Back to Football: Regular Season Results

My regular season average 'Gut' accuracy is 64%, below the accuracy of the FootballLocks.com picks ('Favorites'), but better than just picking the team with more wins ('Ranks'), and certainly better than picking the teams that I like, or 'Ideal' picks. Had I bet money, based on my calculation, I would have made a 12% ROI.

Next year, the plan is to go with the 'Favorites' for week 2, and it could be a good idea to use 'Ranks' for Week 1. Without that Week 2 dip, my season average is 65%. Speaking with other football fans also gives me ways to evaluate teams that still allow me to pay minimal attention to the actual games.

Back to Football: Week Seventeen Shenanigans

I made at least one stupid pick this week, thinking that Atlanta could defeat the Panthers, but that goes to not paying attention to intricacies of the game, like players. And though I had a suspicion that Kansas City could defeat the Bolts, I went with San Diego anyway and turned out to be wrong.

However, nothing was more controversial this week than an incident in the NFC North showdown between the Packers and Lions. Ndamukong Suh (pronounced Endam-u-kong Soo) knocked Aaron Rodgers (pronounced Eh-ron Ra-jers) to the ground during a play, then took some steps backwards, which happened to land his cleated feets on the sort-of injured calves of Mr. Rodgers.

The NFL suspended Suh for the Wildcard Playoff game against the Cowboys because their interpretation of the evidence is that he intentionally stepped on Rodgers' calf. Suh also has a history of not-so-unintentionally striking or hurting other players, which doesn't help his case.

However, after a few viewings of the incident at a slowed speed, I'm still willing to give the benefit of the doubt. On one hand, if his past offenses were similar - with him not looking at the victim - then maybe he did it on purpose, but I don't have that evidence in front of me. One could argue that Rodger's reaction indicated that he thought it was on purpose, but adrenaline runs high in football and being stepped on with cleats would make anyone mad, regardless of intent.

At normal speed, I don't really think that this incident is a big deal. I hope Suh wins his appeal, so he can help defeat the Cowboys next week. If not, well, I still hope the Lions can win.

Back to Football: Week Sixteen Unexpected Upsets

This was a bad week for me, starting with a Thursday Night Mistake. On Saturday, I went in to my local bar to get some advice from waitron N, who actually pays attention to football things. He convinced me to change my picks to go with San Diego and Indianapolis as additional upsets, but I wasn't convinced about Houston or Cincinnati. I nearly picked Kansas City too, but the change never got recorded in my spreadsheet. I must have gotten cold feed without remembering, because on Sunday, I thought I had picked them. It is the difference between 44% and 38% this week, so I'm going with the spreadsheet, unless someone presses me on it.

Hoo doggies was that San Francisco, San Diego game frustrating. Though the looks on Harbaugh and Kaepernick's faces - what do you mean we don't get to win this game by playing crappy football and getting lucky? - were pretty amusing in the end. But in during the game, I started wondering if N wasn't messing with me, cuz he knows that I'm keeping track and my all-too-valuable pride was on the line.  Anyway, it was alright - the Bolts came back and won in overtime. Now I'm wondering if SF should really be my second favorite team, but everything could change with a new coach next year.

Cut to Monday night, pretend other games didn't happen (WTF, Colts?) and we have N's "feeling" that Cincinnati would win. Listening to this game on the radio while en route to Little Rock, then watching the end at my motel, it seems like one of the most memorable games in Cincinnati Bengals history - certainly recent history, or this season, I have no idea because I don't really pay attention. It's always more exciting when your team needs the win to stay in the playoffs. It's a lot more special when you play a team that already clinched a spot in the playoffs, and was about to secure a first round bye. Make it a high scoring game and toss in some uncomfortable weather, and fans will always remember "where they were when..." So this week, N's feelings got 63% to my 38/44%. Paying attention FTW, I guess.

Back to Football: Week Fourteen/Fifteen Redux

I have not abandoned the NFL this year, I just got busy with... things?

I was very sad to learn that the Packers lost on Sunday to the perhaps-once-great Buffalo Bills, who allegedly had or have the best defense in the league. Perhaps that was just for Fantasy on that day, because NFL.com is ranking their Defense at 5th, and perhaps against the Packer's 6th ranked Offense, it was meant to be.

I must take solace in the fact that, even with a team in the Wild Card spot and not the Division Champions, at least I'm not a Houston Texans fan. The delusion that they could beat the Colts on Sunday was so strong around here that even I held out hope while I still picked IND to win. I might be a romantic, but I'm not dumb. Well, at least when I'm paying attention.

Speaking of not paying attention, I naively thought that the Cowboys would lose to the Eagles, unaware of the injuries that rendered them a mere shadow of the once NFC East Championship team they might have been. Perhaps in week 16, I will not make so many careless mistakes, but that actually requires work, so possibly not.

Back to Football: Week Fifteen The Most Boring Game

Alternate Title: Wherein I Learned that I Never Wrote about the Cardinals Before

I decided to watch the Cardinals vs. Rams game on Thursday, and was once again glad that I splurged for a better cable package, since the game was on the NFL Network. I got it on in time for the last few minutes of the first half, muted for the half-time crap, and then settled in to watch THE MOST BORING, DEPRESSING HALF OF FOOTBALL IMAGINABLE.

The Defensive game was pretty good, I guess, but who the hell cares? I picked Arizona because, even with Drew Stanton in to replace whatshisface, they were better than the Rams. And as the half went on, with the Rams going three and out, Cardinals going three and out, Rams going three and out, Cardinals getting a first down before going three and out, Rams going three and out, Cardinals getting a first down or two before a field goal, Rams going three and out, over and over, Drew Stanton is on the ground and Mr. Third String is warming up.

Could it be? The adequate back-up that could take Arizona, limping, to the Super Bowl, was, himself, limping? Yes, it was all too true. Limp, the Cardinals did, holding back the Rams in the Touchdown-less game so boring that I actually cheered when the Rams completed a passing play for a first down. Perhaps it is the last game Arizona wins this year, or perhaps San Francisco is a really bad team. For never was there a tale of more setback than of the Cardinals and their Quarterback.