Going for Two: Week Five Possibilities

WOOO PACKERS! PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!

Ok, no, they're just undefeated, like 5 other teams in the NFL, 5&0 like 4 other teams, and projected to continue to be undefeated until the playoffs, like three other teams. I don't even care that my Gut pick was wrong - my Gut picks were pretty bad this week anyway because I wanted to take some risks. As it turned out, only my Cincinnati risk (which wasn't much of a risk) actually paid out. Playing it safe wasn't perfect, but so far, only 2 of those 7 picks have gone wrong. I also do not see San Francisco winning against the Giants tonight. These teams are much less evenly matched than their records imply. What I mean is that the Giants are pretty good and the Niners suuuuuuhhhhhhhhh-hhhhhuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

But, still, nothing is certain in the NFL, and I can't just issue new projections without accounting for a possible SF win and/or my last risk of the week (which also isn't a risk, picking San Diego to defeat Rothlessburger-less Steelers, in San Diego) pays off. I tested the four possibilities and I can safely report the projections for all but 11 teams. Three divisions, AFC East, AFC South, and NFC South, are set, and none of the variations alter the teams on top of any of the divisions, but they do seem to affect the middle of the divisions, and even some playoff hopes.

Interestingly, while a San Francisco win would help SF increase from a projected 1&15 record (to 3&13, actually), the real winner would be Seattle, but only if San Diego also wins. For them, it's the difference between a 7&9 and 10&6 season. If the Giants lose tonight, however, they go from 8&8, in a division where that could get them into the playoffs, to 5&11. In the case of San Diego and Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh has more to lose (11&5 to 7&9) than San Diego has to gain (9&7 to 11&5), but only one can walk away with an 11&5 projection.