Sunday, September 24, 2017

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Three Upsets

For the first time since August..... uhhhhhhhh.... pre-Harvey, pre-Summer Vacay.... August 13, back when I REALLY wasn't ready for some football, I had another Persian lesson. Next week, we are doing Saturday so I don't have to miss the games unless I decide to go for a walk during game time.

Tonight, I'm watching Washington route Oakland, but that's not the only unexpected result this week. New Orleans got their first win, as did the Jets and Chicago. Buffalo also defeated Denver, which were suprises for everyone this week. As games that sort of went my way, Minnesota managed to defeat Tampa Bay, despite not having Bradford, Indy held on against a beefed up Cleveland, Atlanta won over Detroit... Well, let me show you. Notice the four games where Upset Probable = Yes. There are no upsets that were not predicted somehow except for Chicago, but the only point that has is that it was on their home turf.

CalculationsBenchmarksMetrics
Actual WinnerOfficialUpset ProbableCalc 2 YearsCalc 3 YearsH&A 2 YearsGutFootball LocksNFLPwr RanksWinsHome
LALANoLALALALALALALASF
JAXBALNoBALBALBALJAXBALBALBALJAX
INDINDNoINDINDINDINDCLECLEINDIND
PHINYGNoNYGPHIPHIPHIPHIPHIPHIPHI
NYJMIAYesMIAMIAMIAMIAMIAMIAMIANYJ
BUFDENYesBUFBUFDENDENDENDENDENBUF
NOCARNoCARNOCARCARCARCARCARCAR
CHIPITNoPITPITPITPITPITPITPITCHI
ATLATLNoATLATLATLDETATLATLDETDET
MINMINNoTBTBMINTBTBTBMINMIN
NENENoNENENENENENENENE
TENSEANoSEASEASEATENTENSEATENTEN
GBGBNoGBGBGBGBGBGBGBGB
KCKCNoKCKCKCKCKCKCKCSD
???OAKYesOAKOAKOAKOAKOAKOAKOAKWAS
???DALYesARIARIARIARIDALDALARIARI

Ah [bleep], Carr just got sacked and Washington is now up 21-0. This is just all bad. Unless Oakland can mount a MASSIVE comeback, which they won't, and predicting that Dallas will implode on the road again, this was the week to bet on the home team.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Oh Yeah, Football: Week Two I'm Finally Ready

Phew. THE CHAOS IS RECEDING AND MY WEEKEND WAS VERY NORMAL.

Ahem, I mean, yeah. I can use my kitchen again, my living room is not full of furniture, each load of laundry is being washed only once before being put in the dryer, and I'm watching football on a Sunday while putting the scores into the spreadsheet.

Last week, my calculation got 67% correct and Gut was 73%. The benchmarks were 67% and 47%.

I wasn't surprised to hear that Houston defeated Cincinnati on Thursday. Just like Houston can't defeat New England, Cincinnati can't defeat Houston, especially at home.

Then all of the early games lined up with my calculation. In truth, the only game that didn't line up all day was the Cowpokes implosion in Denver. Yes, my Packers lost, even after sneakily allowing the Falcons to get a (nearly) 25 point lead on them mid-way into the 3rd, but my calculation had Atlanta. This means that the worst my calculation can do is 88%, which is the best just one of my benchmarks can do. 


Oh, and now I'm 80% on the season. The calculation has the Giants tomorrow and as the NFC Champs in February.

Friday, September 15, 2017

Oh Yeah, Football: Week One Playoff Prediction

I spent a few hours tonight doing data entry and I have my pre-Week 1 playoff predictions.


Wild CardWild Card
N6ATLDivisionalDivisionalBALA6
N4CARConferenceConferenceMIAA5
N3ARIN3ARINEA2PITA3
N1DALNFCSuper BowlAFCOAKA1
N1DALOAKOAKA1
N2MINChampionsNEA2
N5NYGN1DALOAKA1MIAA5
N3ARIPITA3
N4CARINDA4

You know, for the record. This should be tagged with "Things that aren't going to happen."

But wait a second! The Miami Tampa Bay game was canceled and rescheduled for week 11, which changes everything. Now that I spent over an hour correcting for that, or maybe less than an hour, whatever, I now have THIS prediction, also in things that are very unlikely to happen.


Wild CardWild Card
N6ATLDivisionalDivisionalMIAA6
N4CARConferenceConferenceINDA4
N3ARIN3ARINEA2PITA3
N1DALNFCSuper BowlAFCOAKA1
N3ARIARIOAKA1
N2MINChampionsNEA2
N5NYGN1DALOAKA1KCA5
N3ARIPITA3
N4CARINDA4

So now you know. For the 500th year in a row, it's "Arizona's year".