Going for Two: Week Seventeen Preview and Picks

There is no Thursday Night, Saturday Night, or Monday Night Football this week and it's messing with me. Everything for Week Seventeen is crammed into Sunday, with ten games starting at noon, five at 3:25, and a single prime time game featuring the Vikings and my Packers to decide the winner of the NFC North. It's in Lambeau, but that doesn't mean what it used to - not with Detroit and Chicago having won there this year. But it's been a good week, and it's a new year, so hope springs eternal.

Here are my picks for Week 17:

	Games			Calculated Winner	Benchmark Winner	Gut Picks
N O O N G A M E S	NO	at	ATL	ATL (63%)	ATL (61%)	ATL
	NYJ	at	BUF	NYJ (53%)	NYJ (61%)	NYJ
	DET	at	CHI	CHI (43%)	DET (61%)	DET
	BAL	at	CIN	CIN (63%)	CIN (61%)	CIN
	PIT	at	CLE	PIT (63%)	PIT (61%)	PIT
	WAS	at	DAL	WAS (53%)	DAL (31%)	WAS
	JAX	at	HOU	HOU (63%)	HOU (61%)	HOU
	TEN	at	IND	IND (63%)	IND (61%)	IND
	NE	at	MIA	NE (63%)	NE (61%)	NE
	PHI	at	NYG	NYG (32%)	NYG (61%)	NYG
L A T E	SEA	at	ARI	ARI (63%)	ARI (61%)	ARI
	TB	at	CAR	CAR (63%)	CAR (61%)	CAR
	SD	at	DEN	DEN (63%)	DEN (61%)	DEN
	OAK	at	KC	KC (63%)	KC (61%)	KC
	STL	at	SF	STL (53%)	STL (61%)	STL
PT	MIN	at	GB	GB (63%)	GB (61%)	GB

The percentages next to the calculated and benchmark winners represent the average accuracy for that metric and are an attempt to identify the possibility that this will be right. For example, the Benchmark Winners combines two metrics and together, they are 61% accurate. If they both pick that team, the percent is 61%. If only one metric picks that team, then the percent is lower to reflect that. The Calculated Winners combine 6 different metrics with an overall average accuracy of 63%  and range from 59% to 67% accurate.

My Gut picks, which have a 63% accuracy rating this year, are sometimes adjusted based on disagreement between the calculations and/or benchmark, as well as things I know. In this case, I'm going with the calculation with the 67% accuracy rating except for the Detroit at Chicago game - Detroit is just a better team than Chicago. I almost switched up the Philly at NY Giants game, but am sticking with the Giants because they will have Odell Beckham back. There is something to be said for the firing of Chip Kelly, but that could really go either way.