Going for Two: Week Seven Records Redux

So I said, in the last post, that the projected end-of-season records are different now, but never posted the results, so here they are.

Here are my recent playoff projections.

Original Calculation AFC 1. New England (16&0) 2. Cincinnati (16&0) 3. Denver (13&3) 4. Indianapolis (6&10) 5. New York Jets (13&3) 6. Pittsburgh (10&6) Next-best records were 8&8, and yes, the AFC South was projected to be that bad. NFC 1. Carolina (16&0) 2. Green Bay (15&1) 3. Arizona (12&4) 4. Philadelphia (10&6) 5. Atlanta (13&3) 6. Minnesota (10&6) Next-best team is St.Louis with a 10&6 record. Minnesota is projected to defeat them in Week 9.

Mid-Season Calculation AFC 1. New England (16&0) 2. Cincinnati (16&0) 3. Denver (13&3) 4. Indianapolis (7&9) 5. New York Jets (13&3) 6. Pittsburgh (10&6) Next-best records are 9&7, but they aren't in the AFC South. NFC 1. Green Bay (16&0) 2. Atlanta (15&1) 3. Arizona (12&4) 4. New York Giants (9&7) 5. Carolina (13&3) 6. Minnesota (10&6) Next-best team is the same team with a 10&6 record, but they're still not projected to win in Week 9.

Miami is nowhere to be seen, but Arizona is still in the running, and perennial favorites New England, Green Bay, Denver, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis are there too. Seattle ends the season with a dismal 7&9, and both teams from Super Bowl 47 do even worse. By far, the biggest embarrassment is the AFC South, which will, like the NFC South last year, offer up a team with a losing record as its best. But if history repeats itself next year, 2016 could be very good for them too. In 2015, NFC South is projected to be the strongest division, with two playoff teams and New Orleans at 9&7. In the end, I sh*t you not, the two teams playing on Super Bowl Sunday will be Green Bay and Cincinnati. Yes, I am a Packer shareholder, and yes, my mother grew up in and was the only one to leave Cincinnati (my cousin is so much of a Bengals fan that her wedding garter was orange and black, and yes, it was hideous), but I swear that I did not rig these calculations. I don't even know HOW I would have been able to rig that outcome, ferchristsakes.

AFC South   IND 7 & 9 JAX 7 & 9 HOU 4 & 12 TEN 1 & 15 NFC South ATL 15 & 1 CAR 13 & 3 NO 9 & 7 TB 3 & 13

Going for Two: Week Eight Calculations

I really should have named this year's posts "The Running Game", but whatever.

I have new calculations, and these new calculations have produced new predictions. Well, one of the new calculation produced new predictions for records at the end of the season. The other is more of a guide to help me with my Gut Picks.

New Calculation 1: Weighted Wins Mid-Season Calculation
This calculation weights wins based on how good or bad the losing team is, using the original points granted to the team at the beginning of the season. The weight of those points decreases with each week, finally being factored out in favor of just weighted points for wins and losses after Week 10. Then there are some other math things going on that finally identify a number for that team. I think I divide by the number of the week and multiply by something else - it's weird, but it's consistent, and it was pretty accurate for Week 7 - at least it was, until I did some fiddling. I had to fudge numbers to save this chart as an image. I guess I need to tweak it some more, but the premise seems sound.

The other nice thing about this is that it can be applied to predictions right away, so next year, I'll only have one calculation.

The chart below shows the percent of correct picks for the first 7 weeks, starting with what I call the "Favorites", which are the picks from the Football LOCKS website, a somewhat official odds-making site that goes so far as to charge a subscription fee for some information. I don't pay the fee, and only track their picks as a benchmark for my own. Next, in order, are my first calculation, my Gut Picks, the Mid-Season picks, and the picks based on Average Points.

This is percent correct. For some reason, I can't make the left axis into percents, but that is what they should be.

New Calculation 2: Average Points Scored
At first, I had another complex calculation that ranked wins based on the point differences, giving no points at all to losers that scored less than the difference in Final scores, and partial credit to losing teams with higher scores. Then I decided that that was too complicated and too much like the Mid-Season Calculation, plus I wanted to remove some of the complexity from my Google Sheet. I decided to go with a very basic comparison of average points scored at that point in the season. In order to ensure that this data remains static for each week, however, I had to flex my Google Sheets function creating muscles.

Ultimately, it's the sum of scores for all weeks prior to the current week, divided by the previous number of weeks (give or take 1, based on the Bye), but in order to get this information, I had to create a ROW function in one sheet, to be captured with two VLOOKUPs, and place column letters for the week prior in the sheets for each week, then CONCATENATE all of them inside an INDIRECT function before applying the SUM and dividing by that number related to the number of weeks.

I'm pretty proud of it, if I don't say so myself.

Going for Two: Week Seven Winners and Losers

A kickoff return for a touchdown that started down the middle.

I have run the numbers, and no matter who wins the next two games, Dallas is the biggest loser of the week, going from a possible 8&8, with playoff hopes, to a record worse than San Francisco. And no matter what happens, Philadelphia is on top of the NFC East, with a 10&6 or better record. For Divisions, the AFC South is the biggest loser - if not the team in the AFC with a great record that can't go to the playoffs because the winner of the AFC South goes to the playoffs with 6&10.

Now, if Miami can win on Thursday, which is a LONG shot, even if they are playing like a new team, they can recover from early losses to an 11&5 record, putting them into a Wild Card spot along with Division rivals New England Patriots? And the Jets win the AFC East - wait a second...

My calculation is getting less and less reliable as the season goes on and pure wins and losses start to take over from my original rankings. This is the first week that my gut picks, no matter what happens (because they align with the calculation for the last two), do better than the calculation. Coming up with a new number might be tricky. I could find some mid-season depth chart rankings, if those exist, but the depth chart articles I used for the original number came out over the course of a few weeks. Wins and Losses may determine Division winners and playoff spots, but they don't determine whether a team will win any given game.

I've been toying with calculating each win differently based on the rank of the loser and the point difference. So far, the calculation that factors in the rank of the loser is doing better than my Gut picks. It predicted Oakland's, New Orleans', and the Giant's wins, but not Kansas City or Jacksonville. Football LOCKS predicted Kansas City and the Giants, but not New Orleans or Oakland, and no one was right about Jacksonville. Now, if Carolina and Arizona can do the needful and get their W's, I may have my mid-season calculation.

Going for Two: Week Seven Cornerback RIghts

I only watched/heard the last ~10 minutes of the Jacksonville v Buffalo game on Yahoo, but there were two very important things I learned in the last few minutes.

After a delay of game call on Jacksonville, the commentator explained that the QB probably couldn't even see the play clock, and proceeded to tell us just how high up the play clock is by asking, then answering a question.

You know how high that play clock is up there in that end zone? Really high.

I think I understand that completely now.

Next, there was some kind of call on a defender, and the commentator was very offended. Apparently, (because I didn't see the play or replay), the defender was just trying to catch the ball, and a grave injustice occurred, because....

He has just as much right to that football as the receiver.

I have a dream that one day on the green sod of a football field, the children of former receivers and the children of former cornerbacks will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood. On that glorious day, we will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual: "Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!"

NFL Throwbacks: San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers 1996 Playoffs

This game was my childhood (even though I was 15, whatever). We video taped this game, and even with 25% of the screen obscured because of our shitty TV, we watched this recording over and over again. But tonight, to see that Desmond Howard punt return for a touchdown - Packers make the 49ers go 3 and out, then run the punt back for a touchdown - I cried. Shit man, shit.



After this game, they tore the sod out of the field and got it all back in for the NFC Championship against Carolina a week later. Packer frenzy was so high in Wisconsin at that time, that, when the Packers offered to sell the dirt from the field, Packer fans demanded that the Packers take their f*cking money for some dirt. I wish I had some of that dirt. Sure, I'm a shareholder, but that dirt.

Going for Two: Week Seven Face Off

I mean that face! Face this! The Face of Sadness hit his trainer in the face tonight. I made the graphic before I knew about this, however. I was inspired by the face of Colin Kaepernick on the sidelines while Wilson's Seahawks got a touchdown because they DIDN'T go with an inside screen at the goal line, and instead gave the ball to Lynch like they were supposed to. Sorry, Superbowl XLIX flashbacks. Anyway, I think someone should tell the Seahawks that they forgot to wash their away uniforms.

Since then, Wilson did throw two interceptions, so, yeah, fine, whatever, but Seattle has 17 points and San Francisco has cero. Except right now, the Niners made some nice completions and finally got on the board. I have predicted Seattle for this game, because, once again, while they have identical records right now, San Francisco suh-ucks.

Going for Two: Week Six & Too Much Stress

Actually, the stress happened last week, when I found myself panicking about the possibility that a team I like (San Francisco) might beat a team I really don't like (New York Giants), but thank goodness, for my calculation and my picks, they didn't. My calculation proved itself again that Monday, when Pittsburgh won, and so far, it's at 75%, while my own picks are at about 58%.

Today, the Packers stressed me out a lot too, with a defense that just couldn't stop the goddamn Chargers. But they came together at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and Goal at the end of the game to win the game, 27 to 20. I actually jumped up when that defender batted the ball away from the receiver on 4th down, and I know that we can't win them all, but damn it feels good to be 6 & 0.

So then I went home to watch SNF and put in the results from the weekend so far only to discover that, no matter what happens tonight or tomorrow, the Packers are now predicted to go 15 & 1. I started going through my sheets for each week - Bye on 7, still predicted to defeat Denver in 8, lose to Carolina in 9? Damn. Now Carolina is projected to be undefeated, with only New England and Cincinnati in the 16 & 0 party. But if New England loses tonight, they fall to 13 & 3. I can tell you that I won't mind a New England loss, and it definitely looks like a possibility right now.

Going for Two: Week Five Possibilities

WOOO PACKERS! PACKERS WIN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!

Ok, no, they're just undefeated, like 5 other teams in the NFL, 5&0 like 4 other teams, and projected to continue to be undefeated until the playoffs, like three other teams. I don't even care that my Gut pick was wrong - my Gut picks were pretty bad this week anyway because I wanted to take some risks. As it turned out, only my Cincinnati risk (which wasn't much of a risk) actually paid out. Playing it safe wasn't perfect, but so far, only 2 of those 7 picks have gone wrong. I also do not see San Francisco winning against the Giants tonight. These teams are much less evenly matched than their records imply. What I mean is that the Giants are pretty good and the Niners suuuuuuhhhhhhhhh-hhhhhuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

But, still, nothing is certain in the NFL, and I can't just issue new projections without accounting for a possible SF win and/or my last risk of the week (which also isn't a risk, picking San Diego to defeat Rothlessburger-less Steelers, in San Diego) pays off. I tested the four possibilities and I can safely report the projections for all but 11 teams. Three divisions, AFC East, AFC South, and NFC South, are set, and none of the variations alter the teams on top of any of the divisions, but they do seem to affect the middle of the divisions, and even some playoff hopes.

Interestingly, while a San Francisco win would help SF increase from a projected 1&15 record (to 3&13, actually), the real winner would be Seattle, but only if San Diego also wins. For them, it's the difference between a 7&9 and 10&6 season. If the Giants lose tonight, however, they go from 8&8, in a division where that could get them into the playoffs, to 5&11. In the case of San Diego and Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh has more to lose (11&5 to 7&9) than San Diego has to gain (9&7 to 11&5), but only one can walk away with an 11&5 projection.

Going for Two: Week Five Early On

The early games on in the Houston market couldn't be more boring. I-don't-care (Buffalo) at I-don't-care-AND-Really-bad (Tennessee) and Eh (Philadelphia) at Eh-AND-Bad (New Orleans). Show me Cincinnati and Seattle or even Chicago and Kansas City, ferchristsakes. Oh, look, New Orleans intercepted the Eagles in the end zone, YAWN. "A promising drive died."

You know what is more interesting? The fact that I picked against my calculation for almost half of the games this week, INCLUDING the Green Bay game - the Rams are ruiners, and I want to be prepared. I originally predicted a Detroit win, but I went back on that prediction to go with Arizona. Poor, poor Detroit, but if they defeated San Diego in Week 1 like they were supposed to, maybe things wouldn't be so bad now.

Here, for the record:

Game	My Gut	Calculation	Ftbl LOCKS
IND at HOU	HOU	IND	HOU
BUF at TEN	BUF	BUF	BUF
CLE at BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
CHI at KC	KC	KC	KC
SEA at CIN	CIN	SEA	CIN
STL at GB	STL	GB	GB
JAX at TB	JAX	TB	TB
NO at PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI
WAS at ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL
ARI at DET	ARI	ARI	ARI
NE at DAL	NE	NE	NE
DEN at OAK	OAK	DEN	DEN
SF at NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG
PIT at SD	SD	PIT	SD

Oh, look, New Orleans got a touchdown. Have I mentioned that the Eagles quarterback, when wearing his helmet, looks really adorable - like kitten-adorable. He's attractive-adorable without the helmet, but with it, I just want to scratch his chin and let him snuggle my arm. Tennessee got a field goal, yippie.

Going for Two: Projection Updates

I made a new discovery in my spreadsheet that uncovered an error that has been corrected. This has, once again, changed the projected records for all teams, though not by much.

It turns out that my calculation did put Miami into the Super Bowl after all, to play against Seattle, but early losses crushed those hopes fast. Miami went from 16&0 to 2&14 with that single loss to Jacksonville. Despite not winning another game, they are now projected to go 3&13. On the other hand, Seattle only got down to 8&8, and their 2 recent wins put them back up to 14&2.

The NFC East still sucks, but it's Dallas that makes the playoffs with an 8&8 record, not the Giants. San Francisco will still probably get that first round draft pick, thanks to their 1&15 record, but then again, it could go to Tennessee. In fact, Tennessee managed to go from 6&10 to 1&15 without even playing this week, they're just that bad.

But after all that, Green Bay and New England will be going to Santa Clara for Super Bowl 50.

Going for Two: Week Four or Whatever

I went to bed on Thursday thinking that Pittsburgh was good enough to win without Rothlessburger, but I had a major surprise on Sunday afternoon when I went to the NFL website. In between that time, I went on vacation and had a great time. On the way back, I bought the Clay Matthews Lego figure, even though it did not have the long blond hair that is so vital to the Clay Matthews look. I actually didn't do very well this week, compared to last week. My Gut and Rank picks were both 67%, but according to a guy I sat by on the plane, even 60% is "better than Vegas" or something.

But now, the week is over, and it's time to see what the new end-of-season projections are, then toy with the numbers to see what they might have been. The biggest loser is the state of Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh is replaced by Cincinnati at the top of the AFC North, with Baltimore picking up a Wild Card spot. Philly also loses their playoff spot, but the NFC East is what really takes a hit, with the Giants winning the Division with an 8&8 record.

Arizona's loss isn't a big deal - 12&4 instead of 14&2 - and Indianapolis and Seattle go down a game even with a win this week. The Colts, at 9&7, still win the AFC South, but Seattle's 6&10 cannot compete with the Cardinal juggernaut. 20 other teams stay the same, and as indicated before, Cincinnati is the biggest winner of the week, going from 11&5 to 15&1, but it didn't have to be this way.

~~~~~~~~~doodlie doodlie doo~~~~~~~~~

What if... ugh, fml, my calculation wasn't counting wins properly. Whatever, 'til next week.