Monday, September 21, 2015

Going for Two: Week Two Update

Stick a fork in the Colts, they're done. I've never seen so many turnovers outside of a bakery.

I mean really, what the hell. I feel bad for the poor people that got Andrew Luck on their fantasy team. On the other hand, anyone with the Jets defense probably did well.

Indianapolis's loss drags my Gut picks down to 50%, which was the same accuracy as the predictions from Football Locks. My calculation, on the other hand, managed 69%, or 11 correct predictions, and still couldn't see the Jacksonville, Oakland, or Tampa Bay wins coming.

I've started a new spreadsheet this week that tracks what the season will look like after Week 17 based on the results this week and my calculation. These numbers bounce around a lot, and it's cool to see how they change based on each win or loss. For instance, if the Colts had won this game, they would be projected to go 11&5 and the Jets 9&7. As it is, however, the Jets are projected to go 14&2 and the Colts 8&8, and with what I saw tonight, that doesn't seem too unrealistic.

Below are the projected total wins based on my calculation at the beginning of the season, after Week 1, and after Week 2. At this point, Denver will defeat the Jets to go to the Super Bowl where they will defeat either Atlanta or Green Bay.
AFCOpeningWeek 1Week 2
BUF5 & 1111 & 511 & 5
MIA16 & 016 & 02 & 14
NE8 & 811 & 513 & 3
NYJ7 & 95 & 1114 & 2
BAL10 & 611 & 59 & 7
CIN8 & 88 & 810 & 6
CLE6 & 103 & 134 & 12
PIT12 & 415 & 115 & 1
HOU13 & 38 & 88 & 8
IND15 & 113 & 39 & 7
JAX0 & 160 & 162 & 14
TEN4 & 124 & 125 & 11
DEN15 & 113 & 314 & 2
KC3 & 136 & 106 & 10
OAK0 & 160 & 161 & 15
SD6 & 108 & 89 & 7

NFCOpeningWeek 1Week 2
DAL14 & 214 & 215 & 1
NYG9 & 76 & 106 & 10
PHI12 & 49 & 78 & 8
WAS1 & 151 & 154 & 12
CHI4 & 125 & 112 & 14
DET7 & 93 & 135 & 11
GB10 & 616 & 016 & 0
MIN13 & 310 & 610 & 6
ATL6 & 1013 & 314 & 2
CAR9 & 79 & 711 & 5
NO8 & 86 & 100 & 16
TB1 & 151 & 154 & 12
ARI13 & 314 & 214 & 2
STL5 & 118 & 86 & 10
SF0 & 161 & 151 & 15
SEA16 & 08 & 88 & 8

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