Monday, January 22, 2018

Oh Yeah, Football: Superb Owl

Early predictions of Jacksonville's wild success this year proved true but the freight train that is New England is back in the Super Bowl this year anyway. I've done a lot of analysis since my last post and my playoff predictions are 7 for 10 and the benchmarks are 5 and 6 for 10.

On one hand, New England is the easy favorite and a blow-out is possible. On the other, it looks like Philly thrives on being an underdog. With my calculation, it turns out that Philly is just barely an underdog, with 9.8 points to New England's 10. Basically, the teams have an equal score and we can consider New England the favorite as if they were the home team.

PHINE
Upset RatesAccuracy Rates
Specific88% (7 of 8)100% (1 of 1)
Overall60%86%


New England simply has not faced many opponents at home that were evenly matched. There are 5 more games at home where they had 1 point over the underdog and they won all those games. 

This may look like a shoe-in for New England, but there is a lot to be said in Philadelphia's upset rates. They blew out Minestrone with a 53% Upset Rate to Minnesota's 71% accuracy rate. We can only $%#&ing hope.

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