The Running Game: Earliest of Predictions

After the Super Bowl from last season, and before Free Agency for this season, I can still run a few numbers to predict next season's possible outcomes. The NFL released next year's opponents right after the regular season ended, which allows me to apply two different versions of preliminary Season Open Points (SO Points) to each team's season to predict which will be the hardest and easiest.

I ran the numbers with the original calculation, and then with a modification based on the calculation I created in the middle of last season. In both cases, the Atlanta Falcons will have the most difficult schedule of 2016. They play Denver, Carolina twice, Arizona, Seattle, Green Bay, and Kansas City. That's 7 games against teams that not only made it to the playoffs, but won at least one of their playoff games. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones better make sure that if they are going to hang out down by the schoolyard, they are at least doing some practicing. We shouldn't be surprised to see Carolina have a more down-to-earth season in 2016 either. They have the 14th most difficult schedule with either calculation.

Opponent Divisions Division AFC NFC Difficulty AFC East (6) North (3) West (7) 16 AFC North (3) East (6) East (2) 11 AFC South (1) West (8) North (4) 13 AFC West (8) South (1) South (5) 14 NFC East (2) North (3) North (4) 9 NFC North (4) South (1) East (2) 7 NFC South (5) West (8) West (7) 20 NFC West (7) East (6) South (5) 18 Opponent Divisions Division AFC NFC Difficulty AFC East (6) North (3) West (7) 16 AFC North (3) East (6) East (2) 11 AFC South (1) West (8) North (4) 13 AFC West (8) South (1) South (5) 14 NFC East (2) North (3) North (4) 9 NFC North (4) South (1) East (2) 7 NFC South (5) West (8) West (7) 20 NFC West (7) East (6) South (5) 18 This shows the ranking of each division based on the current SO Points (higher (numbers) indicate higher SO Points) and which other Divisions they will face to create a crude season difficulty metric for those teams.

The team with the easiest schedule of 2016 is my own Green Bay Packers. As you can see from the table, the NFC North plays the garbage divisions of 2015, and they weren't that great either, despite sending two teams to the playoffs. The only team that the Packers play that won a playoff game last season is the Seahawks, and compared to the rest of Seattle's schedule, the Packers are a cake walk. Still, I guess it's a good year for the Packers to achieve that 16 & 0 mark, if the Vikings don't end up doing that. Unfortunately, for Minnesota, their winning the division in 2015 means that they play Arizona and Carolina, and the Packers play the possibly easier-to-beat Falcons and previously mentioned Seahawks. Regardless, Minnesota is likely to have a great year, as is Detroit, especially if Megatron stays in the game. Detroit is due a great season after the giant pile of crap handed to them last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three teams make the 2016 playoff picture. Chicago, to round out the division, might go 8 & 8.

The NFC East is likely to be a little better, depending on how the Eagles and Giants fare with new coaches, how Dallas does with a healthy Tony Romo, and if Washington keeps Cousins. The NFC South is probably going to go back to Garbage Division status in 2016, all depending on how much those teams - all of those teams - can improve in the off-season. Carolina has Newton and Olson, but they're going to need a few more play-makers to look nearly as good. The NFC West is going to be split between Super Bowl contenders Arizona and Seattle and Chip Kelly's 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams, neither of which I expect to do well next year.

The AFC South is not likely to be any better in 2016 than they were in 2015. If the Texans get a quarterback (how about Kirk Cousins? We would all really like that), they might get back to the playoffs. Indianapolis will probably have a healthy Andrew Luck and that will probably dash the Texans' hopes. Tennessee and Jacksonville will also play games in 2016, but will probably lose most of them.

The AFC West is going to be the division to beat, though I don't have as much hope for the Chargers as I do for the three other teams. They have a relatively easy season, and Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland looked good in 2015. I'm torn about which between the AFC East and AFC North will be the better division. I do have doubts that New England will be able to hang on to their lead in the AFC East. Cincinnati will win their first playoff game in ages, and might go all the way to Super Bowl LI, where they will lose to the still awesome Arizona Cardinals.

And there you have it. The Ancient Oracle of Football has spoken. So it shall be written, so it shall be done!

Going for Two: Quarterback Beauty Pageant Results

At long last, after all the rounds, the competitions, and the judging, the scores are in, and we can now reveal Mr. NFL Quarterback 2015!

First, I would like to thank all of the back-ups that never got a start in 2015. These 20 young men worked all year, coming to practice, suiting up, learning plays, running routes, throwing balls, doing other things, just to be ready to take on the responsibility to lead their team to a win should the starter be unable to play. They probably do other things to, I have no idea. Let's give them a round of applause! Better luck next year, guys.

2015 NFL Back-up Quarterbacks #7, NYJ Smith, Geno #3, IND Lindley, Ryan #8, DET Orlovsky, Dan #7, SEA Jackson, Tarvaris #6, IND Whitehurst, Charlie #3, CAR Anderson, Derek #14, OAK McGloin, Matt #14, STL Mannion, Sean #16, WAS McCoy, Colt #13, MIN Hill, Shaun #5, ARI Stanton, Drew #8, MIA Moore, Matt #11, TEN Tanney, Alex #12, ATL Renfree, Sean #12, NYG Nassib, Ryan #2, HOU Daniels, B.J. #10, SD Clemens, Kellen #10, NE Garoppolo, Jimmy #3, IND Lindley, Ryan #16, GB Tolzien, Scott #7, SEA Jackson, Tarvaris #10, KC Daniel, Chase

So now, I will reveal finalists 10-6. You probably already figured out who didn't make the top seven from the previous post, and here is the way the scores worked out:

Number 10 #5, BUF Tyrod Taylor

Number 9 #9, NO Drew Brees

Number 8 #8, WAS Kirk Cousins

Number 7 #9, DET Matthew Stafford

Number 6 #11, KC Alex Smith

Congratulations, guys! You were a joy to work with this year, and I wish you the best of luck next year. Well, most of you. Certain things prevent me from being completely honest about that statement, but you already know that.

4th Runner Up (5th Place): #12, GB Aaron Rodgers

From my own Green Bay Packers, 32 year old, two-time NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers. His winning smile, great sense of humor, approach to charity, and having taken my Packers to their fifth Super Bowl to earn their 13th World Championship were points in his favor. He impressed the judges further with his above average QB rating, fourth-highest TD to Int ratio, and the Rodgers to Rodgers 2015 NFL Play of the Year.

3th Runner Up (4th Place): #1, CAR Cam Newton

The third runner up is the 2015 MVP, Cam Newton, who has been called "one of the most athletically gifted quarterbacks in draft history". Cam was the Heisman trophy winner and first overall draft pick of the 2011 class. During the pageant, his winning smile and playful attitude made everyone around him happy. That's why he was also the winner of this year's Mr. Congeniality award. Congratulations, Cam!

2th Runner Up (3th Place): #14, CIN Andy Dalton

The second runner up comes from Katy, Texas, and plays for the Cincinnati Bengals, Andy Dalton. Like Mr. Newton, Andy came from the 2011 draft class, and was the 35th overall pick. This year, he had the fifth highest TD to Int ratio and second highest Quarterback Rating. While it's true that he's the only one of the top 5 that hasn't yet been to a Super Bowl, our judges know that it's only a matter of time. Mr. Dalton has also been very active in the Cincinnati area. He and his lovely wife, Jordan, host many fundraisers for children with significant health issues.

At last, we have come to our two final contestants.

Both of these young men came from the 2012 draft class, #3 from the Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson, and #17, from the Denver Broncos, Brock Osweiler. The 6'8" Osweiler was the 57th overall pick, going in the second round to play Peyton Manning's understudy for four years, getting his first starts this year, which included ending the New England Patriots' perfect season.

The 5'11" Wilson was picked in the 3rd round, as the 75th overall pick, and went on to start for the Seahawks, winning a Super Bowl in just his second year, and nearly repeating in his third.

The first runner up, with an above average Quarterback Rating and Yards Per Game, admirable offfield behavior, and great scores for Profile Photo, Offfield, Uniform, and College Look, is #17, DEN Brock Osweiler, meaning:

Mr. NFL Quarterback 2015: #3, SEA Russell Wilson

Mr Wilson, a native of Cincinnati, OH, had the highest Quarterback Rating of 2015, and the second highest TD to Int ratio. His offfield behavior is impressive, earning him top marks in each round. He's made a real difference for the city of Seattle, on and off the field, and after this whole journey to find the best of the best, I can't think of anyone more deserving than Russell Wilson. Congratulations, Russell Wilson!

Thank you all for tuning in to this year's NFL Quarterback Beauty Pageant! This concludes the 2015 season, with all its ups and downs, triumphs and heartbreaks. 2016 is right around the corner, however - actually, we're already in it, technically. Soon enough, I'll be entereing numbers into my spreadsheet and watching the opening kick-off. I hope you'll join me, and all of the great guys that make the NFL so much fun to watch!

Enjoy the offseason, kids!

Going for Two: Quarterback Beauty Pageant Teasers

I'm deep into collecting photos of the 7 final, final, finalists for the judges to assess this round. In the meantime, I've discovered that Sports Illustrated already declared my boyfriend as the fairest of them all, at least in terms of his profile photo. I can't really disagree with that assessment, but being Mr. NFL Quarterback 2015, however, is about a lot more than a profile photo.

It shouldn't be a surprise that Alex Smith made this round, but what is surprising is the amount of plaid he wears. The only time I've seen more plaid is on a photo album from an old college friend and his husband. They wear a LOT of plaid, but in their defense, they do live in Minnesota.  

Two of these might not technically be plaid, but it's a plaid spirit.

Cam Newton is another final, final, finalist, and his press conference fashion is significantly more interesting. 1, 2, and 4 below aren't bad, but somehow, the look in number 3 makes me think he lost a bet or something. Maybe he mixed up the petite pants with the tall pants that he wore for number 1?

You wish you looked this good. Actually, that's mean, I'm sure you look just fine. 

Andy Dalton's teaser entry comes from his successful effort to take a Tonight Show joke full circle and meet with his "dad". This was also the superlative that he read on the segment where NFL players read their own. A sense of humor goes a long way, and Dalton certainly needs one. The Red Rifle is the butt of many more jokes and memes online than any of the other final, final, finalists. Regarding fashion, Dalton appears to fall a little flat. During an appearance where he read the weather on a Cincinnati morning show, he was in an ill-fitting t-shirt, and otherwise, he's in a bland suit or another t-shirt. Sometimes, a polo or leather jacket. That won't really take away from his score, since this is a beauty pageant, not a fashion show. Dalton has enough in other areas that he has little to worry about. He got to this round, after all.

I don't even have to make a photo-spread for Russell Wilson. GQ did one for me, and for every other red-blooded American. Thank you, and you're welcome.

Thank you, Russell Wilson, thank YOU.

Only one back-up QB made this round, and you all know who that was.

He's beautiful, and you're a loser! Sorry, that was mean too, you're cool.

The only problem with that was finding enough street clothes photos of him that do not compare him to Robert Pattinson, which, for the record, is not why I like him. Mostly... Look, Twilight, Schwilight, it's not like the guy wasn't attractive. Actually, Osweiler is probably better looking than Pattinson. Anyway, here are the best photos I was able to cobble up.

Stafford made the top cut as well, and he's really lucky that style isn't as important. Really, really lucky. Photos of him and his very, very happy, and a little smug, looking spouse on vacation at the beach are much more interesting, but I went with the grey press conference collage here.

I get it, he only wears a suit when the Lions win.

And finally, the final of the final, final, finalists. Aaron Rodgers certainly has some interesting photos online. He doesn't wear costumes as often as Alex Smith and his family, but he did win Celebrity Jeopardy and experimented with odd - or, rather creepy - facial hair at one point.

I don't know what he has in the bottom left, why he's drinking a grape Crush, or what's up with the bolo tie, but I like it.

And there you have it, the seven final, final, finalists. Now excuse me, um, the judges need to deliberate now. 

Going for Two: Quarterback Beauty Pageant Update

My apologies for the lack of posts. There has been a lot of argument among the judges about this round, but we have come to a decision, and the Final, Final, Final results should be posted this weekend.

In the meantime, enjoy this photo of AJ McCarron, who was very sadly disqualified.

No, not because he looks 15 (aside from the tattoos), but because he started fewer than 5 regular season games.

Going for Two: Quarterback Beauty Pageant Finals Part Two

The second to last round of the finals is complete. I have assembled and assessed how each of the top ten contestants look in their uniforms. I have posted collages for each QB here.

 Some say that gingers have no souls.
I think they're just jealous.

A-A-Ron can really rock a beanie. For the record, yes, I do hate the Packers' away uniforms.

  Have I mentioned how much I wish Alex
still played for the 49ers? Cuz I do.

So many good photos, it was a shame I was limited to four.

It's Carolina's favorite quarterback and top cheerleader. I don't care what people say, I love this cocky asshole. 

Drew Brees is also here. No, really, that's all I got.    

Cousins can certainly take a good photo. I wanted a full-body shot of his "YOU LIKE THAT!" tirade, but I couldn't find any.

Stafford is surprisingly attractive. I wasn't expecting that when I started this process either.

  Not many of the guys can do sexy like Wilson. I don't even think he's trying.

I still don't know a lot about this guy, but
I'll be watching him with interest next year.   

The seven final finalists will be revealed tomorrow, or maybe Friday, during the street clothing round.

Going for Two: SUPERBOWL SUNDAY

Watching the NFL Network earlier today, I really enjoyed the adult conversation that the panel of black and white men had about the bias against Cam. They wondered if it was racial, but didn't go so far as to call fans racist, which is good form. They did explain how it was cultural, and that a lot of people don't understand the culture that he comes from. They also referenced a commentator from years past that would reference rap songs, and would be called out for making "obscure" references, but when the other guy made a Seinfeld reference and the first guy never heard of it, it wasn't noted. It seems that the NFL realized that they were reaching two different markets, and opted to not alienate one market just to placate the dominant one.

Kick-off: Lady Gaga's National Anthem was amazing. There is an over/under on Peyton Manning saying Omaha tonight - 15 is the number. I believe that the Panthers won the toss and elected to kick. End of Q1: Denver saved their game by getting points on the board on their first possession. The pressure, and playing away fro home must be getting to Cam. He's a lot more of a drop-back, pocket quarterback in this game, and he had a ball stripped from him that the Broncos retrieved in the end zone to out them up by 10. Denver brought their A game, and the Panthers are just struggling. Mid Q2: There has been a lot of football in the last 23 minutes, and while Carolina got points on the board, they're still struggling. Carolina looked like it could have gone ahead at one point after Manning was intercepted, but Denver's defense held. They had a chance to get points at the end of the half, but again, the defense stopped them.

Mid 4th: The game has gotten less interesting, but suddenly, it got more interesting with a Cam Newton fumble and Denver recovered the ball at the 5 yard line. The room agrees that Denver's constant running is signature Kubiak. He likes to get shitty leads, and then run the ball all the time, it seems. But that hasn't come to pass and the Broncos finally got an offensive touchdown to go ahead by 12, then 14, with the two-point conversion.

Going for Two: Quarterback Beauty Pageant Finals Part One

The Finals are upon us, and this means researching each of the 16 finalists to find out what they do offfield, which is a word that should probably be hyphenated, but I haven't done that yet, and I don't want to start now. So... yeah... I started the research by Googling Jay Cutler and learned that jaycutler.com/ is not the Bears' Quarterback's website. His website is jaycutlersix.com/, but it kind of sucks - don't get me wrong, it's for his diabetes charity and very inspirational, it's just really annoyingly laid out. I found good and bad things about him, then found that he invited the family of a murdered Chicago Bears fan to a Monday Night Football game, which was a pretty cool thing to do.

I'm don't blog about every finalist, since there are 16. It was enough to research them off Wikipedia to add to their Preliminary score. But briefly, two of the finalists didn't make the beach outing, so we took them out later and got a photo. At first, it was a little awkward, given the game two weeks ago, but they had a good time in the end.

At this point in the post, I am revealing the Quarterbacks that reached the finals, but had the lowest scores after the additional research. Congratulations, fellows, you did a great job this year, and you look great.

16. San Diego's Philip Rivers
15. The Rams' Case Keenum
14. New England's Tom Brady
13. Arizona's Carson Palmer

The next stage is to score the final 12 QBs based on their college photos. I managed to find a photo of each QB from his college days, without his helmet. This was sometimes near impossible, as evidenced by some of the photos found, but here they are, the rest of the top 16.

The only photo I could find was of Brees and teammates, so I edited them out, except for a hand, and put him in front of some trees.	Michigan State, blech. Cousins really doesn't know how to pick teams. At least it's not Ohio State.	Finding a representative photo of Dalton in college was near impossible.	Cutler started college at 15, apparently.
I'm pretty sure this is Eli. Another hard photo to find.	Believe it or not, that IS Cam Newton.	A-A-Ron hasn't aged a day. Not sure if that's good or bad.	The number is 11, and Smith went to Utah. I guess this is the right photo.
Loved him in Parks & Rec.	Maroon is a nice color.	I know very little about Tyrod Taylor, but he looks nice in orange.	Hello there, Russell.

After a full assessment, then a second assessment, the top ten were selected. Below are those that failed to make the cut after the second look. Congratulations, young men, on making it this far.

12. The Chicago Bears' own Jay Cutler
11. New York Giants' Eli Manning

Up next, we will review how the top ten look in their uniforms and then off the field before we crown Mr. NFL Quarterback 2015!