Sunday, June 5, 2016

The Running Game: Earlier Projections

The 2015 season, Free Agency, and Draft have all completed, and that means that about half of my initial calculation for predicting the winners and losers of Week 1 is ready. By projecting the other half of the points, filling in the schedules, and adding some very low and impossible point values to create potentially realistic Mid-Season calculation results, I can make an early prediction for the 2016 playoffs.

Wild CardWild Card
N6NYGDivisionalDivisionalPITA6
N4PHIConferenceConferenceKCA5
N3MINN3MINCINA2NEA3
N1CARNFCSuper BowlAFCOAKA1
N1CAROAKOAKA1
N2ARIChampionsCINA2
N5SEAN1CAROAKA1KCA5
N3MINNEA3
N4PHIJAXA4

One thing I haven't done is update the rank-based color scheme for each team, so the current colors are based on the relative rank of the team at the beginning of the 2015 season. The colors range from dark red for "very bad" through orange, yellow, and light green to dark green for "very good".

Now, my numbers don't lie. They may not know what they're talking about, but they don't knowingly lie. So the fact that FootballLocks has Oakland at 40 to 1 odds of winning Super Bowl LI shouldn't stop you from putting all your money on the Raiders to go all the way. What should stop you from doing that is that this is the result from less than half of my entire calculation and we're a full 3 months away from the start of the Regular Season. I mean, I wish them the best, but if Oakland gets to the big game, I will eat my hat. Well, first I will get a hat, and then I will eat it.