCDifficulty
AFC East (6)North (3)West (7)16
AFC North (3)East (6)East (2)11
AFC South (1)West (8)North (4)13
AFC West (8)South (1)South (5)14
NFC East (2)North (3)North (4)9
NFC North (4)South (1)East (2)7
NFC South (5)West (8)West (7)20
NFC West (7)East (6)South (5)18
This shows the ranking of each division based on the current SO Points (higher (numbers) indicate higher SO Points) and which other Divisions they will face to create a crude season difficulty metric for those teams. 


The team with the easiest schedule of 2016 is my own Green Bay Packers. As you can see from the table, the NFC North plays the garbage divisions of 2015, and they weren't that great either, despite sending two teams to the playoffs. The only team that the Packers play that won a playoff game last season is the Seahawks, and compared to the rest of Seattle's schedule, the Packers are a cake walk.

Still, I guess it's a good year for the Packers to achieve that 16 & 0 mark, if the Vikings don't end up doing that. Unfortunately, for Minnesota, their winning the division in 2015 means that they play Arizona and Carolina, and the Packers play the possibly easier-to-beat Falcons and previously mentioned Seahawks.

Regardless, Minnesota is likely to have a great year, as is Detroit, especially if Megatron stays in the game. Detroit is due a great season after the giant pile of crap handed to them last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three teams make the 2016 playoff picture. Chicago, to round out the division, might go 8 & 8.

The NFC East is likely to be a little better, depending on how the Eagles and Giants fare with new coaches, how Dallas does with a healthy Tony Romo, and if Washington keeps Cousins. The NFC South is probably going to go back to Garbage Division status in 2016, all depending on how much those teams - all of those teams - can improve in the off-season. Carolina has Newton and Olson, but they're going to need a few more play-makers to look nearly as good. The NFC West is going to be split between Super Bowl contenders Arizona and Seattle and Chip Kelly's 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams, neither of which I expect to do well next year.

The AFC South is not likely to be any better in 2016 than they were in 2015. If the Texans get a quarterback (how about Kirk Cousins? We would all really like that), they might get back to the playoffs.

Indianapolis will probably have a healthy Andrew Luck and that will probably dash the Texans' hopes. Tennessee and Jacksonville will also play games in 2016, but will probably lose most of them.

The AFC West is going to be the division to beat, though I don't have as much hope for the Chargers as I do for the three other teams. They have a relatively easy season, and Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland looked good in 2015. I'm torn about which between the AFC East and AFC North will be the better division. I do have doubts that New England will be able to hang on to their lead in the AFC East. Cincinnati will win their first playoff game in ages, and might go all the way to Super Bowl LI, where they will lose to the still awesome Arizona Cardinals.

And there you have it. The Ancient Oracle of Football has spoken. So it shall be written, so it shall be done!

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