What's up Kansas City! My long lost, estranged boyfriend threw 13 touchdown passes yesterday to beat the apparently pathetic Patriots 41-14 last night.
I've updated my potential earning calculations to only pay out $4 for successfully picking the 'favorite' to win and $7 to pick the 'upset.' After running my numbers, I realized that bookies actually have to make money on taking bets. These new numbers, when applied to the 2012 season, create the following numbers.
| 0% | -$2 | -13% | -$211 | 9% | $144 | -20% | -$325. |
| Favorite | Upset | Gut | Ideal |
Always betting on the 'Favorite' for every game would nearly mean you break even. Betting on the 'Upset' would cost you $211, and betting on teams I liked would have been the worst of all. The next addition to my calculation will probably be a column where I define the 'odds' and increase the payout for a successful 'Upset' pick by that number. Perhaps it could be the difference in wins between the teams.
I also added some conditional formatting to indicate which teams were Good, Bad, and Mediocre in 2013. This should help me make better picks, unless it doesn't.
No comments:
Post a Comment