READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 17 Predictions

Ahead of time, for once. Most predictions are easy this week. I'm reserving judgement for some games until I can do analysis on Saturday.

Sunday Early Games
	MIA	at	BUF		This is a tricky one because Miami sort of appears to be the better team. Neither has playoff hopes though and it's in Buffalo. I'm sticking with the benchmarks and picking the Bills.
	DET	at	GB		PACKERS!!!!!
	JAX	at	HOU		Houston's playoff place isn't set in stone and a win coupled with a Patriot loss would give them a first round bye. The benchmarks and I agree that they'll be playing to win.
	NYJ	at	NE		Everyone agrees that New England has this one.
	CAR	at	NO		New Orleans has everything wrapped up but they aren't giving anything away.
	DAL	at	NYG		Jerry Jones has asserted that no one is resting for this game, even though a loss wouldn't mean anything. I think they'd be stupid to put their starters at risk and the better benchmark has the Giants by 6. This will be a game day decision.
	ATL	at	TB		Tampa Bay does better at home than Atlanta does on the road but everyone else says Atlanta will win.
Sunday Late Games
	CLE	at	BAL		Everyone agrees on Baltimore
	OAK	at	KC		Everyone agrees on Kansas City
	CHI	at	MIN		Chicago has no real incentive to win with the NFC North Championship wrapped up but Minnesota is in a win-or-go-home situation. The Benchmarks are split, with the better having the Vikings. I need to do more analysis for a final decision.
	CIN	at	PIT		Everyone agrees on Pittsburgh
	PHI	at	WAS		Everyone agrees on Philly
	SF	at	LA		Everyone agrees on the Rams
	SD	at	DEN		Everyone agrees on the Chargers
	ARI	at	SEA		Everyone agrees on Seattle
The day's most interesting game on Sunday Night
	IND	at	TEN		Here it is, the game of the week, the win-or-go-home game. It's too bad Romo won't get to call it. The benchmarks say Indy and I'm inclined to agree, even against all my calculations (as they are now).

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 16 Predictions, Suspicions

I lost faith in the Packers, but then again, that wasn't very difficult this year. My two other upset predictions turned out to be true, as did a couple suspicions that I didn't make into predictions.

Saturday Games
	WAS	at	TEN		Everyone picked TEN and they won.
	BAL	at	SD		The benchmarks had the Chargers (still SD for me) but given the quality of the Ravens' new QB, I had to up their ranking for the week, giving them the edge. Turned out that I was right.
Sunday Early Games
	NYG	at	IND		Everyone picked IND and they won. I wasn't completely surprised that the Giants had the lead for most of the game, as this one also gave me a suspicion, but it wasn't enough for me to change my pick
	JAX	at	MIA		Here, I had a suspicion that Miami couldn't win but I went with the benchmarks and picked them anyway.
	ATL	at	CAR		The benchmarks were split, the NFL still foolishly hanging on to Carolina's ability to win games, but the rest of correctly picked Atlanta to win.
	CIN	at	CLE		Everyone picked CLE and they won
	TB	at	DAL		Everyone picked DAL and they won
	MIN	at	DET		Everyone picked MIN and they won
	BUF	at	NE		Everyone picked NE and they won
	GB	at	NYJ		I didn't have faith and I'm not too impressed with the overtime win over one of the worst teams in the league. This is the only one of my three "upset" predictions that wasn't true.
	HOU	at	PHI		The benchmarks were split, with the NFL correctly identifying Houston as the better team. However, with Foles as QB and a playoff berth at stake, I cast suspicion aside and went with the other benchmark to correctly pick Philly.
Sunday Late Games
	LA	at	ARI		Everyone picked LA and they won
	CHI	at	SF		Everyone picked CHI and they won
	PIT	at	NO		Everyone picked NO and they won
Sunday & Monday Night Games
	KC	at	SEA		Three words: Seattle at home. The benchmarks had Kansas City but I just couldn't go along time time. Fortunately, for me, I was right.
	DEN	at	OAK		Oakland beat Pittsburgh so I definitely had a suspicion they could beat Denver but I went with the benchmarks, picking Denver, and missed the upset.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 14 Something Was Done

For the past few weeks, I'd been saying, about the Packers, "something has to be done". Maybe it was "something has to happen", whatever, the intent was the same. The Packers needed to do something to change things, I just wasn't sure they would do anything.

I enjoyed the interview that FOX NFL Sunday did in Wisconsin with real Wisconie Packer fans because practically everyone was of the same mind. It seems like the only people that are upset are the talking heads. The fans range from "it's two and a half seasons too late" to "I'm sorry he lost his job during the holidays, but..."

I think McCarthy should go to the Browns. It would be good for both of them.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 12 I'm still here

There once was a time in my life when I was bored, when I had nothing to do, but that time is not now. I've managed to fill my days now with anything and everything, not the least of which being keeping up with my picks which have been good. Up until Week 7, things weren't looking great - I was keeping pace with the main benchmark but just barely. That's when I reevaluated my algorithm and brought it back to the original intent. This adjustment took my season accuracy from about 64% to 70% and my accuracy for Week 7 to 100%. It's gone down since then but always comfortably above the benchmark.

The dark lines track the actual accuracy rate each week and the pale lines represent the trend lines, showing that my calculation, while more erratic than the benchmark, is trending better. Week 12 results assume the following:

• Miami wins, against the prediction of both me and the benchmark (they're tied right now)
• Denver wins, again upsetting both predictions (Denver is ahead right now)
• Minnesota wins, as predicted
• Houston wins, as predicted by the benchmark by upsetting my prediction (it's a long story)

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 12 I Love Drew Brees

Yeah, I said it and I mean it. Drew Brees is the GOAT, running for first downs better than Brady would have in his rookie season, making completions that make A-a-ron jealous.

From: https://www.reddit.com/r/Saints/comments/9mkzll/browns_fan_herebreesus_is_jesus_congrats_saints/

There he is, Breesus, King of the Drews

Don't get me wrong, I'm still a Packers fan, but they're not likely to do very well this year anyway - I mean, maybe they might, there is always hope.... But whatever, it's the Saints' year and Brees is on fire! It's a real joy to watch.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 3 The Power of One

Four teams, two destinies, one record. Will they meet again in the Championship rounds? Doubtful for a couple, but it's still pretty cool.

AFC North

Week 1 Tie Week 2 Loss Week 3 Win

Week 1 Win Week 2 Tie Week 3 Loss

NFC North

In case you don't remember, each one's tie was against their division rival.

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 2 Drive-by

Just a drive by post to remind you that the Packers defense is trash - nearly as bad as the Vikings kicking game.

TRASH TRASH TRASH TRASH TRASH TRASH!

READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL: Week 1 and Season Update

Well, I guess I should have known it was too good to be true - that I didn't have the manually update information for certain weeks in order to get an accurate result for my calculation, but at least Chicago doesn't win the Super Bowl anymore.

UPDATE 9/9/2018

Every year is a relearning experience with my spreadsheet to try to remember all of the little tricks I've hidden within the cells. After a massive simplification effort that removed a number of experimental calculations and then data entry for the early games of Week 1, I discovered that the Master sheet used an area where the schedule was hand-coded to create the main calculation. (sigh) So I automated it to update it for this year and had to re-update those certain weeks mentioned above. This gave me a new-but-also-old Super Bowl prediction.

Conference									Conference
N3	MIN								JAX	A3
			NFC		Super Bowl		AFC
		N3	MIN		MIN		PIT	A1
				Champions
N1	PHI								PIT	A1
					Super Bowl
		N1	PHI		JAX		JAX	A3
					^Alternate^

The alternate is included because there is a disagreement between the two columns that I thought used the same calculation. One variation is in an AFC divisional playoff and puts either New England or Jacksonville into the Conference Championship. Regardless, however, Pittsburgh goes to the Super Bowl. The other is in the NFC Championship. If we do get the Battle of Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh would win.

Instead, my boy Cam Newton and his Panthers get their dream.

Conference									Conference
N4	CAR								TEN	A5
			NFC		Super Bowl		AFC
		N4	CAR		CAR		TEN	A5
				Champions
N3	MIN								JAX	A3

Sorry, Cam, you know you're still my angel. Also, I like what you're doing with your hair.