A kickoff return for a touchdown that started down the middle.
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I have run the numbers, and no matter who wins the next two games, Dallas is the biggest loser of the week, going from a possible 8&8, with playoff hopes, to a record worse than San Francisco. And no matter what happens, Philadelphia is on top of the NFC East, with a 10&6 or better record.
For Divisions, the AFC South is the biggest loser - if not the team in the AFC with a great record that can't go to the playoffs because the winner of the AFC South goes to the playoffs with 6&10. |
Now, if Miami can win on Thursday, which is a LONG shot, even if they are playing like a new team, they can recover from early losses to an 11&5 record, putting them into a Wild Card spot along with Division rivals New England Patriots? And the Jets win the AFC East - wait a second...
My calculation is getting less and less reliable as the season goes on and pure wins and losses start to take over from my original rankings. This is the first week that my gut picks, no matter what happens (because they align with the calculation for the last two), do better than the calculation. Coming up with a new number might be tricky. I could find some mid-season depth chart rankings, if those exist, but the depth chart articles I used for the original number came out over the course of a few weeks. Wins and Losses may determine Division winners and playoff spots, but they don't determine whether a team will win any given game.
I've been toying with calculating each win differently based on the rank of the loser and the point difference. So far, the calculation that factors in the rank of the loser is doing better than my Gut picks. It predicted Oakland's, New Orleans', and the Giant's wins, but not Kansas City or Jacksonville. Football LOCKS predicted Kansas City and the Giants, but not New Orleans or Oakland, and no one was right about Jacksonville. Now, if Carolina and Arizona can do the needful and get their W's, I may have my mid-season calculation.
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